The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● VA-Gov: A quartet of polls of Tuesday's gubernatorial race in Virginia popped up on Friday, and they all show a close race between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie, but unfortunately, none of them are from outfits we're especially fond of. The numbers:
- Øptimus (R):
Northam: 40, Gillespie: 37 Northam: 37, Gillespie: 40
- Rasmussen: Northam: 45, Gillespie 45
- Roanoke College: Northam: 47, Gillespie: 47
- The Polling Company (R): Northam 43, Gillespie 45
Both Øptimus and The Polling Company (which was owned by Kellyanne Conway until September) are Republican firms, and they have limited public track records. Rasmussen's years-long crumminess, by contrast, is well-known.
As for Roanoke, they've frequently missed the mark in their home state. In the last gubernatorial election, most pollsters overestimated Democrat Terry McAuliffe's standing, but Roanoke's final poll was the wrongest, saying McAuliffe would win by 15 (he won by 2.5). They also overstated Hillary Clinton's performance last year, figuring her a 9-point winner when she prevailed by 5. But Roanoke has also gotten it wrong in the other direction, most notably in 2012, when they said that Mitt Romney would carry Virginia by 5 points, even though he went on to lose by 4.
Any way you slice it, though, it's a close race, and averaging recent polls puts Northam up around 3 points. Just a few more days ….
Senate
● CA-Sen: Recent news reports indicated that political commentator Cenk Uygur, who hosts the news show "The Young Turks," and co-host Ana Kasparian were each considering challenging Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, but neither had said as much publicly. However, CNN reports that Kasparian has decided not to run and Uygur is backing progressive activist Alison Hartson, who just launched an extremely longshot bid in this huge state. Feinstein already faces a far more serious challenge from state Senate President Kevin de Léon, a fellow Democrat.
● NV-Sen: GOP Sen. Dean Heller is signaling that, unlike Bob Corker and Jeff Flake, he won't be retiring into the night. Heller is out with the first ad in a TV campaign far ahead of his primary with Danny Tarkanian: There is no word on the size of the buy, but the Washington Examiner's David M. Drucker describes it as "sustained statewide television and targeted digital advertising." The minute-long ad features Heller talking to the audience and saying he demanded the Senate leadership keep the chamber in session "until we fill every judicial vacancy with a conservative judge who will follow the Constitution" and pass tax reform. (Clearly, he has not succeeded). Heller then complains that, while Trump is sending conservative nominees, Democrats are holding things up.
Gubernatorial
● MD-Gov: On Friday, Sen. Chris Van Hollen endorsed Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker in the crowded Democratic primary to face GOP Gov. Larry Hogan. Last cycle, Baker endorsed Van Hollen in his Senate primary against Rep. Donna Edwards, who also hailed from Prince George's.
● NJ-Gov: Rasmussen: Phil Murphy (D): 50, Kim Guadagno (R): 35
● NV-Gov: Freedom Partners, a member of the Koch brothers' political network, has announced that they're launching a $1 million TV and digital ad campaign in support of Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Their spot, which comes well ahead of next year's GOP primary, argues that unlike other politicians, Laxalt is a doer not a talker. The spot hits some pretty nonpartisan themes, with the narrator praising Laxalt for "protecting seniors against fraud, fighting for a good education for every child, and standing up against higher taxes." Laxalt is the favorite in the primary against Treasurer Dan Schwartz.
On the Democratic side, Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak received an endorsement from Rep. Dina Titus, who represents what is by far the bluest congressional district in the state. Ex-Sen. Harry Reid, an intra-party rival of Titus, is also in Sisolak's corner. However, Jon Ralston says that Sisolak and Titus are close, and her move is more personal than political. Sisolak is competing in the primary with fellow Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, who is running to his left.
House
● HI-01: On Thursday, state Rep. Beth Fukumoto told supporters that she was considering seeking the Democratic nomination for this open Honolulu seat. Fukumoto has been elected three times to the state House as a Republican, and she was the leader of the very small GOP caucus until this year.
However, Fukumoto made national headlines when she participated in a local Women's March and spoke out against Trump in January, and later was removed from her leadership post. A few months later, Fukumoto announced that she was leaving the GOP, and she became a Democrat not long after. So far, state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, the 2014 primary runner up, is the only Democrat who has filed to run for this 63-31 Clinton seat, though a few others have expressed interest.
● OH-16: State Rep. Christina Hagan has had trouble fundraising in the GOP primary for this very red Canton-area seat seat, and at the end of September, she had considerably less money than state Rep. Tom Patton and especially former football player Anthony Gonzalez. Hagan may be hoping that a very early ad campaign will help her get attention and turn things around, and she's launched a cable and internet buy; there's no word on how much money Hagan is putting behind it, with her consultant only saying the buy is "meaningful." There's a copy of an internet ad, where Hagan talks about keeping coastal elites from taking guns away, but no link to the TV version yet.
● TX-05: The GOP may have their first notable candidate for this safely red open seat before too long. State Sen. Bryan Hughes' camp tells the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek that he will decide "very soon." Only a very small portion of Hughes' rural East Texas seat is in the 5th District, but The Dallas News' Gromer Jeffers Jr. recently wrote that Hughes "enjoys ardent support from social conservatives and tea-party adherents."
However, while there was talk of GOP power players trying to convince Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Phillip Huffines to drop his campaign for state Senate and run here instead Huffines never sounded very interested. Huffines' consultant has now released a statement definitively saying he's running for the legislature and not for anything else. Huffines' twin brother, state Sen. Don Huffines, has also been name-dropped as a potential candidate, but the statement says that both Huffines look forward to serving in the next legislature, so we can likely cross his name off the list. The filing deadline is Dec. 11, so potential candidates don't have long to decide. This seat takes up part of the Dallas suburbs, though the bulk of the conservative vote is in the rural areas east of the city.
● TX-21: GOP Rep. Lamar Smith's retirement announcement came as a surprise, but with just over a month to go before the Dec. 11 filing deadline, potential candidates don't have long to make up their minds. Bexar County GOP Chair Robert Stovall, the owner of a floral business, says he is considering.
However, while state Sen. Donna Campbell's spokesperson said right after Smith made his announcement that she would "carefully and prayerfully consider what is best for her and the district," Campbell tweeted the next day that she had "no plans" to run for Congress and "am firmly committed to serving the people of Texas in the Texas Senate." "No plans," isn't the same thing as a no, of course. However, Campbell's seat is up next year, so it does sound like she's far more likely to run for re-election than for Congress. Smith's seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio, went from 60-38 Romney to 52-42 Trump, and it could be a Democratic target in a very good environment.
Other Races
● Westchester County, NY Executive: We have our first, and perhaps only, independent poll of Tuesday's race to lead this large suburban county. Applied Technonomics, polling on behalf of local media, gives Democratic state Sen. George George Latimer a 46-43 lead over Republican incumbent Rob Astorino. The only other poll we've seen here was a Latimer internal from a week ago that gave him a bare 47-46 edge.
Grab Bag
● Babka: It's that wonderful time of the year again! Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new prediction contest, with delicious chocolate babka from the exceptional Green's Bakery as our prize!
To enter, you must have had a Daily Kos account on or before Oct. 31. You will also need to provide your email address so that we can contact you if you win (we'll only use this information to contact winners). The deadline for submitting predictions is 6 PM ET Tuesday, Nov. 7—one hour before the first polls close. You may submit as many predictions as you want, but only the last one received before the deadline will be scored. We'll be asking you to beat the spread on three major races, predict the winners in several others, and predict how many of the 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates Democrats will win on Tuesday.
We've also put together an hour-by-hour guide of what races to watch across the country on Tuesday, as well as a preview of the Virginia House landscape. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections, starting at 7 PM ET, and tweeting as well. Until then (well, an hour before then), go out and earn that babka!