The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MN-Sen-B: On Wednesday, Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton announced that he would name his lieutenant governor, Tina Smith, to the Senate seat that will soon be vacated by Sen. Al Franken, who said last week that he would resign in the face of multiple sexual harassment allegations. Franken didn't offer a precise timetable for his departure, but he said that he'd leave office "in the coming weeks"; when he does, Minnesota will become just the sixth state ever (and only the fourth currently, along with California, New Hampshire, and Washington) to boast an all-woman Senate delegation.
Campaign Action
Smith also said she'd run for the final two years of Franken's term in 2018, and she's already consolidated support from much of the Democratic establishment. Following Dayton's announcement, she earned praise from her soon-to-be-fellow Sen. Amy Klobuchar, as well as Reps. Keith Ellison (who specifically endorsed her for next year's special election), Betty McCollum, Tim Walz, Rick Nolan, and Collin Peterson. That's every Democrat who currently represents Minnesota in Congress, suggesting Smith is unlikely to face a primary challenge.
Her appointment isn't without concerns, though. When Smith's name was first floated a week ago, she reportedly was not interested in running in the special election that will be held next November. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, though, was reportedly unhappy at the prospect of Dayton picking a placeholder, preferring that he choose someone who'd capitalize on the advantages offered by a year of incumbency, and so therefore pushed him to pick a candidate who'd actually run in 2018.
That candidate turned out to be … Tina Smith, suggesting that perhaps she had to be pushed into doing something she wasn't otherwise inclined to do. If so, that's unfortunate: You always want your office-seekers to actually want to seek office, and there's a large number of other Democratic women in Minnesota who've made it clear they are eager to run statewide, such as Attorney General Lori Swanson, who is still considering a bid for governor, or state Auditor Rebecca Otto, who actually is running for governor. And unlike a Swanson or an Otto, Smith has never been elected in her own right: The only time she ever appeared on a ballot was on a joint ticket with Dayton as his running-mate in 2014.
Then there's the matter of who will succeed Smith. Under the state constitution, the job would now fall to the president of the state Senate, Michelle Fischbach—who's a Republican. That's a dangerous move, because god forbid something should happen to Dayton (who is 70 years old, has twice fainted in public, and was treated for prostate cancer earlier this year) during his final year in office, the GOP would wind up with complete control of the state's government for the first time in several decades. Even Dayton himself acknowledged that this scenario is "a valid concern." (Suffice it to say that Republicans would never put themselves at risk in such a way if the situation were reversed.)
Fischbach is making life even more complicated by insisting she plans to keep her current job while simultaneously serving as lieutenant governor. Fischbach claims there's precedent for such an arrangement, despite the obvious separation-of-powers problem it presents, while Democrats say that a 1972 amendment to the constitution precludes Fischbach from holding both positions at once. Litigation seems likely.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: Two years ago, in an extraordinary campaign that had more than a few parallels to Tuesday's Alabama Senate race, Democrat John Bel Edwards defeated scandal-tarred Republican David Vitter 56-44 to become governor of Louisiana. Edwards has posted good approval numbers throughout the first half of his term, but no matter what, Bayou State Republicans will want to give him a strong challenge in 2019 in this conservative state.
On Tuesday, Rep. Ralph Abraham told the USA Today Network that he was considering running and knows that he'd need to decide "sometime in the next quarter or second quarter at the latest." Abraham did not say whether he'd seek re-election in 2018 if he decided to run for governor the following year. Abraham, who holds a safely red seat in northeastern Louisiana, has been a generally low-key member since he was elected in 2014. He was a practicing physician before that, and he flew Hurricane Harvey missions for the Air Force this year. While Abraham likely starts with little name recognition outside rural northern Louisiana, he has a very different profile than Vitter, a consummate political insider who never recovered from his 2007 prostitution scandal.
State Attorney General Jeff Landry, a former House member who has clashed repeatedly with Edwards, has also been mentioned as a possible GOP candidate, but he tweeted on Wednesday that "Ralph Abraham would make a great governor, sure we could count on his pro life record," so it looks like he'd defer to the congressman. A number of other Republicans have been mentioned as potential candidates, including freshman Sen. John Kennedy. Kennedy won his seat in 2016 after two unsuccessful tries (including a 2004 bid as a Democrat), but he seems already interested in giving up the post he spent so long pursuing. When asked this week if he would run for governor, Kennedy only said, "I don't have any comment on it," a rare deflection from a politician who usually loves to give the press a juicy quote. The Advocate's Stephanie Grace also says Rep. Garret Graves and state Sen. Sharon Hewitt are "just a few of the other names that are circulating."
House
● AZ-08: The filing deadline for the special election to succeed disgraced ex-GOP Rep. Trent Franks is Jan. 10, and we should see a lot of potential candidates make up their minds quickly. This suburban Phoenix seat backed Trump 58-37, so whoever wins the Feb. 27 GOP primary will be the clear favorite in the April 24 general election.
Ex-state Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump, state Sen. Steve Montenegro, and a few lesser-known Republicans quickly announced they were in, and they got some company on Thursday when ex-state Rep. Phil Lovas announced he was in. Several other Republicans have expressed interest, and we won't need to wait much longer for two of them to decide. State Rep. Darrin Mitchell said this week he'd "decide shortly," while state Sen. Debbie Lesko said she'd make up her mind at the end of the week.
We also have not one, but two polls of hypothetical GOP primaries. First up is the GOP firm OH Predictive Insights, polling on behalf of the local ABC affiliate:
Ex-state Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump: 18
State Sen. Debbie Lesko: 16
Maricopa County Commissioner Clint Hickman: 15
State Sen. Kimberly Yee: 7
Lovas, Montenegro, and several other people each took 2 percent of the vote or less.
The GOP firm Data Orbital, which did not identify a client, showed a similar result:
Lesko: 15
Stump: 10
Hickman: 9
Yee: 7
Montenegro: 4
Lovas: 2
But while Lovas and Montenegro barely registered in either poll, both may have some allies who could help them get their names out. As we've noted before, Lovas' wife is one of the top GOP fundraisers in the state. Lovas also headed Trump's Arizona campaign last year and resigned from the legislature in April to go to the national Small Business Agency.
Montenegro was endorsed by infamous ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio this week. While Arpaio badly lost re-election 56-44 last year, he's very popular with Trump fans, and he could help Montenegro in a primary. Montenegro also says he has the endorsement of his old boss Trent Franks, which he seems to think is a good thing.
● OH-12: Republican state Rep. Mike Duffey had previously been mentioned as a possible candidate to replace outgoing GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi but hadn't said anything publicly about it before. He recently told cleveland.com, "As it currently stands, I do not plan to run for Congress." That isn't a firm "no," but Duffey stated that he "will be watching the field in hope that a candidate emerges whom I can support," which leaves the door open to running himself if no other Republican meets his standards. This suburban Columbus-area district favored Trump by 53-42.
● TX-27: Republican ex-Rep. Ron Paul, who represented a decent chunk of this Victoria and Corpus Christi district for many years, has endorsed former Victoria County party chair Michael Cloud. Former Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun filed to run just before the Dec. 11 deadline, and he and Cloud both look like the most notable primary challengers to scandal-tarred Rep. Blake Farenthold. However, Farenthold can't count on divided opposition to win renomination with a mere plurality, since Texas requires primary runoffs if no candidate tops 50 percent.
● Texas: Candidate recruitment is one of the key signs of whether a potential wave election is building for one party or the other, and the surge in enthusiasm among Democrats to run for the House in 2018 is yet another reason why the national political environment is poised to favor Team Blue in a big way. Filing has now closed in Texas, and Democrats have astonishingly managed to have candidates file for all 36 congressional seats, including the 25 that Republicans currently hold. Just last cycle, Texas Democrats left eight Republicans unchallenged, and in 2014 that number was seven; the party hasn't contested every seat since at least 1992. Meanwhile, state legislative Democrats are also contesting a much higher number of districts than in past cycles, including 14 of 15 state Senate seats up next year and 133 of all 150 state House seats; the GOP has majorities of 20-11 and 85-55 in those chambers, respectively.
Fielding a candidate in every race might seem like the bare minimum that a major party is expected to do, but the high hurdles to getting on the ballot frequently deter candidates from running in seemingly hopeless races. That so many Democrats are willing to spend the time, energy, and money needed to run illustrates the party's enthusiasm edge. Just last month, Virginia Democrats ran candidates in a far larger than usual number of GOP-held state House seats, and it foreshadowed the historic 15 seats that Team Blue gained amid 2017's wave election in the state. Not all of these Texas Democrats will have the money and connections needed to run a strong race, but you can't win if you don't try. And as Sen.-elect Doug Jones' victory in Alabama shows, sometimes a seemingly hopeless race will suddenly become winnable for unexpected reasons, and candidates can only capitalize on these opportunities if they’re already running.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We had another special election on Tuesday in a red seat! Via Johnny Longtorso:
Iowa SD-03: Republicans held on to this seat. State Rep. Jim Carlin defeated Democrat Todd Wendt by a 55-45 margin. Though Democrats didn't win here, it still represented a large swing from 2016, when Donald Trump carried the district 68-27, and from Mitt Romney's 60-39 win in 2012.
Mayoral
● San Francisco, CA Mayor: San Francisco Board of Supervisors President London Breed became acting mayor on Tuesday following Mayor Ed Lee's shocking death, and we'll learn in June who will serve the final years of Lee's term. While we initially wrote that there would only be a special election in June if a majority of the Board of Supervisors couldn't agree on a candidate, there will be a special then no matter what. The filing deadline is Jan. 9, so potential candidates need to make up their minds quickly. The winner will be up for re-election in November of 2019.
San Francisco elects its mayor through an instant runoff system, where voters are allowed to rank their choices. If no one takes a majority of first-place votes, then second and third choices are redistributed from the candidates with the fewest votes to those still remaining. In 2011, when Lee ran for his first full term after serving most of the year as interim mayor, he was elected in the 12th round. Whoever prevails in June will likely be a Democrat, though in 2003, Gavin Newsom only narrowly beat future Green Party vice presidential candidate Matt Gonzalez. City politics is often defined by the battle between moderates (who would be considered liberals almost anywhere else in the United States) and progressives.
Several candidates were laying the groundwork to run in 2019, and at least one is going forward with his plans. Ex-state Sen. Mark Leno, who represented the entire city until he was termed-limited out of office last year, had already announced months ago he was running to succeed Lee, and he soon confirmed he'd run in the special election. The San Francisco Chronicle also wrote that philanthropist Daniel Lurie had talked about a 2019 bid, while termed-out Supervisors Mark Farrell and Jane Kim, state Sen. Scott Wiener (who beat Kim last year 51-49 to succeed Leno in the state Senate), and City Attorney Dennis Herrera were all mentioned. All four office-holders deflected questions Tuesday about their plans for the special.
Breed also was a likely candidate for 2019, and there's a good chance she'll run in June. The Board of Supervisors is scheduled to return on Jan. 9 (the same day as the candidate filing deadline), and they'll likely vote on a new interim mayor then. If a majority of the Board agrees on a candidate (whether it be Breed or someone else), that person will become interim mayor until after the June special election. If no one takes a majority, however, Breed will remain acting mayor until voters select a new person. Breed is associated with the moderate faction on the Board, which holds a majority, and she has the support of much of the local political establishment. This includes Sen. Kamala Harris, a former San Francisco district attorney and longtime Breed ally. While nothing's guaranteed, Breed appears favored to become interim mayor.
The difference between Breed being acting mayor or interim mayor might sound trivial, but there's one strange quirk to all this. Breed would not need to leave the Board of Supervisors if she were only serving as acting mayor, so if she ran for mayor in June and lost, she'd just go back to her old job. But Breed would need to resign her Board seat if she were selected to be interim mayor, so she'd be out of a job if she lost in June.
Other Races
● TX-AG: GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton was indicted in the summer of 2015 for securities fraud, and it's anyone's guess when he'll go to trial. The Dallas News' Lauren McGaughy reports that a major decision is expected soon on a related lawsuit filed by Paxton's allies against the prosecution, and it will likely delay his trial date even more. In the meantime, Paxton is running for re-election, and with candidate filing closed, he has no primary foe whatsoever.
On the Democratic side, Justin Nelson, an attorney who specializes in major civil litigation, also has the primary to himself. Beating Paxton is going to be incredibly tough in this red state even with all his problems, but as Roy Moore's Tuesday loss demonstrated, it's always good to have a credible candidate ready in case things go crazy.
● TX Land Commissioner: George P. Bush, a son of Jeb! Bush, was easily elected Texas land commissioner in 2014 after GOP incumbent Jerry Patterson left to unsuccessfully run for lieutenant governor. Land commissioner is usually a low-profile job, but Bush has been mentioned as a rising star in state GOP politics for a long time. However, Patterson announced just before this week's filing deadline that he would challenge Bush in the primary to get his old job back.
Patterson argued that Bush has mishandled the housing recovery after Hurricane Harvey. Patterson also blasted his successor for turning the Alamo preservation project to secretive nonprofit entities. It's far from clear if GOP primary voters agree with Patterson, or if the Bush family will finally have something to smile about in what's been a horrible few years for them politically. A few minor Republicans are also running, so it's possible that no one will take the majority of the vote in the March primary they need to win without a May runoff.
