The vast cultural schism, not economics, has driven white rural voters away from the Democratic Party – perhaps forever.
I recently visited Hillsboro, Ohio, a small town of 6,600 in southern Ohio. Hillsboro is the county seat of Highland County (population 46,000), which voted 76% for Donald Trump in 2016. What I learned was frightening for those who believe in the liberal policies and underlying morality represented by the Democratic Party.
My visit helped confirm my fear that rural white Americans - in areas far beyond the south - have permanently abandoned the Democrats in staggering numbers. It’s not because of policy; if these citizens really looked, they’d find the Democrats’ economic and healthcare agendas and “families before corporations” values would be to their liking. Instead, huge numbers of white rural America believe Democrats stand for an America which they don’t recognize, which they fear, and which they resent.
In the mainstream media, Hillsboro has become synonymous with Gary Abernathy, the savvy publisher-editor of the local newspaper, the Times-Gazette.
Abernathy combines first class journalistic credentials with old school conservative politics. (He is a former Executive Director of the West Virginia Republican GOP.)
Most importantly, Abernathy possesses uncanny insight about what makes white rural Americans tick. In January 2016, he published a prescient editorial which predicted a Trump victory, and nailed the reasons for his popularity.
“This year, Republican voters care about the economy, terrorism and immigration. Many conservative voters have also reached the point of being extremely annoyed with political correctness . . . Trump’s open contempt for all things politically correct are a big draw to millions of voters.”
Gary Abernathy — January 25, 2016
Abernathy also gained widespread attention in October 2016, when the Times-Gazette became one of just six newspapers in America to endorse the man later referred to by his own Secretary of State as a “f***ing moron”. Here are the 58 infamous words from the Times-Gazette that day:
“Despite his obvious flaws . . . Donald Trump best represents the drastic shakeup that Washington needs, and best reflects the conservative fiscal and social issue values that are important to the people of southern Ohio. His focus on securing America’s borders and defeating radical Islamic terrorism is the kind of decisive attitude needed in the White House.”
Gary Abernathy — October 21, 2016
Since the election, Abernathy has – to his own astonishment – become something of a media personality. Abernathy is so gracious, genuine and articulate that he is a curiosity for the media (much like J.D. Vance of Hillbilly Elegy fame – another native southern Ohio ‘splainer of things liberals can’t understand).
Abernathy now writes a twice-monthly opinion column for the Washington Post, which is widely syndicated. He has spoken at Columbia School of Journalism and is a frequent contributor on cable news shows. Reporters from the BBC and Japanese media have made pilgrimages to Hillsboro to meet with Abernathy.
I stopped by in Hillsboro at the (published) suggestion of Abernathy. In one of his recent WaPo columns he challenged:
“Please, Big Media, come visit us in Trump country . . . discover a landscape that is breathtaking in its physical beauty, and residents who are welcoming, industrious, smart, interesting and, yes, opinionated.”
Gary Abernathy (in the Washington Post) — November 9, 2017
I emailed Abernathy that I was a liberal blogger and wanted to take him up on his suggestion. I made clear my bias and my disdain for both Trump and his supporters. Abernathy replied immediately, and we then engaged in an interesting dialog.
To my surprise, I found that while we disagree on virtually every aspect of policy, Abernathy is wise enough to realize that the tide of history is in liberals’ favor. He has written that conservatism is a philosophy designed to slow down change, but unable to halt it entirely.
“Liberalism is the natural progression of the world; conservatism is the ‘hey, not so fast’ drag on the inevitable outcome. Conservatism delays, never vanquishes . . .”
Gary Abernathy
In Hillsboro, Abernathy and I chatted in his office. We agreed that it was the cultural divide, not economics, which primarily created the Trump phenomenon. It’s not that people in Highland County are actually affected by immigration, or terrorism (when was the last attack on U.S. soil in a small town?), or even political correctness run amok. But they voted for Trump largely because of those subjects, and the fears and resentments they engendered.
I believe that a large swath of the white population in Hillsboro (and thousands of places like it around the country) simply believe that America is no longer a place they recognize. And they don’t like it.
Many of these people are filled with an underlying fear and resentment of how America has changed, and will continue to evolve in the future. Or perhaps they have nostalgia for the days when America was whiter and straighter, where women knew their place, and where football players didn’t celebrate touchdowns by pounding their chests.
In either case, a huge number of rural whites see the Democratic Party as the embodiment of this “different” country. Democrats represent the city-oriented segment of America that treasures the value of immigrants, celebrates diversity, believes that terrorism is an infinitesimal daily threat (especially compared to gun violence or even traffic accidents), and recognizes that America’s leadership role in the world includes diplomacy and alliances. Democrats are elites who control the media and universities. They know evolution is a fact and ridicule those who believe otherwise. The elites accept scientific proof that Global Warming is a dire threat to the planet. The elites speak with proper grammar, and use big words. These are the Democrats.
Most people in rural America also share disdain about some other subjects that even many liberals agree with:
- They despise our political process. They believe our system creates monotonous, cowardly drones for candidates, who say nothing and do even less. They believe the political and economic system unfairly rewards people with money, influence and access to power.
- They believe political correctness has created an environment where no one can take a joke, and everyone must walk on eggshells less they offend with a “micro-aggression”. A movie like Blazing Saddles – which hilariously satirizes virtually every ethnicity - could never be made today. And no one ever defiantly says to a verbal tormentor anymore: “sticks and stones can break my bones, but words can never hurt me.”
Donald Trump tapped into this fear and resentment in a way no other politician ever did. In my view, millions of white Americans voted against their own self-interest in 2016, simply to make a point of sticking it to the “elites”. I equate it to the black Washingtonians who once re-elected Marion Barry, even after his videotaped drug arrest, seemingly just to give the finger to “whitey”.
My visit to Hillsboro reinforces that this cultural chasm is so deep that I don’t see a way across. To his credit, Gary Abernathy encourages dialogue, but I don’t see white rural fear and resentment changing, even as evolving demographics make our prosperous population centers ever more blue.
And don’t expect the Russia investigation, no matter how egregious its findings or numerous its indictments, to make a difference either. Short of another Great Recession or multiple American troops in body bags, white rural Americans will stick with Trump no matter how he debases his office and vaporizes the norms of common decency.
The concentration of Democratic voters in coastal states and big cities forebodes an Electoral map requiring national popular vote margins for Democratic Presidential candidates of 4-5% just to reach 270 electoral votes. It also means that – due to the skewed makeup of the House and Senate (favoring rural areas and smaller states), Republican representatives will continue to control policy agendas far out of line with a sizeable majority of Americans, be it gun safety, abortion rights, or the role of government in protecting the environment, ensuring affordable healthcare, empowering common citizens, promoting economic fairness and opportunity and enabling social justice.
A very scary thought indeed.