A conservative Republican columnist wrote it best, in the Washington Post a few weeks ago, when he lamented that the GOP should not be raising taxes on folks.
“Why are Republicans raising taxes on millions of Americans?”
This should never happen under unified Republican government. There are four words that no American should ever be able to utter: “Republicans raised my taxes.” … — Marc Thiessen , Nov 29
Vengeance on voters from Trump will come in the tax bill in front of Congress, exacting tax increases on millions of voters, in states and counties that voted against Trump (blue states mostly), in the 1st year after adoption. In the out-years, the hurt is larger, even more widespread.
The question is, why are Republican lawmakers, who usually vote only to slice taxes, going along with a plan that will sock it to a lot of people.
In your April 2019 tax bill, taxes are estimated to be higher, not lower, for about 7% of Americans on a nationwide basis. If you earn between $67K and $112K, about 1 in 12 Americans who are in that income class would pay more taxes, about $1,100 more (see full data, in xlsx spreadsheet). The impact hits harder in several states, while other states are mostly spared.
Even some of the lowest earning taxpayers would face the higher taxes, about 5% of them are at risk.
The damage in the out years is larger still, since a switched inflation measure inserted in the new law will bounce people into higher tax brackets than their initial tax brackets now. Also, several provisions to shave taxes are not written to extend after 2025 in the proposed bill. So even more people will pay more in taxes. In 2027, it looks like this.
See how specific states are hit, after the flip.
Reuters newswire assessed it right early in the process in November, declaring: “Democratic-leaning states are set to bankroll a big chunk of the tax cuts unveiled in a Republican tax plan ..., as the plan slashes deductions used the most by residents of states that voted against Donald Trump.”
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UPDATE — look over the new JCT (Joint Committee on Taxation) document published yesterday #JCX-68-17 — all the figures without a minus sign in front will be getting, a tax increase for their income class, on average. The first 3 income classes cover about 60 million tax returns. This shows how the bill will re-distribute post-tax income upwards. [JCT document download from here — see page 6]
JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION
December18, 2017
JCX-68-17
Above, shows averages, but lots of taxpayers in all income classes will get whacked with higher taxes, right from the start.
Here are the hits in April 2019 across some states >
In California, where Trump was trounced by voters in the 2016 election, 1 in 6 households (16%) that earn from $76K to $130K will pay higher taxes in the first year under the tax bill; in the lower-earning class of $48K to $75K, 1 in 12 (8%) will get socked. For the state as a whole, 11% will pay a bigger tax bite.
NOTE- All charts and income cutoffs, by state (or U.S), are sectioned by income class as:
First 20%
Second 20%
Middle 20%
Fourth 20%
Next 15%
Next 4%
Richest 1%
ALL
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In Connecticut — below — for the taxpayers who are in the upper-middle class (earnings about $84K to $140K in Ct. ), 1 in 6 will pay more income tax in 2019 under the new tax bill. For the middle 20% of taxpayers (about $49K to $83K), 1 in 9 (11%) will pay more.
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Lots of Maryland taxpayers will be hit hard right away. About 12% (1 in 8 taxpayers) in lower to middle income classes, and for households earning more than $130,000, 1 in 4 would pay more.
Likewise, in New Jersey, where Trump was rejected soundly. Both the middle-class, and even some in the country club set, will pay more.
And in Trump’s home state of NY, where Trump was routed by voters in November, 10% to 20% of taxpayers earning between around $40,000 up to $120,000 will be subject to a tax increase.
In purple Virginia, which has been turning bluer, about 1 in 12 taxpayers would need to fork over more in taxes. If you earn between $71,000 to $127,000, 1 in 9 taxpayers take the hit.
In Oregon, 1 in 12 overall would pay more in 2019. For households earning more than $115K and up to about $230K, about 1 in 5 may pay more.
Note, even some red states will not escape unscathed from pockets of taxpayers paying more. In North Carolina, for example, for the 4th highest income class ($60K to 99K) and the next 15% (about $100K to $217K), about 1 in 10 would pay higher taxes.
However, the most severe hits are in states whose education and infrastructure relies the most on state income and local property taxes (SALT): for example, California, Maryland, NJ and NY.
Note the SALT deduction has been granted generously to taxpayers — until now — for more than 100 years, since 1913.
Cutting the deduction now to $10,000 for individuals will destabilize state and local finances and housing markets and prices.
It is astonishing that Republican congressmen from CALIFORNIA (14 R’s), NEW YORK (9 R’s), NEW JERSEY (5 R’s), VIRGINIA (7 R’s), 1 Republican from MARYLAND would vote for a bill that would undermine finances for their own state.