The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● VA State House: Amazing news: After trailing Republican Del. David Yancey by 10 votes, unofficial results from Tuesday's recount in Virginia's 94th House District gave Democrat Shelly Simonds the win by a single vote—and broke the Republicans' two-decade-old majority in the House of Delegates.
Somewhat shockingly, it appears that House GOP leaders are preparing to concede rather than challenge the results of this recount. In a statement, top Republican officials said they "congratulate Delegate-elect Simonds" and "thank Delegate David Yancey for his distinguished service." However, with two more recounts looming and pending legal action in the 28th District, the final makeup of the House could yet change. But if the current situation holds, Democrats and Republicans will be at parity with 50 seats each in the 100-member chamber—with no one empowered to break ties.
So what happens next?
This scenario is not entirely without precedent, so while there are few hard and fast rules governing the situation, we have a pretty good idea of what has to happen when the Virginia House is evenly split between the parties.
After the 1997 elections and a few specials (the result of Republican Gov.-elect Jim Gilmore appointing Democrats to positions in his administration), Republicans held 49 seats in the House to the Democrats' 50, with one independent member caucusing with the GOP. The State Board of Elections, despite having a 2-1 Republican majority, resisted pressure from the governor and GOP lawmakers to expedite the certification of the results of the three special elections that boosted the Republican caucus to 50, so on the first day of the legislative session in early 1998, Democrats still had a majority in the chamber. That majority's last gasp was to elect Democratic speaker, allowing the party to control committee assignments and the chamber's agenda despite the even split.
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Republicans cried foul and engaged in some theatrics (turning their backs on the speaker's dais, pounding their desks and shouting "shame," that sort of thing), but there was nothing they could do. The next day, the special election results were certified, bumping the ranks of the GOP caucus to 50. Democrats and Republicans then negotiated a power-sharing agreement, under which 19 House standing committees had Democratic and Republican co-chairs and equal party representation. However, if the co-chairs of any standing committee could not agree on how to conduct committee business, a special rule kicked in: One party's chair would preside the first year of the biennium, and the other party's the second. That agreement was later obviated when Republicans won outright control of the House the following year.
This history indicates that the most likely scenario is that Democrats and Republicans somehow agree to elect a compromise House speaker, whose power will likely constrained by specific rules, and then enter into a power-sharing agreement. However, there's some uncertainty as to how this would all play out, even if we know the broad contours.
And if a federal judge orders a new election in House District 28, hold on to your butts: With House control at stake, it would likely be the most expensive special election Virginia's ever seen. A hearing in the case is set for Jan. 5, so even if a new election is ordered, it wouldn't be held before the legislative session convenes on Jan. 10. But if the judge declares the previous election results invalid, though, the Republican who appears to have won that seat couldn't be seated in the House, and the chamber's margin would stand at 50 Democrats and 49 Republicans until after the new results in the 28th could be certified by the Board of Elections—giving Democrats effective majority control for a good chunk of the legislative session, even if they lose the special election.
The significance of the fact that we're discussing the potential of power-sharing in the Virginia House cannot be overstated. Democrats went into the November elections down 66-34 in the chamber, and no prognosticators (including Daily Kos Elections) forecast a 16-seat pickup—underscoring the importance of supporting as many good candidates as possible in any election year, no matter how long the odds may seem.
Senate
● MN-Sen-B: On Tuesday, State Sen. Karin Housley became the first notable Republican to jump into the race for Minnesota's 2018 Senate special election for Democratic Sen. Al Franken's seat. Housley is a real estate agent who hails from Washington County in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, and she said she will abide by the party convention endorsement process, which plays such an important role in Minnesota party nominations. Housley's husband is Buffalo Sabres head coach and NHL Hall of Fame member Phil Housley, and their prominent last name among hockey fans probably can't hurt her chances in a big hockey state like Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Republican state Sen. Michelle Benson announced on Tuesday that she won't be running for the seat after having previously said she was considering it.
Gubernatorial
● MD-Gov: Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, who represents a House seat in voter-rich suburban Montgomery County, endorsed state Sen. Richard Madaleno in the Democratic primary in an endorsement video. The video was pulled from YouTube sometime on Tuesday, so it's possible someone posted it before it was ready to be publicized. Raskin and Madaleno are old friends, and Raskin had said he'd defer to his then-colleague during the 2016 election cycle when the 8th District was an open seat. However, Raskin ended up running and winning after Madaleno sat out that election. Madaleno faces a very crowded Democratic primary with several other big names for the right to take on GOP Rep. Larry Hogan.
● ME-Gov, ME-01: Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree had recently said she was considering running for governor next year, but she announced on Tuesday that she would instead run for a sixth term in the House. Pingree might have become the instant frontrunner given her tenure representing half of Maine in the coastal 1st District, but her decision to stay out of the contest still leaves a crowded Democratic primary. The current field includes state Attorney General Janet Mills, state Sen. Mark Dion, former state House Speaker Mark Eves, former state Sen. James Boyle, and businessman Adam Cote.
● WY-Gov: State House Speaker Steve Harshman is the latest Republican to say he's considering running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Matt Mead next year. Harshman, who is also a high school teacher and football coach, says he has no timeline for deciding. The filing deadline isn't until June 1, so Harshman could take some time to make up his mind.
No big names have jumped into the race so far, although little-known businessman Bill Dahlin has been running for months. However, Secretary of State Ed Murray, state Treasurer Mark Gordon, and well-connected attorney Harriet Hageman are all publicly considering whether to join the GOP primary.
House
● KS-03: Attorney Andrea Ramsey had been one of the leading Democratic candidates to take on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in this suburban Kansas City district, but she recently had to drop out of the primary over a sexual harassment scandal involving one of her former employees. Ramsey's departure shakes up the Democratic field, but she decided to endorse her former rival Brent Welder, who is a labor lawyer and former Bernie Sanders delegate to the Democratic National Convention in 2016.
Welder also earned an endorsement from former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who has taken on a nationally prominent role promoting voting rights following his narrow loss in last year's Senate election in the Show Me State. Welder only moved to Kansas from St. Louis in April, but it's unclear if voters will hold that against him. Teacher Tom Niermann and businessman Jay Sidie are also running in the Democratic primary for this 47-46 Clinton district, but Sidie has raised very little money despite being Team Blue's 2016 nominee.
● MA-07: Democratic Rep. Mike Capuano hasn't faced a serious primary challenge in this safely blue Boston-area seat since he was first elected in 1998, but that may be about to change. Politico's Lauren Dezenski, citing a source close to Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, reports that Pressley is "seriously considering" a bid against Capuano and has been calling donors. The source argues that those donors have told Pressley for years that "while they appreciate the work she's doing on the Council, they feel she could be doing more at a higher level."
Pressley, who is black, made history in 2009 when she became the first woman of color elected to the Boston City Council. Pressley has won re-election to a citywide seat every two years since then, and she's been mentioned as a candidate for higher office for a while. In 2015, EMILY's List notably named her as one of their Rising Stars.
The city of Boston makes up about two-thirds of this congressional district, so Pressley would likely start out with some good name recognition. The 7th District is by far the most racially diverse seat in the Commonwealth, which could also help a candidate like Pressley who has done very well with both black voters and upper-middle class white voters. About 41 percent of residents are non-Hispanic whites, while black residents make up 23 percent of the seats and Hispanics make up a similar proportion.
However, Capuano won't be easy to unseat in a September primary. The longtime congressman had $775,000 in the bank at the end of September, while Pressley would be starting from scratch. Capuano has a very liberal voting record and he hasn't been shy about going after Trump, and it's not clear what argument Pressley would make for why he should be replaced.
A recent poll may give us an idea for how Pressley would frame a primary challenge. The survey, which was not publicly released and which the source close to Pressley would not confirm was from her team, reportedly asked voters about the need for "fresh energy," constituent services, and opinions about challengers going after Democratic incumbents "even with good voting records."
● NJ-11: All four Democratic Party chairs for the four counties in North Jersey that contain the suburban 11th District have backed former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill in next year's Democratic primary. These county party endorsements are a huge deal in a state where party machines are still powerful, since the supported candidate will appear in a separate column on the ballot along with other party endorsees. Sherrill is a prodigious fundraiser, but she still faces businesswoman Tamara Harris for the nomination to take on Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen in this highly educated 49-48 Trump seat.
● NV-04, NV-03: Former Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford has finally spoken publicly to confirm that he's considering running for his old seat next year now that Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen isn't seeking a second term due to a sexual harassment scandal.
Horsford decisively won this seat back in 2012 when Nevada gained a new district during reapportionment, but abysmal turnout in the 2014 GOP midterm wave saw him lose in an upset to Republican Cresent Hardy. While that outcome simply may have been beyond his control, the Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston previously relayed that Horsford has had some recent health problems and is wary of losing a second time. This district, which includes Las Vegas' northern suburbs, went from 54-44 Obama to 50-45 Clinton, and while Team Blue should be favored to hold it in a good year, Horsford has reason to think he'd be by no means a shoo-in for a general election.
Another Democrat who says he's "strongly considering" running is North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, but he would likely receive a far colder reception among Democrats than other potential candidates. Lee served in the state Assembly and later in the state Senate for several years, where he developed a conservative voting record on key issues. Notably, progressives were unhappy with Lee for sponsoring a 2011 bill to get Nevada to withdraw from a partnership with California to govern environmental and development regulations for Lake Tahoe; opposing a law to extend rights to same-sex couples; backing budget cuts; supporting concessions on public employee bargaining; and being far to the right on reproductive rights.
In 2012, Lee had the support of then-Sen. Harry Reid, whose endorsement then and now carries a ton of weight in Nevada Democratic politics. Progressive groups mobilized around first-time candidate Pat Spearman, a black and openly gay veteran and minister, but even Lee's detractors didn't think she had much of a shot at beating him in the Democratic primary for a safely blue North Las Vegas seat. Lee outraised Spearman $200,000 to $13,000, and the Las Vegas Sun wrote that labor groups decided to stay neutral in the primary rather than aid Spearman in what they were convinced was a futile campaign. But in a shock, Spearman didn't just win, she unseated Lee 63-37. However, Lee's political career recovered very quickly. Lee unseated the mayor of North Las Vegas 54-35 less than a year later, and he won re-election 81-10 this April.
Lee says he "won't acquiesce to anyone if I decide to run" for Congress, but that he's also waiting to see how things turn out with Kihuen before reaching a decision. But Lee may end up facing Spearman again, since she previously said that she's "strongly leaning toward running" herself. However, Ralston believes that potential Democratic candidates will defer to Horsford if he decides to get in.
Meanwhile, Democratic state Sen. Yvanna Cancela doesn't sound so eager yet isn't quite ruling it out. Cancela was just appointed to the state Senate a year ago and is the former political director of the all-important Culinary Union, but she is also currently undertaking her first year of law school. Cancela recently told Ralston that she has "been approached about it but have been consumed with law school finals." While that isn't a firm "no," it would be hard to mount a campaign while continuing with school.
Finally, education activist and wealthy philanthropist Susie Lee confirmed she wouldn't switch over to the open 4th District from the open 3rd District, where she's currently running to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen. Lee had been recruited to run in the 3rd last cycle, but instead sought the bluer 4th. However, she lost the primary to Kihuen, and is now running in the 3rd this time with support from top party leaders.
● VA-06: Americans for Prosperity chief Tim Phillips has endorsed longtime state Del. Ben Cline for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Bob Goodlatte in the Shenandoah Valley-based 6th District, which is solidly Republican. AFP is the national political arm of the Koch Brothers organization, meaning Cline could gain access to a major network of wealthy conservative donors. Cline also earned the endorsement of state Sen. Dick Black, a notorious hardline social conservative who holds sway with like minded Republicans in Virginia political circles. Cline so far faces only Republican National Committeewoman Cynthia Dunbar in the primary.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, who was mercifully booted from his House seat in northern New Jersey last year, lost again on Tuesday when a Senate committee rejected his nomination to head up the Export-Import Bank by a 13-to-10 vote. It's a humiliating defeat, seeing as two of Garrett's fellow Republicans, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, both voted against him, but it's also not an especially surprising one.
Garrett, as a member of the nihilist Freedom Caucus, had long railed against the bank (which issues loans to U.S. exporters), and while he pretended to suddenly support it after Donald Trump put his name forward, few bought the ruse. (Rounds even said, "I believe he's a principled man who simply believes in the abolishment of the bank.") But even other Republicans from Garrett's home state don't seem displeased to see him go down in flames: Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who voted against the GOP's tax scheme that passed the same day, was overheard telling a colleague, "Well, we got some good news today—Garrett was voted down."
