The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: On Monday, Donald Trump gave his full-hearted endorsement to Republican nominee Roy Moore, whom several women have accused of molesting them when they were minors. Trump tweeted:
Democrats refusal to give even one vote for massive Tax Cuts is why we need Republican Roy Moore to win in Alabama. We need his vote on stopping crime, illegal immigration, Border Wall, Military, Pro Life, V.A., Judges 2nd Amendment and more. No to Jones, a Pelosi/Schumer Puppet!
This latest endorsement follows Trump's recent remarks attacking Democrat Doug Jones and telling Alabama voters not to elect a Democrat, but they're the most direct words yet in support of Moore himself. He's also planning a Friday campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida, which is conveniently just miles from the Alabama border. In a normal universe, it would be shocking to see the leader of the Republican Party endorse someone with credible allegations of sexually assaulting minors against them just to obtain tax cuts, but nothing more perfectly encapsulates what the modern Republican Party has become in the age of Trump.
Indeed, aiding and abetting Moore is the logical extreme of how the GOP treated Trump himself after it came to light how he bragged on tape about getting away with sexual assault. Many major Republicans swiftly called on Trump to drop out during that scandal only to quietly re-endorse him days or weeks later when it appeared he could win, and the same thing is now happening with Moore. Trump never called on Moore to quit the race, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did, and NRSC Chair Cory Gardner went even further by saying the Senate should expel Moore if he's elected.
Now, McConnell is changing his tune by claiming he's "going to let the people of Alabama make the call." McConnell and Senate Republicans must walk a fine line by not too openly associating with Moore, but fear of the same rabid primary electorate that gave Moore the nomination in Alabama is almost certainly going to weigh on their minds if it comes to a vote to expel him from the chamber. Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of Moore only makes things even riskier for Republicans, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them quickly try to brush Moore under the carpet if he gets elected and hope the media ignores him. Indeed, some Alabama voters themselves will be able to play this game of make believe by voting the straight-ticket "Republican" option and still have it count for Moore, even though he's the only Republican on the ballot.
Establishment Republicans may be drifting back toward Moore thanks to his buoying poll numbers, which in turn can signal to wavering Moore voters that it's okay to support him, causing his poll numbers to rise higher. YouGov on behalf of CBS is the latest firm to find Moore ahead, giving him a 49-43 lead over Jones. This marks YouGov's first survey of the general election, so there's no trend line with which to compare this survey. However, it is consistent with other surveys from JMC Analytics, Change Research, and other pollsters that have shown Moore regaining a modest advantage.
Campaign Action
Nevertheless, polling isn't all good news for the Moore campaign. The Washington Post and George Mason University's Schar School have partnered up to commission their first survey of the race from Abt Associates, which shows Jones with a 50-47 edge. With so many possibilities for error and the difficulties of polling a December special election, it shouldn't be surprising if the polling consensus is off badly in this race. While Moore appears to have regained some of the ground he lost in the immediate wake of the scandal, it's just too difficult to say whether that has been enough support to put him back in a favored position given the existing uncertainties.
Meanwhile, Jones continues to press his advantage on the airwaves. His latest ad, which ran during the widely watched SEC football championship between Alabama's Auburn University and the University of Georgia, argues "Roy Moore's attacks on me just aren't true." Jones highlights his Alabama upbringing, how a Republican-run Senate confirmed him to be U.S. attorney, and how he has a tough record as a prosecutor. Jones then touts his bona fides on the second amendment and maintaining a strong military, all while smartly avoiding just repeating Moore's attacks verbatim.
Although Democrats and Jones have vastly outspent Republicans and Moore in this race, the latter finally garnered some third-party support. A PAC called Great America Alliance, which has ties to Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, will launch what it calls a "six figures" commitment to ads and voter turnout efforts on Moore's behalf. However, their first expenditure is for only $140,000, which won't exactly have Democrats shaking in their boots.
Senate
● FL-Sen: St. Leo University takes another look at next year's Senate race, and they give GOP Gov. Rick Scott a wide 42-32 lead over Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, a big shift from the 35-33 Scott edge they found in late September. However, St. Leo's poll leaves out one very important thing.
Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for Florida United States Senator was held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson and Rick Scott, which would you support?" but the candidates weren't identified by their party. While most voters probably know that Scott is a Republican and Nelson is a Democrat, the way the question is asked could prime respondents not to think about this as a partisan race, or impact how low-information voters react. St. Leo's last poll had similar language.
And as we've noted before, St. Leo's track record is… not good. Their final 2016 poll, which was concluded in late October, gave Hillary Clinton a 50-37 lead in the state; Donald Trump won Florida 49-47 two weeks later. (That poll also did not identify the candidates' party.) Scott has not yet announced he's running, but there's little chance he sits this contest out.
● MN-Sen: Multiple women have recently come forward to accuse Democratic Sen. Al Franken of groping them, and the Senate Ethics Committee has now confirmed that they have opened a preliminary investigation into the allegations against the senator. Franken has thus far denied remembering any of the alleged events, yet he has nevertheless apologized for them, which appears to be trying to have it both ways.
There so far hasn't been a drumbeat calling for his resignation among top congressional Democrats, and the only one to do so yet is New York Rep. Joe Crowley, who is the fourth-ranking House Democrat. However, more of his senior colleagues may soon end up joining him, particularly after House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and others have recently called upon Michigan Rep. John Conyers and Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen to step down.
● ND-Sen: On Friday, state Treasurer Kelly Schmidt told the Forum News Service's John Hageman that she had decided not to seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. The hardline anti-tax group the Club for Growth had tried to recruit Schmidt and released a poll back in September giving her a 48-44 lead over Heitkamp. Schmidt said Friday she had considered getting in, but decided not to run months ago.
Right now, wealthy state Sen. Tom Campbell has the primary to himself, but that may change. Rep. Kevin Cramer has been hovering over the contest for the last year, but he's in no hurry to decide. State Rep. Rick Becker also reiterated this month that he's still considering as well. Ex-Rep. Rick Berg, who narrowly lost to Heitkamp in 2012, didn't rule out a bid in October, and he told Hageman this month that, "My situation is the same."
● UT-Sen: GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch has kept us all guessing for a year about whether of not he'll seek an eighth term or if he'll retire and allow ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to succeed him. Romney is reportedly quite frustrated with Hatch's indecision (join the club, buddy), especially since Politico's Alex Isenstadt reports that Donald Trump is encouraging Hatch to stay in the Senate. Trump himself seemed to confirm the story on Monday when he publicly called for Hatch to run again. Hatch himself reportedly reaffirmed to Trump that he's still deciding what to do.
Romney has been a Trump critic (except for that time he auditioned to be Trump's secretary of state) while Hatch has been a loyal ally, so it's no surprise that the White House likes the status quo just fine. Hatch said in September that he'd decide by the end of the year, but we wouldn't be shocked if he just blows past that timeline. Romney has not shown any interest in challenging Hatch if it comes down to it.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: On Monday, former federal prosecutor Chris Mattei announced that he would run for attorney general rather than for governor. Mattei had formed an exploratory committee for a possible Democratic bid for governor months ago, but he sounded very interested in switching races after Democratic Attorney General George Jepsen surprised political observers last week by announcing that he would retire rather than seek a third term.
● ME-Gov: On Monday, Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree confirmed that she is indeed considering running for governor. We should be getting a decision soon: Pingree's spokesperson said she "will make a decision by the end of the month," though the congresswoman said she'd make up her mind by early January. There's no clear frontrunner in the crowded Democratic primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Paul LePage: Pingree has represented the southern half of Maine, which is by far the more Democratic portion of the state, since 2009, so if she runs she could have a big edge. It's also possible that some of the other gubernatorial candidates would decide to run for her seat, which backed Clinton 54-39.
House
● HI-01: The Associated Press reports that Honolulu City Councilor Ernie Martin has plans to run in the Democratic primary for this open seat, though there's no quote from Martin. State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim and state Rep. Kaniela Ing are already running in this Honolulu seat, and a number of other Democrats are eyeing this 63-31 Clinton district.
● MI-09: Longtime Democratic Rep. Sandy Levin announced on Saturday that he would retire from this suburban Detroit seat. Levin narrowly lost the general election for governor in 1970 and 1974 to Republican incumbent William Milliken before he was elected to the House in 1982. Levin arrived in the House four years after his brother, Carl Levin, was first elected to the Senate. The two Levins served together until Carl Levin retired in early 2015. The only times Rep. Levin won re-election by single digits was 1992 and 1994 against Republican John Pappageorge. Levin hung on to win 52-47 in the 1994 GOP wave and won their third bout 57-41 in 1996, and he was never seriously threatened again. In 2010, termed-out state Sen. Mickey Switalski decided to challenge Levin in the primary from the right, but Levin won 76-24.
It didn't take long for speculation to begin about which Democrats would run to succeed Levin. Attorney and businessman Andy Levin, a former state government official, said last month that he might run here when his father decided to retire. The younger Levin hasn't said anything since this seat opened up, but Rep. Levin said this weekend that he thought his son "would be terrific" in Congress. Several media reports have also mentioned state Sen. Steve Bieda as a potential candidate, though Bieda hasn't said anything publicly yet.
Kevin Howley, who lost the 2012 race for Oakland County executive to GOP incumbent Brooks Patterson 57-43, is the only Democrat who has said he's interested so far. Roll Call's Simone Pathé also name-drops state Rep. Robert Wittenberg, Royal Oak Mayor Michael Fournier, and Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner as possible candidates.
This seat, which includes Detroit's northern suburbs, shifted to the right from 57-42 Obama to 51-44 Clinton. Republican Gov. Rick Snyder managed to carry it 51-47 during his 2014 re-election campaign, but it's tough to see this seat being in much danger outside of another GOP wave year. So far, the only Republican who has entered the race is businesswoman Candius Stearns, who announced she was running against Levin months ago to little fanfare.
● MN-08: Democrat Sue Hakes, who served as a commissioner in Cook County (population 5,300), formed an exploratory committee back in May for a potential bid for this seat. Hakes did not report raising any money in the ensuring months, so it's not a surprise that she's not running against Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan. However, Hakes will serve as campaign manager for ex-FBI analyst Leah Phifer, a Democrat who very much is running against Nolan. Phifer has said she would drop out of the race if she doesn't win the support of delegates at a district-level convention next year. This seat, which includes Minnesota's Iron Range, swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump.
● NC-02: On Monday, wealthy distillery owner Sam Searcy announced that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary and would run for the state Senate instead. Searcy had $506,000 in the bank at the end of September for his bid against GOP Rep. George Holding, most of it self-funded. Tech executive Ken Romley, who has also been doing some self-funding, and ex-state Rep. Linda Coleman, who lost competitive campaigns for lieutenant governor in 2012 and 2016, are still challenging Holding in this 53-44 Trump Raleigh-area seat. As for Searcy, he's taking on GOP incumbent Tamara Barringer in a competitive state Senate seat.
● NJ-05: State Sens. Steven Oroho and Michael Doherty, who had been mentioned as possible GOP candidates against freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer, have instead endorsed ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. So far, Lonegan and attorney John McCann, the general counsel to the New Jersey Sheriff's Association, have the primary to themselves in this competitive North Jersey seat. We wondered if more candidates show interest now that New Jersey has held its November elections, but things have been pretty quiet so far.
● NV-04: On Friday night, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Ben Ray Luján called for Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen to resign after BuzzFeed published a story reporting that Kihuen's former campaign finance director said he sexually harassed her. Kihuen put out statements apologizing "for anything that I may have said or done that made her feel uncomfortable," but he has not publically addressed if he will try and keep the suburban Las Vegas seat he narrowly won last year. The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston relays that Kihuen "is in denial and denying everything," though he predicts that he'll eventually resign. He certainly wouldn't be the first scandal-tarred member of Congress to quit under pressure from his party's leadership.
Kihuen's seat, which is dominated by Las Vegas' northern suburbs, went from 54-44 Obama to 50-45 Clinton, and the GOP is going to be a whole lot more interested in targeting it than they were a week ago no matter what Kihuen decides to do. If Kihuen resigns, the party central committees will pick their nominees for the special election rather than use party primaries. Ralston writes that the seat's last two congressmen, Democrat Steven Horsford and Republican Cresent Hardy, are each considering a comeback campaign.
Horsford won this new seat in 2012, but horrible Democratic turnout helped Hardy unseat him 49-46 in 2014. Horsford considered seeking a rematch but passed a few months later, and Kihuen went on to beat Hardy 49-45. Las Vegas City Councilor Stavros Anthony has been running for Team Red for a few months, but he could get shoved out of the race by Hardy if the former congressman wants to try for a comeback. However, Ralston cautions that it will be tough to predict whom the party central committees on either side might nominate.
If Horsford decides not to run again, Ralston writes that the "natural choice" for Democrats is state Sen. Yvanna Cancela, the first Latina to serve in the state Senate. Cancela was only appointed to succeed Kihuen last year, but she used to be political director of the Culinary Workers Union, a major force in Nevada Democratic politics. Cancela does have a full time job and is in law school, which could deter her from running. A number of other Democrats may also be interested in running in a special or challenging Kihuen if he seeks re-election.
● TX-27: On Friday, Politico reported that GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold had used $84,000 in taxpayer money in 2015 to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against him by his former communications director. Last year, when the details about the lawsuit were publicly known but before voters knew how it was settled, Farenthold beat a little-known primary foe just 56-44, and he could be in more trouble now. Former Victoria County Republican Party chair Michael Cloud was already challenging Farenthold, and on Friday night, Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun said he would announce if he would also get in in the next week.
The filing deadline is Dec. 11, so other potential challengers need to decide what to do soon. Texas requires a primary runoff if no one takes a majority, so if Farenthold does pick up a few new opponents, he can't just sail to renomination with a plurality. This Corpus Christie seat backed Trump 60-37, so Farenthold's biggest worry is in the primary.
Farenthold himself is hoping to make the scandal disappear. On Monday, he said he would use his personal funds to pay back the $84,000, probably not a huge sacrifice for a congressman with an estimated net worth of $5.8 million. So far, Farenthold's fellow House Republicans, including Speaker Paul Ryan, aren't calling for the four-term incumbent to resign or retire, and Farenthold also hasn't shown any interest in leaving.
● TX-29: On Friday, healthcare company CEO Tahir Javed announced he would seek the Democratic nod to succeed retiring Rep. Gene Green in this safely blue Houston seat. Javed hosted a 2016 fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, so he may have some useful political and business connections. However, Green has endorsed state Sen. Sylvia Garcia, a longtime Houston politician.
● North Carolina: Tar Heel State Republicans have passed a slew of election-law changes in recent years designed to give them an institutional leg up in judicial races, most recently passing a law over Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's veto to eliminate judicial primaries entirely in 2018. However, one underappreciated component of that new law will also affect primaries for congressional and state offices after GOP legislators lowered the threshold needed to avoid a primary runoff from 40 percent to just 30 percent. This change will make it even likelier that certain candidates and incumbents can win a primary simply due to a divided opposition.
Legislative
● Specials Elections: Johnny Longtorso gives us a look at Tuesday's contests:
Massachusetts Senate, Worcester & Middlesex: This is an open Democratic seat north of Worcester. The Democratic nominee is Sue Chalifoux Zephir, a member of the Leominster City Council. The Republican nominee is Dean Tran, a member of the Fitchburg City Council. Also on the ballot is independent Claire Freda, a member of the Leominster City Council, and Green Party nominee Charlene DiCalogero, an education administrator. This seat went 50-42 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 52-46 for Barack Obama in 2012.
Pennsylvania HD-133: This is an open Democratic seat in the Lehigh Valley. The Democrats have nominated Jeanne McNeill, the widow of the district's previous representative. The Republicans have nominated David Molony, a perennial candidate. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Samantha Dorney. This seat went 53-43 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 59-39 for Barack Obama in 2012.
Mayoral
● Atlanta, GA Mayor: The nonpartisan runoff to succeed termed-out Mayor Kasim Reed is on Tuesday, and we have our second (and probably final) poll. The GOP firm Landmark Communications, polling on behalf of several local news outlets, gives independent Mary Norwood a 51-45 lead over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a fellow member of the City Council. Last week, Opinion Savvy gave Bottoms a 42-39 edge. Bottoms led Norwood 26-21 in the November primary, but Norwood has won the endorsement of most of the defeated candidates.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: John Anderson, an Illinois Republican who served for 20 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, and then ran one of the highest-profile third-party presidential bids of the 20th century, died on Monday at age 95. Anderson initially ran for president in 1980 as part of the Republican primary, but after he found that his Rockefeller Republicanism was no longer fashionable within the GOP and that he polled better in the general than in the primary, switched to an independent bid. #Neverreagan turned out to be no more of a success than #Nevertrump, though, and few establishment Republicans broke lockstep and followed him over. Anderson’s core supporters instead were often college-educated liberal Democrats who were lukewarm about Jimmy Carter.
Anderson finished in third place in the 1980 election, winning just under 7 percent of the popular vote after having polled in the double digits for most of the campaign, but not winning any electoral votes (and allegedly not even winning a single precinct). Anderson sometimes is assigned a share of the blame in Ronald Reagan's election, but, much like Ross Perot in 1992, appeared to draw almost equally from dissatisfied members of both parties … and, at any rate, Reagan narrowly cleared 50 percent on his own. Perhaps reflecting on his bid's failure, one of Anderson's late-career projects was co-founding FairVote, an organization that supports electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting.
Anderson's career in the House, where he represented Illinois's 16th district in the Rockford area from 1961 to 1981, was also noteworthy for the arc it took (again, an early prototype for a lot of what we see in GOP internal strife today). He started as a fairly orthodox conservative and was in Republican leadership for many years, but gradually soured on the party over Vietnam and the Nixon administration. During his final re-election campaign in 1978, Anderson had to fend off a prominent primary challenge from a fundamentalist minister. Anderson won renomination 58-42, by which point he was one of the most centrist members of the GOP caucus.
● Where Are They Now?: Ex-Rep. Corrine Brown, a Florida Democrat, was convicted of fraud and tax evasion back in May, and on Monday, she was sentenced to five years in prison. Brown, who lost the primary last year to now-Rep. Al Lawson, was found guilty of taking hundreds of thousands from a sham charity called One Door For Education for her personal use. Brown's former chief of staff Ronnie Simmons and Carla Wiley, the president of One Door, were also found guilty and sentenced to prison. Brown's attorneys have vowed to appeal, but the judge ordered her to report to prison by Jan. 8.
