On Thursday, former Gov. Phil Bredesen announced he would run for Tennessee's open Senate seat, giving D.C. Democrats a star recruit with a famous name and a history winning statewide. Indeed, Bredesen is the last Democrat to win statewide in Tennessee, period, when he carried all 95 of the state's counties in his 2006 re-election bid.
But that was also the last time that Bredesen, now 74, appeared on a ballot, and Tennessee, which even then was quite red, has shifted even further to the right since then. In fact, Republican presidential candidates have done better in each successive election dating back to 1996, culminating in Donald Trump's giant 61-35 victory last year. Even if 2018 continues to shape up as a good year for Democrats, that's a lot of cushion for the GOP.
And it's reasonable to wonder whether someone who's been out of the game as long as Bredesen has will be able to run an effective campaign. Last cycle, we saw three Democrats who'd been elected statewide fail in comeback bids for the Senate: Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Ted Strickland in Ohio, and Evan Bayh in Indiana. All were hailed as top recruits when they entered their respective races, and many pundits saw Bayh as a "game-changer" who was uniquely capable of putting the race in play for Democrats, if not the outright favorite. We were cautious about Bayh, though, and we're taking the same approach with Bredesen.
That same caution means we also have to take note of former statewide elected officials who faced long layoffs but then did successfully return to the fray. In 2012, for instance, former Maine Gov. Angus King won a seat in the Senate despite having last run for office in 1998. And in North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp pulled off a much more remarkable Senate victory, 12 years after losing a bid for governor and 16 years after winning a second term as state attorney general, so we know return engagements like this can in fact work out.
But first, Bredesen will have to deal with a primary, much as Strickland did. Army veteran James Mackler has been running here for much of the year, long before GOP Sen. Bob Corker's retirement turned this into an open-seat race, and he immediately made it clear that he's not leaving on account of Bredesen's entry: Mackler said the best way for Democrats to win this contest is to present "a clear contrast between an Iraq war combat veteran that volunteers to serve his country against a career politician who only serves special interests." (That's a reference to the eventual GOP nominee, not a jab at Bredesen.) However, one other potential rival did clear out of the way: While Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke had also considered running, he endorsed Bredesen instead.
The former governor starts off with near-universal name recognition and will have vastly more money, so he's the heavy favorite to win the nomination, but a primary should be a good thing: If he wins, it'll hopefully help him shake off any rust, and if he loses, well, then this definitely wasn't meant to be. (Then again, we said the same thing about Strickland.) As for the GOP, they have a primary of their own, with the central players being Rep. Marsha Blackburn (a Club for Growth favorite), ex-Rep. Stephen Fincher (more of an establishment type), and wealthy ophthalmologist Rolando Toyos, who could prove to be a self-funding wildcard.
But whoever earns the Republican nomination will still have the upper hand even if they wind up facing Bredesen. It's certainly possible he could put this seat in play, but we're going to reserve our judgment for now.