Democrats can absolutely win the House in 2018

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Friday February 03, 2017 · 10:42 AM PST

2017/02/03 · 10:42

The eight Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives who may be most vulnerable in 2018 — The Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives who may well be the most vulnerable in 2018. Top row: Don Bacon (NE-02), Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Jeff Denham (CA-10), Will Hurd (TX-23). Bottom row: Darryl Issa (CA-49), Jason Lewis (MN-02), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), David Valadao (CA-21).

Over the last several weeks, I’ve been telling people that Democrats can absolutely retake the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 in spite of the extreme gerrymandering the Republicans did following the 2010 census.

Republicans have won more seats than their total votes would normally grant because they’ve drawn maps to pack Democrats into a few overwhelmingly Democratic districts while spreading Republican voters more thinly across more districts. That makes it easier for Republicans to win a majority of the seats, but also means that many of those seats are vulnerable to even a small Democratic wave.

And now just a month into the new Congressional session, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has released their targets for 2018.

The DCCC notes what I’ve been saying for weeks:

Democrats need to flip 24 seats to retake control of the House in 2018.
There are 23 Republicans representing districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Three of them won their own re-elections by very narrow margins.
There are another 10 Republicans representing districts that Donald Trump barely won (by 4% or less) that may become increasingly disgruntled with the GOP if Trump’s popularity continues to plummet. Two of these have incumbents who barely won their own races.

The DCCC also notes that the President’s party hasn’t gained House seats in any first term midterm election since 1900 except three: in 1902, when Theodore Roosevelt’s popularity was riding high for his trust-busting, environmentalism, and consumer protection advocacy; in 1934 when Franklin Roosevelt was advancing the New Deal to rescue Americans from the Great Depression; and in 2002 when Americans were rallying around the flag and President Bush following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The DCCC also notes that in the last quarter century, the President has needed double-digit net-positive approval ratings to avoid losing midterm seats. President Trump hasn’t been in office for two weeks and he already has a net negative approval rating.

To the DCCC’s list I would also have added the four Republicans who won their re-election by under 2%, and a fifth who won by under 4%, but they were already captured by the DCCC’s criteria. The DCCC also intends to add seats where an incumbent is leaving, since any open seat is potentially vulnerable even in a strongly partisan district. (There’s always a chance that a GOP newcomer will suddenly have a ton of skeletons pouring out of their closet during the rigors of the campaign.) Right now that includes Kansas’ 4th district following Mike Pompeo’s confirmation as Director of the CIA, and may include Georgia’s 6th district if Tom Price is confirmed for Secretary of Health and Human Services. As the campaign season progresses, the DCCC plans to add additional targets if other Republicans resign or announce their retirement in order to take a job the Trump Administration, run for other office, take a private sector job, or retire, leaving either an empty seat or someone who’s only won in a special mid-cycle election.

There are also districts where Clinton lost but still outperformed President Obama in 2012 that should be eyed. These should be eyed carefully, however: while some may be trending Democratic, others may have been more in reaction against Trump specifically rather than for Democrats in general. All four of Utah’s Congressional Districts top this 2012 to 2016 swing list, for example. These heavily-Mormon districts went disproportionally high in 2012 for Mitt Romney, the first Mormon candidate to run on a major party’s ticket, and disproportionally low in 2016 because of their widespread distaste for Trump and because Evan McMullin, a fellow Mormon from Utah, siphoned off over 21% of the vote in the state. Despite Clinton outperforming Obama by 25 to 35 points in each of these districts, most — with the possible exception of Mia Love (UT-04) — aren’t currently considered to be vulnerable.

The DCCC’s list includes 59 targeted seats to which I’ve added KS-04 now that Mike Pompeo has resigned. The DCCC’s list doesn’t explain their criteria for individual targets, but I’ve added the incumbent’s 2016 electoral margin, as well as the presidential candidate’s margin in 2016 and 2012 along with the degree to which the district swung for or against the Democratic presidential candidate.

I’ve also taken the liberty of breaking these races into tiers based on which seats I think may be easiest to flip. This is solely based on my own criteria and should not be interpreted in any way as representing where the DCCC or others intend to focus resources. These start with the seats where either the incumbent only won by a very narrow margin, and/or where Hillary Clinton won by a substantial margin. In some cases, the DCCC included seats where both the incumbent and Trump won by healthy margins. I’ve included these ones in the lowest tier — perhaps the DCCC has other undisclosed reasons for thinking these seats may be particularly vulnerable or might become vacant.

Although the GOP has gerrymandered districts to maximize their seats, they still only have the same finite number of Republican voters to work with. Some districts have just enough Republicans to outpoll Democratic-leaning voters. But if those Democratic-leaning voters are extra motivated by the midterms (and may well be if the Women’s March and other rallies are any indication), and if GOP-leaning voters are depressed enough from Trump’s scandals or betrayals to either stay home or vote against the GOP incumbent, there may be enough of a wave to gain 25 to 35 seats, perhaps even more if it’s a big wave.

Here are the seats I think can be targeted. Note that Tiers 1 through 4 include 25 seats, just over the minimum number to retake the House. Tier 5 provides 35 extra opportunities that could offset any losses in the other tiers.

Tier 1: Incumbent Barely Re-Elected and/or Clinton Carried District by 10% or More
District	Incumbent	2016 Margin	2016 President	2012 President	2012-16 Swing
CA-10	Jeff Denham	3.4%	HRC +3	BO +3.6	-0.6
CA-21	David Valadao	13.5%	HRC +15.5	BO +11.1	+4.4
CA-49	Darryl Issa	0.5%	HRC +7.5	MR +6.7	+14.2
FL-26	Carlos Curbelo	11.8%	HRC +16.1	BO +11.5	+4.6
FL-27	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	9.8%	HRC +19.7	BO +6.7	+13.0
MN-02	Jason Lewis	1.8%	DJT +1.2	BO +0.1	-1.3
NE-02	Don Bacon	1.2%	DJT +2.2	MR +7.2	+5.0
TX-23	Will Hurd	1.3%	HRC +3.4	MR +2.6	+6.0

Eight seats. The statistical issues that make these incumbents vulnerable are bolded.

Tier 2: Carried by Clinton by 5% to 10%
District	Incumbent	2016 Margin	2016 President	2012 President	2012-16 Swing
CA-25	Steve Knight	6.3%	HRC +6.7	MR +1.9	+8.6
CA-39	Ed Royce	14.5%	HRC +8.6	MR +3.7	+12.3
CA-45	Mimi Walters	17.1%	HRC +5.4	MR +11.8	+17.2
CO-06	Mike Coffman	8.3%	HRC +8.9	BO +5.1	+3.8
IL-06	Peter Roskam	18.4%	HRC +7.0	MR +8.2	+15.2
MN-03	Erik Paulsen	13.7%	HRC +9.4	BO +0.8	+8.6
VA-10	Barbara Comstock	5.8%	HRC +10.0	MR +1.6	+11.6

Seven more seats, bringing the total to 15. Vulnerabilities are bolded.

Tier 3: Carried by Clinton by 2% to 5%
District	Incumbent	2016 Margin	2016 President	2012 President	2012-16 Swing
AZ-02	Martha McSally	13.9%	HRC +4.9	MR +1.5	+6.4
NY-24	John Katko	21.1%	HRC +3.6	BO +15.9	-12.3
PA-07	Pat Meehan	18.9%	HRC +2.3	MR +1.9	+4.2
WA-08	David Reichert	20.4%	HRC +3.0	BO +1.6	+1.4

Four more seats, bringing the total to 19. Vulnerabilities are bolded.

Tier 4: Narrowly Carried by Clinton by Under 2%
District	Incumbent	2016 Margin	2016 President	2012 President	2012-16 Swing
CA-48	Dana Rohrabacher	16.6%	HRC +1.7	MR +11.7	+13.4
KS-03	Kevin Yoder	10.7%	HRC +1.2	MR +9.5	+10.7
NJ-07	Leonard Lance	11.0%	HRC +1.1	MR +6.2	+7.3
PA-06	Ryan Costello	14.5%	HRC +0.6	MR +2.5	+3.1
TX-07	John Culberson	12.3%	HRC +1.4	MR +21.3	+22.7
TX-32	Pete Sessions	52.1%	HRC +1.9	MR +15.5	+17.4

Six more seats, bringing the total to 25 — enough to flip the House. Vulnerabilities are bolded.

Tier 5: Trump Barely Carried, Incumbent Leaving, or Undisclosed DCCC Criteria
District	Incumbent	2016 Margin	2016 President	2012 President	2012-16 Swing
AL-02	Martha Roby	8.2%	DJT +31.9	MR +26.6	-5.4
AR-02	French Hill	21.5%	DJT +10.7	MR +11.8	+1.1
CO-03	Scott Tipton	14.3%	DJT +12.0	MR +6.0	-6.0
FL-18	Brian Mast	10.5%	DJT +9.2	MR +3.7	-5.5
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	24.7%	DJT +1.7	MR +9.6	+7.9
GA-06	*Tom Price*	23.4%	DJT +1.5	MR +23.3	+21.8
IA-01	Rod Blum	7.7%	DJT +3.5	BO +13.7	-17.2
IA-03	David Young	13.7%	DJT +3.5	BO +4.2	-7.7
IL-13	Rodney Davis	19.3%	DJT +5.5	MR +0.3	-5.2
IL-14	Randy Hultgren	18.6%	DJT +3.9	MR +10.0	+6.1
KS-02	Lynn Jenkins	28.4%	DJT +18.4	MR +13.6	-4.8
KS-04	*Mike Pompeo*	31.1%	DJT +27.2	MR +25.5	-1.7
KY-06	Andy Barr	22.2%	DJT +15.3	MR +13.6	-1.7
ME-02	Bruce Poliquin	9.6%	DJT +10.3	BO +8.5	-18.8
MI-07	Tim Walberg	15.0%	DJT +17.0	MR +3.1	-13.9
MI-08	Mike Bishop	16.9%	DJT +6.7	MR +3.1	-3.6
MI-11	Dave Trott	12.8%	DJT +4.4	MR +5.4	+1.0
NC-08	Richard Hudson	17.5%	DJT +15.0	MR +10.4	-4.6
NC-09	Robert Pittenger	16.4%	DJT +11.6	MR +11.6	0.0
NC-13	Ted Budd	12.2%	DJT +9.4	MR +6.8	-2.6
NJ-02	Frank LoBiondo	22.0%	DJT +4.6	BO +8.1	-12.7
NJ-03	Tom MacArthur	20.4%	DJT +6.2	BO +4.6	-10.8
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	19.1%	DJT +0.9	MR +5.8	+4.9
NY-01	Lee Zeldin	17.9%	DJT +12.3	BO +0.5	-12.8
NY-11	Dan Donovan	24.9%	DJT +9.8	BO +4.3	-14.1
NY-19	John Faso	8.6%	DJT +7.3	BO +6.2	-13.5
NY-22	Claudia Tenney	5.5%	DJT +15.5	MR +0.4	-15.1
NY-27	Chris Collins	34.4%	DJT +24.5	MR +12.6	-12.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	18.4%	DJT +6.6	MR +6.1	-0.5
OH-07	Bob Gibbs	35.1%	DJT +29.7	MR +9.5	-20.2
PA-08	Brian Fitzpatrick	8.9%	DJT +0.2	MR +0.1	-0.1
PA-16	Lloyd Smucker	10.9%	DJT +6.8	MR +6.1	-0.7
VA-02	Scott Taylor	22.9%	DJT +3.4	MR +2.4	-1.0
WA-03	Jaime Herrera Beutler	23.5%	DJT +7.4	MR +1.7	-5.7
WV-02	Alex Mooney	16.4%	DJT +36.4	MR +22	-14.4

Thirty-five more targets, bringing the total to 60. Vulnerabilities are bolded.

For some, I can’t really tell why the DCCC included them. Perhaps they know of impending court-ordered redistricting, a scandal they hope to help break during the election, or a likely retirement?

Of course, the GOP will have their own targets, including a dozen Democratic Representatives in districts carried by Trump (four of whom won their own races by under 2%). But history favors the White House’s opposition party in mid-term elections unless the President’s popularity is in double digits, and favors them even more when the President’s popularity is underwater. Winning 24 seats or more is absolutely achievable.

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Democrats can absolutely win the House in 2018

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