As a historian, I rely on federal data to help tell accurate stories about our collective past. So I am proud to work with Data Rescue Austin (#DataRescueATX), which is one of many local citizen archivist groups organized in the wake of last year’s election. #DataRescueATX works with national organizations like DataRefuge and the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative (EDGI) to identify, back up, and help preserve freely accessible federal data resources in the event that they are removed from public view and use. These organizations are particularly concerned with preserving federal data that supports climate and environmental research and advocacy. But the federal government also collects and distributes extensive social and economic data, which is also at serious risk of politicization and suppression. It is important to advocate for, protect, and preserve this data as well.
Accessible, reliable information is the lifeblood of democracy. So it is no historical accident that the United States federal government is the largest--and possibly the most effective--compiler, repository and disseminator of social and economic data in the history of the world. Aside from the federal government's crucial role in support of the hard sciences, arts, and humanities, the social and economic data it collects, preserves and distributes is absolutely foundational to what we know about ourselves, and to our ability to plan for the future. That vast trove of data is a vital part of the American civic tradition, helping to sustain and stabilize our legal and political orders.
Although civil authorities in America have been collecting basic census data since the colonial era, the large-scale, systematic use of federally collected social and economic data in policy-making dates back the mid-to-late 19th century. As both American society and the American economy grew larger and more complex during the “Age of Progress”, statistics became an increasingly useful way of understanding patterns of continuity and change, identifying and responding to economic and social problems, and developing a basis for rational planning. By the 1860s, the federal government was collecting data on manufactures, fisheries, agriculture, and social metrics like church membership, taxation rates, poverty and crime.
Among the most important milestones of federal statistical record keeping was the establishment of the Federal Bureau of Labor in 1884. Initially modeled after state labor agencies, the Bureau of Labor was tasked with compiling and disseminating statistics on American employment and productivity. The new bureau produced cutting edge work on both social and economic issues, and developed innovative statistical methods to better quantify and analyze the country’s rapidly changing economic and social landscape.
Today, that agency is known as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it's part of the larger Department of Labor. The BLS has a proud history of measuring inflation, employment, pay rates, productivity, and consumer spending. It has served as the model for many of the data-gathering agencies that came after it: strictly non-partisan, highly rigorous, and well respected across the political spectrum. Collectively, these agencies accounted for only .18% of the federal budget in 2016, which is also a small fraction of the financial value—both to the private sector and the American public—of the data they produce. (For those interested in a deeper look at the role and importance of federal statistics, check out this joint report by the Hamilton Project-AEI).
For over a century, data gathering on American society and its economy has been a settled function of federal government. For over a century, that data has been used to guide decision-making in private industry, craft and hone public policy, and keep public officials accountable. No major national political figure since the Civil War has explicitly challenged the credibility—let alone the utility—of the social and economic data collected by federal agencies.
Until now. During his successful run for the presidency last year, Donald Trump:
- loudly and repeatedly dismissed the accuracy of the jobs numbers collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed a strengthening job market under Obama.
- Suggested that the actual unemployment rate might be as high as 42%.
- Claimed that crime was rising toward “record levels” which is disproven by the work of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), whose statistics have shown overall crime to be near historic lows.
Tweeted that 81% of all white homicide victims are killed by African Americans, for which he cited something called the “Crime Statistics Bureau--San Francisco,” which doesn’t exist. The FBI does exist however, and its statistics show that 15% of whites were murdered by blacks in 2014—an error factor of 5.4.
Claimed that America’s GDP had dipped “below zero” for the first time ever. (He meant GDP growth, and it happens all the time.)
All of these statements are--and have been--easily disproven by federal data. And they comprise only a fraction of the untruths he has uttered—both during the campaign and as president—that run completely counter to what we know because of federal data. Yet rather than concede the proof of his errors, Donald Trump and his officials have doubled down on his demonstrably false claims, while at the same time impugning the press as “fake news,” and the federal agencies whose data contravenes his statements as part of an undemocratic “deep state.”
Rather than rising to the defense of federal data collection, the Republican Party, which controls both houses of Congress, has essentially adopted Trump’s war on federal information as their own. Current Republican bills in both the Senate and the House would, for instance, prohibit federal funds from being used "to design, build, maintain, utilize, or provide access to a Federal database of geospatial information on community racial disparities or disparities in access to affordable housing." Another Republican house bill threatens to make large sections of the American Community Survey—an important yearly survey sent to 3.5 million Americans per year since 1940—“voluntary” rather than legally mandated. This data has proven immensely valuable over the years, and its loss can only negatively effect future policy outcomes.
There's a grim logic to all of this. Aside from their historical value, the statistics gathered by executive agencies like the BLS are an important tool for grading our public servants. These numbers cut past the rhetoric and political spin to reveal the real-world consequences of actual public policies. As with all presidents before him, they will be among the truest measures of President Donald Trump--particularly as he compares to his immediate predecessor.
Trump and the Republicans are now in position to warp the federal government’s information regime to their will; basically, to grade themselves. As it happens, most of the agencies that gather social and economic data are part of the executive branch. The Trump administration has already moved strongly to subordinate and stifle the agencies under his direct control. Until this year, for example, Mick Mulvaney was a congressman from South Carolina. In 2011, Mulvaney was at the center of a movement of hardline conservatives to trigger a default on the federal debt, risking a possible global economic catastrophe. In 2013, he nearly single handedly blocked an emergency relief bill for victims of Hurricane Sandy by insisting that every dollar spent be offset by equal cuts somewhere else in the federal budget. He is now Donald Trump’s head the Office of Management and Budget.
The head of OMB was already a powerful position. But last Monday, Trump signed an executive order authorizing and instructing Mulvaney’s OMB to develop plans to “reorganize...or eliminate unnecessary federal agencies.” It might actually be beneficial to reorganize the decentralized statistical agencies under the OMB without losing their functionality. But given his history, Mulvaney is far more likely to kill the agencies whose products might be used to hold Trump and the Republicans accountable for their policies.
The Mulvaney appointment is of a piece with other personnel moves that undermine the core functions of crucial federal agencies within the executive branch. Trump has placed a man who rejects climate science in charge of the EPA. He has placed a man who believes that Hillary Clinton received millions of fraudulent votes in the last election in charge of the Department of Justice, and a woman who has worked openly to dismantle public schools in charge of its Department of Education.
These actions go beyond ideology. They are purposely destructive, unaccountable, and antidemocratic. And if there were any lingering doubts about the motives behind them, Trump’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon, laid them to rest at CPAC last month, when he swaggeringly vowed that the Trump administration would fight “every day” toward the “deconstruction of the administrative state.” By definition, an “administrative state” is a state that counts things. By destroying the federal government’s ability to produce and disseminate credible social and economic data, the Trump administration looks to strike a blow against the heart of our democratic system. In the information vacuum Trump and the Republicans are trying to create, the truth will be whatever they say it is.
All of which makes federal data preservation a fundamental act of resistance. Datarescue Austin is part of a nationwide effort to scrape as much data from federal servers as possible so that it can be safely backed up and preserved on private servers. We know that scientific data—particularly data which demonstrates the reality of climate change—is under threat under the current administration. But we also need to protect the social and economic data that tells us about our history, and helps us plan for our future. That data belongs to us. And right now, it is also vulnerable.
But it’s not enough just to save what’s already there. The federal government needs to continue collecting and disseminating data in order to maintain its consistency and comprehensiveness, and to judge the impacts of this administration in real terms. A lot depends on what Mulvaney does to the federal statistical system, and we need to be ready to raise the alarm if he tries to dismantle it under the phony guise of cost-saving. Below is a list of major at-risk agencies that collect social and economic data. Each is part of the Federal Statistical System of the United States--the decentralized network of federal agencies that produce data about the people, economy, natural resources, and infrastructure in the United States.
Bureau of the Census (USCB) under US Department of Commerce: Conducts Decennial Census. http://census.gov/
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under US Department of Labor: Principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics. http://www.bls.gov/
National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) under the US Department of Education: Collects, analyzes, and publishes statistics on education and public school district finance information in the United States. http://nces.ed.gov/
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) under US Department of Agriculture: NASS conducts hundreds of surveys and issues nearly 500 national reports each year on issues including agricultural production, economics, demographics and the environment. NASS also conducts the United States Census of Agriculture every five years. http://www.nass.usda.gov/
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS): Provides statistical information to guide actions and policies to improve the health of the American people. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm/
Energy Information Administration (EIA) under US Department of Energy: responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. http://www.eia.gov/
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) under US Department of Commerce: provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics including the gross domestic product of the United States. http://www.bea.gov/
Economic Research Service (ERS) under US Department of Agriculture: Provides information and research on agriculture and economics. https://www.ers.usda.gov
Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) under US Department of Justice: Collects, analyzes and publishes data relating to crime in the United States. http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Statistics of Income Division (SOI) under IRS/Department of the Treasury: Collects and processes data so that they become informative and shares information about how the tax system works with other government agencies and the general public. https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stats-statistics-of-income
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) under US Department of Transportation: Compiles, analyzes, and makes accessible information on the nation's transportation systems; collects information on intermodal transportation and other areas as needed; and improves the quality and effectiveness of DOT's statistical programs through research, development of guidelines, and promotion of improvements in data acquisition and use. https://www.bts.gov
Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES), part of Social Security Administration: Provides statistical data on OASDI and SSI program benefits, payments, covered workers, and other indicators; Sponsors special-purpose survey data collections and studies to improve data for research and statistics related to social security issues; develops links between administrative record data and survey data for use in Social Security research and policy analysis. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/about/ORES.html
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