Democrats have a chance to gain a House seat in a Kansas special election.
The resistance to Trump has already performed well in special elections. They won a State Senate race in Delaware by 17 points, even though it was expected to be close and narrowly lost legislative races in Minnesota and Connecticut even though those races were in heavily Republican territory. Now all eyes are focusing on Kansas’s 4th Congressional District. Democratic candidate and veteran James Thompson (D) is running against Ron Estes (R) in this special election taking place today, April 11th for this open House seat.
This area is known for voting heavily Republican. It voted 64%-36% for Trump in 2016 and has not been won by a Democratic Presidential candidate in at least over 50 years. It is primarily white too, with a 74% White population, 7% African American and 12% Latinx. Why are Republicans concerned about this seat?
The likely reasons Republicans are very concerned about Kansas (they sent Ted Cruz to campaign here and had Trump and Pence conduct robocalls and while robocalls are not known for being effective, that is another discussion for another article) is that early voting numbers are higher than usual for Democrats and an internal Republican poll showed Estes up by a single point causing Republicans to pour money and resources into the district.
What Thompson has done in this race to make it competitive is follow the playbook for Paul Davis (D) who in the 2014 Gubernatorial race lost KS-04 by 53%-47% in how he is tying his opponent to unpopular Governor Brownback. Thompson has highlighted his support for veterans and has run on a platform of rural economic populism, similar to the Bernie Sanders playbook. Thompson’s combination of Davis’s and Sanders’s strategies may be a formula for this race. What Thompson’s strategy entails is running up the score in In order to win, he needs a high turnout of Democratic voters and many of them can be found in Wichita.
While Estes will likely win, (the Cook Political Report rates this race as “lean Republican”,) even a loss under 20 points in this seat that voted for Trump by 28 points is a strong sign the resistance is catching fire and it will be a strong sign for the resistance’s chances in the hotly contested special election in Georgia on April 18th for the 6th Congressional District where Jon Ossoff (D) is running and which Cook rates as a “tossup.”
This election night guide will show county benchmarks for Thompson (percentages Thompson must receive in each county in order to win 51% of the two party vote). Keep in mind that there are many competitive races in Kansas where the undecided voters break for the Republicans. The Kansas Gubernatorial race in 2014 is one where Paul Davis (D) was up by two in the RCP average and lost by four and Greg Orman (I) who ran as the more liberal candidate against Sen. Roberts (R) in 2014 was up by one point in the RCP average and lost by 11.
The benchmarks were generated by combining the results of the 2014 Gubernatorial race (due to the similarity of the anti Brownback message) and the 2016 Presidential election (due to the fact it is the most recent election in the 4th district).
Map of the 4th Congressional District Benchmarks:
Red: Estes 15%+
Light Red: Estes 0.1%-14%
Light Blue: Thompson 0.1%-14%
Blank: outside of the 4th Congressional District.
Benchmarks:
Key Counties:
Sedgwick County:
Sedgwick is not only home to Wichita but it is also the most Democratic county (or least Republican) in the 4th District. Trump won here by 18 points and Brownback won here by only two points. Sedgwick also contains 68% of the voters in the district (if Sedgwick casts more than 68% of total votes in the district, it is a good sign for Thompson). It is also the most diverse county in the district, 9% African American, 14% Latinx and 68% White. Sedgwick County also is the only county in the district to trend blue from 2012 to 2016 (Trump outperformed Romney in the rural parts of the district). While an anti Trump message may help in Sedgwick County, what Thompson has done in the campaign is mention Trump as infrequently as possible, instead tying Estes to Brownback and focusing on rural economic populism. In order for Thompson to hit 51% in the 4th district, he must win Sedgwick County by eight points.
Harvey County:
If Thompson’s rural economic populist message is working, expect him to perform well in Harvey County. Besides Segdwick County, it is the only must win county for Thompson other than Sedgwick if Thompson wants to hit 51%. Harvey is a bellwether county. The benchmarks have Thompson up by four points here.
Butler County:
Butler County is expected to cast 10% of the votes and is the most populous county other than Sedgwick in the 4th district. Estes is expected to perform well here, the benchmarks have him winning by 14 points. Watch Butler County to see if Republican turnout is high and if Thompson is successfully making inroads in the Republican base counties.
Overall, while watching the election results, keep an eye on a few questions.
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Is Thompson winning his Sedgwick County base by eight points or more?
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How well is Thompson performing in traditionally Republican rural counties such as Butler?
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Who is winning Harvey County?
The questions will tell us who will win Kansas’s 4th Congressional District and how close the margin will be at the end of the night.