In a result few imagined possible just three months ago, Democrat Jon Ossoff took first place by a wide margin on Tuesday in the special primary election for Georgia's 6th Congressional District, forcing a runoff on June 20 with former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who led a badly fractured GOP field. As of this writing, Ossoff had won 49 percent of the vote compared to 20 for Handel.
For decades, Republicans have dominated this conservative district in the northern Atlanta suburbs that Newt Gingrich once represented: Tom Price, who vacated this seat earlier this year to join Donald Trump's cabinet, won re-election in November by 23 points, and Mitt Romney did the same four years earlier. But Trump himself turned out to be deeply unpopular in this affluent, well-educated area and only carried the district by a slim 48-47 margin, according to data first released by Daily Kos Elections.
That one result—the only close election in Georgia's 6th since forever—gave Democrats a glimmer of hope that perhaps they could put this seat in play. That they did, and exceeded all expectations. Ossoff, an investigative filmmaker who had previously served as a congressional aide, entered the race in January, making a big splash with the endorsement of civil rights legend John Lewis, who represents a nearby seat. Soon after, he earned the support of Daily Kos, whose community shot him on to the map with an unprecedented infusion of over $400,000 in just a week—all in small donations.
That kicked off an amazing positive feedback loop: Ossoff earned a big round of media coverage, which helped him raise more money, build up a national profile, and garner more endorsements … which in turn won him still more press attention, brought in more cash … you get the idea. Ultimately, Ossoff raised a mind-blowing $8.3 million dollars ($1.5 million of which came from Daily Kos), with an average contribution of just $42.
Those numbers crushed the rest of the field, which was badly fractured between 11 different Republican candidates. In fact, things got so dicey in the final weeks that the GOP spent millions attacking Ossoff on the airwaves (trying to tie him to Nancy Pelosi, Osama bin Laden, and Han Solo) because they feared he might capture a majority of the vote on Tuesday and win the election outright.
That didn't happen, but Ossoff came remarkably close, and now he'll have the chance to go mano-a-mano with Handel.
The conventional wisdom says that Republicans should have the advantage in a one-on-one race, but the conventional wisdom also said this contest should have been a slam dunk for the GOP in the first place. And while Ossoff has borne the brunt of Republican attacks, he hasn't been able to go on offense—but now he will.
Handel has her own baggage: Progressives know her best as the anti-abortion extremist who was forced to resign as head of the Susan G. Komen breast cancer charity after she tried to get the organization to stop providing funds to Planned Parenthood—a move that turned out to be very unpopular. That will help keep Ossoff’s massive national network of supporters fired up, and it also gives him a ready-made line of attack against Handel that may play very well against her.
Handel also hasn’t had a great electoral track record in recent years: In 2010, she narrowly lost a Republican primary for governor, and in 2014, she took a close third in that year’s Senate primary. And while Republican voters may rally around her now that she's their only choice, some may stay home, as they had options they could happily vote for, ranging from anti-tax radicals to Trump wannabes. Will they now cotton to the bland, establishment-y Handel?
Ossoff, meanwhile, has run a nimble, mistake-free campaign, and if he can continue raising huge sums, he'll be able to put the hurt on his opponent. But there's no doubt that this runoff will be extremely difficult—as difficult as it was for Ossoff to get as far as he already has, if not more so.
Yet win or lose, this race should worry Republicans. The combined Democratic vote on Tuesday was 49 percent, versus 50 for the GOP. By contrast, as we noted above, Price easily beat his unheralded Democratic opponent by 23 points. That means Ossoff moved the needle by an astounding 22 points—very similar to what Democrat James Thompson managed in an even more conservative district in Kansas a week earlier.
This means that, with Donald Trump's unwitting help, Democrats are doing exactly what they need to do in order to take back the House next year. The Georgia outcome shows that they can hold on to the votes of anti-Trump Republicans in highly educated suburbs that moved Democratic last year, while the Kansas results demonstrate they're capable of winning back rural areas that shifted toward the GOP.
And while Democrats would be thrilled to win Georgia's 6th, neither it nor Kansas' 4th are the type of district they need to carry in 2018 in order to win the House. That's because there are many more Republican-held districts that are much less red than either of these seats, all of which will be up for re-election in the midterms. And in dozens and dozens of them, if the GOP's margins once again collapse by 20 points, Republican incumbents are going to lose.
But that's a year-and-a-half away. For now, progressives are going to fight like hell to help Ossoff defeat Handel, and if he does, hoo boy—look out!
Back in the saddle, everyone. Give $3 to Jon Ossoff ASAP to help him knock the starch out of Karen Handel!