Six is rapidly becoming my number demonstrating transition from “safe Republican” to definitely swing competitive Purple Democratic opportunity Congressional Districts. It took persistence and decades of chipping away to transform the Texas US Congressional 6th District into a truly purple district. In less than 6 months we have seen the Georgia 6th go from a Safe Red District into the most competitive Congressional District in the Nation.
In 2016 the DNC refused to designate either GA-6 or TX-6 as a Red to Blue District and devote any resources there. In Texas we are still fighting an up hill battle but our work in turning it purple has already attracted a vigorous slate of 2018 challengers for Smokey Joe Barton. In most previous cycles we had to scrap and beg and persuade to get one or two folks to even consider running there. In Georgia yesterday a first time Democratic candidate came within less than 2 percentage points of winning a congressional seat which has previoulsy been won by Republicans by such wide margins that Democratic challengers were dismissed as solitary ants.
Lost Cause — absolutely not. The Democrat led every Republican in the race by over 20 percentage points! Jon Ossoff emerged despite having a funny sounding surname and no name recognition and running from the party which has not carried that district since Jimmy Carter was in the White House!
PROSPECTS FOR THE GA-06 June 20th RUN-OFF
It is a crap shoot. But it is one where the dice is weighted 50/50 instead of the way it was weighted 70% R to 30 or less % Blue in most of the previous election cycles. Only 48.5% of the voters abandoned Republican candidates in the GA-06 Special Election. Ossoff needed an additional 1.9% of the vote to avoid a run-off.
In races where there are vigorious battles between candidates of the same party, usually the battle sours a percentage of the voters and they refuse to support their party's nominee. In this race, the inter party competition was on the GOP side. I think that the Dems will unite behind Jon, and if there are any who sit it out it or shift party's for the run off, it will probably come from the Republican side. There will be a lot of money coming into this run-off. This is good. It will help make it more easy to attract Democratic down-ticket candidates for other races in 2018 now that the results demonstrate that Democratic voters are truly in the majority in most of the precincts in the GA-6. This is a watershed moment for Democrats in the Georgia 6th and there has not been much water shedding in the Democratic direction in that district since Jimmy Carter left the White House.
What is really exciting is comparing the 2017 GA 06 Special Election map with the 2016 Presidential General Election Map for that districts and seeing it demonstrate how rapidly precincts whiich are light red can shift to light blue. It also shows that precincts which are light blue can switch to precincts which have a 70% + Democratic (Dark Blue) turnout when enough resources are put in those races to allow strong media and grassroots walking, calling and mailing outreach. This special election shows that a “Safe usually 70% to 75% GOP voting Congressional Disctrict can become the nation’s leading swing district in less than a 6 month timeframe.
LOOKING FARTHER WEST
For much too long the Democratic Party (DNC) has focused its resources into protecting incumbent districts and on to the few districts in the nation which are truly swing districts (termed Red to Blue) because they are perceived to be the easiest for Democrats to win. Other candidates in other districts are denied any help from the party. Democratic Nominess who are in General Election battles with GOP incumbents do not even get listed on the DNC’s website as candidates unless they are termed Red to Blue. No advice or training or resources are devoted to those who face the hardest fights against the most egregious obnoxious GOP/TeaParty incumbents. When folks step out and run and others step forward to support them, instead of encouragement and support, most Democrats who would like to see the Republicans defeated in those district hurl scorn and discouragement toward the Democratic challenger and their supporters. I have personally had more than one fundraiser for the DNC tell me that I was wasting my time and money when I give to progressive Democratic nominees challenging GOP incumbents in Texas!
Despite the discouragement, I have watched challengers in Texas chip away at the percentages of votes entrenched GOP incumbent acrue in Texas Congressional Districts. I have witnessed this happen in races where the candidates were only able to raise $14K to $20K while running against incumbent with million dollar plus war chests. When the percentages steadily go up for the Democratic challengers and those challengers remain under funded and lack staff and volunteers, I cannot help but wonder what would occur if the challengers had some funding. Usually gerrymandering is cited as the reason we should not attempt to build infrastructure in red districts or support good Democrats who challenge them. Obviously the borders of the GA 6 were not drawn to aid a Democrat in winning that seat any more than the borders of most congressional districts in Texas are drawn to asisst a Democrat from winning in those districts, yet some how a first time Democratic Challeger was able to come within less than 2% of taking the Georgia 6th last night. The borders didn’t change. There was not a drastic shift in the media market. The DNC didn’t get over it’s infighting and misplaced priorities to substantially assist any of the Democrats running in this special election. Even though Ossoff was a Bernie supporter in the ‘16 primary we did not witness Bernie giving any substantial support to Osoff or Hillary supporters keeping their distance from him. In fact,most of the Hillary supporters around the nation I heard from seemed to be doing something to help him and were sincerely hoping Ossoff would carry it past the 50% mark and avoid a run-off. Most of the outcry I’m hearing from Hillary supporters regarding the Party and Ossoff’s Congressional Race is disgust that the Party Chair is traveling on a “Unity Tour” instead of focusing attention on helping Democrats win these special elections.
I am not from Georgia so I am less familiar with this district than I am with those in Texas. There are some striking similarities between the GA-6 and the TX-6. I was Chief of Staff a couple of election cycles ago in the Texas 6th. Georgia 6 was perviously held by a GOP Speaker of the House. The Texas 6th was previously held by Phil Gramm. It has not been represented by a Democrat since January 5, 1983 when Gramm resigned from the Democratic Party following his abandoning the Democratic economic plan and working to get Reagan’s Trickle Down economic plan passed through Congress. Gramm resigned from his seat and ran in and won a special election as a Republican to finish out his term for his Congressional Seat. In 1985 Gramm won a Senate seat and endorsed Joe Barton in the race for the US Tx 6th seat. Joe Barton was elected to that seat in 1984 and took office January 3, 1985.
n the 1990s Barton’s percentages showed him winning with about 70% of the voters. Now he usually wins by about 12 points, Many precincts he previously carried by large margins in Tarrant county have consistently voted Blue for his Democratic challenger in the past two election cycles. David Cozad carried the majority of all of the precincts in SE Tarrant County and Meadowbrook and Hanley in East Fort Worth in ‘14 and Ruby Woolridge retained those voters in ‘16. These are in the part of Tarrant County which for decades were dubbed “too red to win.” Tarrant has turned from bright red to purple. The two rural counties in the 6th District have been difficult for the Democratic challengers to crack because of poor infrastructure and lack of monetary resources. However, there are already several energetic Democratic campaigns on the ground in the Texas 6th preparing for the 2018 Democratic Primary. One candidate, Jana Lynn Sanchez, has already exceeded the total funding raised by any of the other Democratic challengers in the TX-6 during their entire Primary and General Election cycles and we are less than 4 months into the “exploratory campaign” phase. We may actually see a candidate run against Joe with funding for GOTV blockwalking staff and a media budget this year!
The Democratic Primary in TX-06 is beginning to heat up and look interesting. Both of the women, Sanchez and the 2016 Democratic Nominee, Ruby Woolridge, are educated minority women. Woolridge is a Black ordained minister/retired school counselor. Sanchez brings a strong resume to the field and considerable political experience. There are a couple of young men sticking their feet in the race also. Sanchez is from Ellis county and her activities should help energize a part of the district which has been difficult for the pervious candidate (all from Tarrant) to energize.
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT
The largest number of voters in the current TX 6th are in Arlington in Tarrant County. Arlington, although still represented by a 100% Republican City Council and having only one Democrat on the Tarrant County Commissioners Court, is an aging city which is becoming less White and less affluent. Landlocked, Arlington has lost ground to other suburbs where land cost is less and open space for new development is still available. The biggest employers in Arlington are the GE assembly plant and the University of Texas at Arlington. Even though many in Arlington struggle financially, it is far more affluent than the two rural counties in the Texas 6th District. Unemployment rates and percentages of person living below the poverty line escalate in the two solid Republican voting rural counties of the Texas 6th District (Ellis and Navarro). There is a shift of population out of Democratic majority Dallas County into the northern part of Ellis County which is a trend which may help Ellis shift from Bright Red to Purple. It can also help offset the votes from the two rural counties which erode higher percentage of Democrats who vote against Joe Barton in Tarrant County.
DISTRICT MAPS
There have been two court ruling which will probably impact the District maps for the 2018 election. At this time it is difficult to predict what impact it will have on US TX 6 but is is probable that the boundary of that district will shift somewhat. The last redistricting in response to court rulings prompted creation of three minority opportunity district. Previously my neighborhood (Arlington Entertainment District) was part of the TX-6th. Congressional 33 was carved out of part of US-6th. It was drawn to pit the Blacks in Fort Worth against the Latina’s in Dallas and to feed off of Dallas’ and Fort Worth’s competitive dynamic. Several Hispanic candidates ran splitting the larger Latina vote. Marc Veasey, although from the smaller (Black) minority in the district, won the seat. There is only a thin strip of land through Arlington and Grand Prairie in the US TX 33rd. We are only included as a connector between the two larger population areas in Fort Worth and Dallas. It is probably that a new map may adjust some of the 33rd District and the adjacent US TX6th. Similar expectations are logical considering the recent court rulings in Austin, San Antonio and along the Texas Gulf Coast and in Texas’ only truly swing district, the gigantic 23rd which runs all the way from the outskirts of El Paso into San Antonio and contains more land than the combined land mass of 9 states. Candidates are already in the exploratory phase for 2018 without having much of a clue about the shape of the districts they may be in.
Some candidates are waiting until they see the map before they form exploratory committees and start fund raising. Down on the Gulf Coast, Solomon Ortiz, Jr., son of the Congressman who previously held the district now represented by Blake Farenthold, has stated that if the map is adjusted in that district, he may return to Texas from D.C. and run in his dad’s old district.
OPEN SEATS
Republican Sam Johnson has announced that he will not file for re-election in the district which is in the NE part of the DFW metroplex and extends into East Texas. Several of the 2016 Democratic Nominees are indicating that they are intending to build on the infrastructure they have already created and run again in 2018. James Cargas in Houston is one candidate that surprised many with the turnout he was able to inspire to vote for him in the Congressional District former Mayor Annise Parker told me was among the most difficult areas of the city for a Democrat to win. Cargas is among the candidates in Texas who has earned my highest respect for professionalism, intellect, governmental experience, temperament, and consistently extending a helping hand graciously to other candidates.
Two who were newcomers to the political field in 2016 and were among the Democratic non-incumbent challengers who got the highest percentage of votes in the General Election have indicated that they intend to run again in ‘18. Both Mark Gibson and Jan McDowell had few volunteers and very meager campaign budgets, but persisted in running campaigns which attracted voters for themselves and for the top of the ticket. McDowell is a CPA and Gibson is an attorney and CEO of a tech firm.
MID TERM HELL
In areas which have entrenched Republicans in statewide offices, the mid-terms are especially difficult for Democratic challenger. The last Democrat to hold a state wide office was Garry Mauro in the Land Commission. That was a long time ago! For many many election cycles too many GOP incumbents have been without challengers and have been able to raise large sums and transfer it to other candidates to enable them to defeat incumbent Democrats. Most Democrats are much more frugal and can make a campaign dollar stretch much farther than the Republicans have to stretch theirs. Being an incumbent allows you to keep your campaign staff together and enables you to refine your campaign and office communication processes. However, when voters are distressed with increasingly less favorable economic conditions and are disgusted with the top of the party, incumbents find seats in play in previously safe districts. It will require Democrats reaching across District borders to assist challengers and Democrats within districts to continue volunteering and organizing and encouraging and mentoring and donating locally, building that infrastructure even though most people seem to be more intent on discouraging them for doing so than in working with them to win. It means we have to evaluate what we have done, what helps, what deters, what opportunities we were not able to pursue and how we can pursue the most important opportunities in the future.
It means that those who are younger need to learn from the lessons those of us who are really tired demonstrated, while evaluating and weighing the current climate and course of actions open in the moment. We do not need a revolution in this country. We need a sane evolution, improving what doesn’t work and honoring what does. Money cannot buy a seat. However, having resources and people who are in place to help you motivate others in moving in a direction which will benefit the people of our country through sound government rather than anarchy will make the difference we all seek. Personally I don’t seek perfection but I really would like to have a respite from some of this inane stupidity.
IN SUMMARY
You can’t win unless you have a horse in the race. Horses need feed and races require race tracks and grandstands. Sometimes the one who comes in 2nd is the one who wins the next race. Other times it is a horse which hasn’t run on that track who is the winner. Running without winning can prepare you to win. Not winning ever in Politics is much more serious with much more dire consequences to many more people than the impact of which horse is wearing the wreath of flowers after the ponies run. In the USA too many of our districts and too many of our candidates have been marginalized as not consequential enough to feed or keep the tracks and grandstands in shape for a race. That grandstand and track should be the government (election officials) and Party’s responsibility. Feeding the horses and training them should be the corporate experience and contribution of the groundswell of activists who believe in the ideals which are reflected by our party. It is important to understand what those ideals are. Otherwise, horses may be trained to stay in the stall or run in the wrong direction.
It is important to always keep our eye on the direction our party leaders attempt to lead us into or the patterns of stagnation which result in the same results because we refuse to revise and improve. We have more opportunity to win in 2018 than we had in 2014. Some of us prefer to give directly to candidates (feed the horse ourselves) and others prefer to give to the party (help build and decide what racetracks to run on). This is a dialogue which is worthy of serious consideration. All of us do not have to come to the same conclusion or support the same Democratic nominees to build the infrastructure and encourage winning horses to get into the race. I think we are at watershed moments which will result in more of our favored candidates in the winning circle. We have had our season of mourning and it is soon to be the break of the new day when we see more decent qualified people of integrity sworn into office. In the meantime we resist, we march, we phone call, we enlist, we donate, we serve, we evaluate, we analze, we share and we speak up both in the party and in the community.
Faith Chatham is a Democratic activist who co-founded the Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC and DFW Regional Concerned Citizens. She lives in the DFW Metroplex. She has served on steering committees for statewide Democratic challengers in Texas and as Chief of Staff for US Congressional campaigns. She can be followed on Twitter at @FaithChatham or @TXFedBlueSeed.