Leading Off
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation arrives in Colorado, where Democrats hold the state House and the governorship, but where the GOP has a one-seat edge in the Senate. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2016 and past cycles here.
Campaign Action
Hillary Clinton carried Colorado 48-43, a similar margin to Obama's 51-46 2012 win. While Clinton's victory helped Democrats expand their edge in the state House from a thin 34-31 to a stronger 37-28, the GOP's 18-17 Senate majority remained stubbornly intact. Clinton carried 21 of the 35 Senate seats, flipping one Romney districts while carrying all the Obama constituencies. However, only half the chamber was up in 2016, and two Republicans who hold Clinton seats won't be up until 2018. Colorado's legislative districts were drawn up by a bipartisan commission, and the independent member broke the tie and selected the maps drawn by the Democratic members; the maps were later upheld by the state Supreme Court.
Both parties have been fighting over the Colorado Senate for years. In 2012, Team Blue won a 20-15 majority there, and after the Sandy Hook school shooting, the Democratic-led state government passed several gun safety laws. The NRA financed a successful recall campaigns against two Democratic legislators, whittling the Democratic Senate edge to one seat. Republicans soon began a recall campaign against a third Democratic senator, Evie Hudak, who resigned from her suburban Denver seat in late 2013 to avert the recall campaign. Local Democrats picked Arvada City Councilwoman Rachel Zenzinger to fill the seat, but she lost 48-47 to Republican Laura Woods in 2014 to fill the last two years of Hudak's term. That fall, Democrats won back the two Senate seats they lost in the recall campaigns, but they lost two other districts, giving the GOP the one-seat edge they enjoy today.
In 2016, Zenzinger challenged Woods to a rematch for a full four-year term. SD-19 swung slightly to the right, going from 52-45 Obama to 48-43 Clinton, but Zenzinger won their rematch 48-46. However, Democrats lost SD-25, which is also located in the Denver suburbs. Clinton still won the seat, but her 47-45 margin was a lot more modest than Obama's 55-42, and Republican Kevin Priola won 52-48. Appointed GOP state Sen. Jack Tate also successfully won a full term 53-47 even as his SD-27, which is also located in suburban Denver, swung all the way from 51-47 Romney to 49-42 Clinton.
The good news for Democrats is they have two good targets in 2018. In 2014, Republican Beth Martinez Humenik won SD-24, which is located in suburban Denver (sensing a pattern?) 51-49; Clinton's 48-43 win was smaller than Obama's 53-44 victory, but the incumbent is far from safe. Republican state Sen. Tim Neville in turn unseated a Democratic incumbent 51-49 in SD-16, a Denver-area seat that went from 50-47 Obama to 50-41 Clinton. If Democrats can flip either seat while holding their own elsewhere, they'll finally win back the Senate.
However, while there are no Democrats in Trump seats, that doesn't mean Team Blue only needs to focus on offense next year. In 2014, Democrat Leroy Garcia won SD-03, a Pueblo County seat that the GOP had picked up in the previous year's recall campaigns, by a 55-45 margin. However, while Clinton still carried this seat (which is not located in suburban Denver), her 48-43 margin was much smaller than Obama's 58-39. Democrats will also want to keep an eye on SD-05, a Western Slope seat that Clinton won 49-43.
We'll turn to the House, where every seat is up each two years. Clinton carried 40 of the 65 seats, trading one Obama seat for four Romney districts. The 2012 presidential results actually do a better job explaining which party holds each House district than 2016, since every Democrat represents an Obama seat and every Republican holds a Romney district, and this result astonishingly also happened in 2012 too.
Democrats managed to narrowly hold their majority during the 2014 GOP wave. However, while the commission picked the Democratic-leaning maps, they may not have the built-in edge one might expect from a legislatively drawn all-out gerrymander. One way to illustrate this is to sort each seat in each chamber by Clinton's margin of victory over Trump and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Clinton carried the median House seat 49-43, very similar to her 48-43 win statewide; in the Senate, Clinton took the median seat 48-43 as well. Still, it's also worth noting that in 2014, while Democratic Sen. Mark Udall lost statewide 48-46 to Republican Cory Gardner, he actually carried a narrow majority of the Senate and 35 of the 65 House seats, so Team Blue may have a little more room for error thanks to the maps.
Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is termed-out next year, and both parties will fight hard to win. The stakes are very high here: It's quite possible that Democrats will hold the governorship and the House, and net the one Senate seat they'd need to have full control of the government. It's also possible the GOP will hold their ground in the Senate and take the governorship and House, and be the ones in the driver's seat. And of course, we could have another split decision.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Appointed Alabama Sen. Luther Strange may be in for quite a crowded Aug. 15 GOP primary for the final three years of Jeff Sessions' Senate term. Strange attracted scorn from fellow Republicans for accepting an appointment from then-Gov. Robert Bentley, even as Strange's attorney general's office was investigating Bentley for covering up a sex scandal. State Rep. Ed Henry, who led the charge to impeach Bentley before the governor resigned in disgrace earlier this month, kicked off his primary bid immediately, and more Yellow Hammer State Republicans are on the move.
On Monday, Randy Brinson announced that he would step down as the head of the Christian Coalition of Alabama and run. Brinson, a gastroenterologist who has led the group since 2006, has connections to the state's powerful religious conservatives, and he sounds like he will make corruption the main issue of his campaign. However, the Montgomery Advertiser's Brian Lyman notes that divisions over gambling could hamper Brinson's bid.
In 2007, the CCA supported legislation that would limit electronic bingo in what Brinson said was an attempt to contain gambling. However, in a very Peoples' Front of Judea/ Judean People's Front scenario, the group Christian Action Alabama argued that the gambling owners had hijacked the Christian Coalition of Alabama; a few years later, the AP reported that the CCA took $12,500 from groups linked to gambling interests; Brinson claimed not to know where the money originally came from, and said the CCA would stop taking money from PACs. Gambling remains a hot-button issue among social conservatives in Alabama, and if Brinson gains enough traction, his primary rivals have a few lines of attack.
On Friday, ex-state Rep. Perry Hooper Jr. announced that he had formed an exploratory committee. As we've noted before, Hooper was a finalist for the Senate appointment that ultimately went to Strange. Hooper doesn't look like an especially strong candidate, though. He lost renomination for his state House seat in 2002, and he lost the general election for the state Public Service Commission four years later. Hooper was the co-chair of Donald Trump's state campaign, so maybe he can pick up some support from Trump fanatics, but so was his would-be primary rival, state Rep. Ed Henry.
A number of other Republicans are eyeing this seat, and we won't need to wait long to hear from perhaps the most infamous of them: Suspended state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, who made national headlines in 2015 for defying orders from federal courts to recognize same-sex marriage, says he'll announce his plans on Wednesday. The state GOP recently set the candidate filing deadline for May 17, so other prospective GOP candidates have a little time to decide. If no one takes a majority in the August primary, there will be a runoff in September.
Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the nation, and it will be very tough for Democrats to score a pickup in the Dec. 12 general. Still, as Scott Brown's 2010 win in deep blue Massachusetts demonstrated, strange things can happen when the political winds are blowing against the president's party, and a bloody GOP primary wouldn't hurt. The Alabama Political Reporter says that state Rep. Chris England is considering, but he doesn't appear to have said anything publicly.
● PA-Sen: On Monday, real estate executive Jeff Bartos announced that he would seek the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Bob Casey. Bartos briefly ran for the House in the 16th District last cycle, but dropped out long before the primary. Bartos currently serves on the board of a political committee that is run by prominent state GOP fundraiser Bob Asher, so he may have some useful connections. Two state representatives, Jim Christiana and Rick Saccone, are already in, while Rep. Mike Kelly and businessman Paul Addis are considering. It's unclear at this point if any of them would be strong enough to give Casey a tough time in this competitive, but very expensive, state.
● TX-Sen: Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro is considering challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, and at an event last week he announced that he would "take a few more weeks to come to a decision." Often deemed a rising star by national Democrats, this isn't the first time that Castro has pushed back his deadline for when he would finalize his plans, since he previously said he would declare his intentions by the end of April. Fellow Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke has already been in the Senate race since late March, which would set up Texas Democrats' first major primary battle in many years if Castro jumps in too.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: Democratic Rep. Jared Polis had previously refused to rule out running for governor in 2018, and he recently gave an interview where he confirmed his interest, stating that he'll decide on a bid "in the next month or two." After making a fortune during the 1990s tech boom, Polis is one of the wealthiest Congress members and could afford to self-fund well into the tens of millions of dollars if he wanted to. Prior to representing the safely blue Boulder-area 2nd District since 2009, Polis narrowly won a single six-year term to an at-large seat on Colorado's state Board of Education in 2000, so this wouldn't be the first time he's run statewide if he goes through with it in 2018.
The race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper in this light-blue state has already drawn heated attention from both parties, and if Polis takes the plunge, he'll join a Democratic primary that already has some big names. Fellow Rep. Ed Perlmutter and ex-state Treasurer Cary Kennedy recently joined the race soon after ex-Sen. Ken Salazar took himself out of contention, while ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston is also running for Team Blue and others are considering it too. If Polis were to win the primary and general, he would be the first openly gay man to get elected governor of any U.S. state.
● FL-Gov: Wealthy Florida lawyer John Morgan has been flirting with a bid for the Democratic nod for governor for a while, and although he's reaffirmed that he's interested, he says he's still a while away from deciding. Morgan did say that his decision will be dependent in part on who else runs, and he singled out a few politicians from both sides of the aisle that he thinks would be great governors. However, while GOP state Sen. Jack Latvala actually is considering getting in, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has made it very clear that he's seeking re-election instead. Morgan also said that his friend, former NBA player Grant Hill, "would be the greatest governor the State of Florida has ever had." Hill is reportedly active in Democratic politics, but unless Morgan knows a lot more than he's letting on, there's no reason to think Hill is actually interested in a bid.
If Morgan runs, he can count on one well-known local Democrat. Rep. Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who narrowly lost the 2014 race as a Democrat, is publicly calling for his old law partner to run. If Morgan did get in, he would bring his reported $100 million fortune to the race; Morgan is also quite charismatic, and he has a compelling rags to riches story. However, Morgan denies he has skeletons in the closest because "I've got live bodies in the basement."
We got reminded of one a few days ago, when Morgan responded to 2014 video of him at a pro-medical marijuana rally at a saloon called Boots N Buckles, drink in hand, and swearing profusely. Morgan denied he was drunk, declaring, "I guess if I use the f-word, f-bombs, people think I'm drunk. If that's the case, I'm drunk every damn day of my life. ... When I got on my bus to go back to my beach house, I got drunk. And when I got to my beach house, I got drunker. But I was not drunk at Boots N Buckles."
A few other Democrats are eyeing this open race. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King are already running, while ex-Rep. Gwen Graham says she's close to announcing; Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, who is also very wealthy, sounds likely to get in as well.
● KS-Gov: Democrats aren't used to having competitive primaries in deep-red Kansas, but they may get one next year in the race for governor. Ex-Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer kicked off his bid to replace unpopular termed-out GOP Gov. Sam Brownback a few months ago, and while his early decision may have helped persuade 2014 nominee Paul Davis to explore a run for Congress instead of another gubernatorial race, Brewer may still need to fight for the Democratic nod.
We hadn't heard state House Minority Leader Jim Ward mentioned yet, but the Wichita-based legislator tells the Kansas City Star that he'll consider after the legislative session ends in mid-May. Ex-Kansas Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty, who went on to serve as senior advisor for the regional office of the EPA, already expressed interest back in February, and he reaffirmed it last week. The GOP is also likely to have a crowded primary, though that could change if Brownback takes a job with Trump and elevates Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer to the governorship ahead of the 2018 elections.
● MI-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Calley and state Attorney General Bill Schuette have both been positioning themselves to seek the GOP nomination to succeed termed-out Gov. Rick Snyder for a while, but neither has announced that they're in yet. Calley does seem to have at least announced when he'll announce, though. Calley has launched a $500,000 online ad campaign that features him promoting his work with Snyder, and concludes with the text "5.30.17" flashing across the screen. The high-profile Mackinac Policy Conference is taking place May 30, and it makes sense for Calley to announce at the event.
● OK-Gov: Wealthy Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson has been flirting with a bid for the GOP nomination for a while, and he announced on Monday that he was in. Richardson ran for governor in 2002… but that bid isn't exactly something the GOP likes to remember. Richardson spent $2 million on his independent run and snagged 14 percent of the vote; Democrat Brad Henry narrowly beat Republican Steve Largent by fewer than 7,000 votes, and Richardson's stunt probably cost Team Red the governor's mansion. Richardson did resurrect one piece of his 2002 bid on Monday by once again pledging to abolish state turnpikes, declaring that Oklahoma "must stop the cancer of the turnpikes." Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb is also likely to seek the GOP nomination, while state Auditor Gary Jones is considering it.
● PA-Gov: State Sen. Scott Wagner is so far the only prominent Republican challenging Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf in 2018, while state House Speaker Mike Turzai and wealthy businessman Paul Mango are both reportedly considering bids. Wagner's campaign released an internal poll from early April by McLaughlin & Associates that finds him trouncing both would-be rivals in a hypothetical GOP primary. In a three-way matchup, Wagner leads with 38 percent while Turzai takes just 10 percent and Mango 8 percent, while Wagner dominates Mango by 42-13 in a one-on-one.
In addition to his seven-figure self-funding, Wagner might be hoping that these numbers will deter potential Republican primary opponents from running or big donors from giving to them. However, after infamously blowing former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's 2014 primary re-election race by a staggering 45 points, McLaughlin's long history of astoundingly awful polling misses is so bad that national Republicans reportedly told House candidates not to use the firm. Apparently Wagner didn't get that memo, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if these latest numbers were way off the mark too.
● RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee really is like some not giving up school guy. On Monday, the former governor of Rhode Island, a Republican-turned independent-turned Democrat, didn't rule out a bid against Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo; Chafee only told WPRI that "[i]t's early, and I don't have any further comment other than that," besides "[n]ever say never." Chafee has never been friendly with Raimondo, and he's been an especially vocal critic of hers in recent months. Presumably if Chafee runs, it will be in the Democratic primary, but you never know with this guy.
Chafee has had a long and… interesting… political career. Chafee was a truly moderate Republican when he served in the Senate from 2000 until his 2006 defeat during the Democratic wave. Chafee soon became an independent and endorsed Obama, and won a tight three-way race for governor in 2010. However, Chafee entered office in the shadow of the Great Recession, and he spent his governorship pushing unpopular policies, including a huge sales tax. Chafee also did not have a good relationship with the Democratic-dominated legislature, and in 2011 and 2012, there was also the great "holiday tree" controversy, which did not go over well with voters.
Chafee became a Democrat in early 2013, but with polls showing him in horrible condition ahead of the primary and general election, he announced later that year that he would not seek a second term. Two years later, Chafee launched a strange long-shot bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, an announcement that WPRI's Ted Nesi says was greeted at home with "a mix of shock, bewilderment, amusement and outright hostility." Chafee's brief bid was memorable for his advocacy of the metric system and for his admission that he didn't know what he was really voting on early in his Senate career when he voted to repeal that Glass-Steagall Act, and he dropped out well before the Iowa caucus.
As we've noted before, Raimondo may actually be vulnerable in a Democratic primary. Raimondo has had a shaky relationship with labor over her successful effort as state treasurer to cut pensions five years ago, a move that shot her to prominence and may have saved the state's badly underfunded retirement system but left many angry, especially within organized labor. Raimondo also faced her own sideshow last year from the state's botched rollout of a new tourism slogan ("Rhode Island: Cooler and Warmer"), which was mercifully given a quick death.
A few Democrats expressed interest in challenging the governor in late 2016. But aside from termed-out Attorney General Peter Kilmartin, who said in February that he wouldn't consider a gubernatorial bid for another year, we haven't heard much from anyone besides Chafee since then. However, national Democrats are behind Raimondo, with the DGA airing ads praising her push for two-year free in-state college tuition. In any case, while Raimondo may need to keep an eye on her left flank, it's likely that Chafee just has too much baggage to mount a serious bid. Several Republicans are eyeing this race, and they're likely Raimondo's biggest threat to re-election.
● SD-Gov, SD-AL: Late last year, Sioux Falls Mayor Mike Huether left the Democratic Party to become an independent, and said he was mulling either a bid for governor of South Dakota or for the state's open U.S. House seat. Huether hasn't made his move for either job yet, but he tells the Argus Leader's Stu Whitney that he's still considering. Huether made it no secret that he'd prefer to be governor, but says a House bid looks more promising. Two well-known Republicans, Rep. Kristi Noem and state Attorney General Marty Jackley, are currently running for governor, while the GOP candidates for Congress are far less established. So far, Democrats haven't made a move to seriously contest either office.
● TN-Gov: Wealthy businessman Bill Lee has been considering a bid for the GOP nomination for a while, and he announced he was in over the weekend. In addition to serving on the state's Higher Education Commission, Lee is a former chairman of the Tennessee Prayer Breakfast, which could help him appeal to the state's many socially conservative voters. Ex-state Economic and Development Commissioner Randy Boyd, who is also wealthy, is the only other declared Republican candidate, but a number of other state politicians are eyeing this seat.
House
● MT-AL: Democrat Rob Quist has released his newest ad, which is the second to feature him holding his rifle, but this time he doesn't shoot any TVs. Quist highlights his Montana roots in contrast to former New Jersey resident Republican Greg Gianforte, while he claims he'll fight for not only the right to bear arms, but also the right to hunt on Montana's public lands.
● NM-01: Retired University of New Mexico law school professor and ex-dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez recently announced her candidacy in New Mexico's open 1st District, joining Albuquerque City Council Pat Davis in the Democratic primary. Sedillo Lopez currently serves as executive director of a nonprofit that works to prevent domestic violence and previously ran Bill Clinton's 1996 state campaign, but does not appear to have run for office before. This Albuquerque-based seat favored Hillary Clinton 52-35, and Democrats should be heavily favored to retain it.
● NY-01: Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin won re-election convincingly against a well-funded challenger in 2016 as his suburban Long Island-based 1st District swung hard from 50-49 Obama to 54-42 Trump, but yet another Democrat has expressed interested in opposing him in 2018. Brookhaven National Laboratory scientist Elaine DiMasi is considering whether to run and says she will decide this summer. DiMasi has never run for office before and it's unclear if she has what it takes to run in a difficult race, but she is reportedly involved with 314 Action, a nascent political committee organized to encourage more scientists to run for office against Republicans nationwide.
Democratic ex-Suffolk County Legislator Vivian Viloria-Fisher recently formed an exploratory committee, while Democratic-aligned Independence Party Assemblyman Fred Thiele is also considering running.
● PA-07: Realtor and small-business owner Elizabeth Moro is the latest Democrat to announce a campaign against Republican Rep. Pat Meehan. Meehan hasn't faced a close re-election battle since Republicans heavily gerrymandered his seat in the suburbs west of Philadelphia, but after the well-educated 7th District swung from 50-49 Romney in 2012 to 49-47 Clinton in 2016, Democrats are hopeful that a backlash to Trump can put it into play in 2018. Moro has never run for office before and her campaign skills are unknown, but she does actually reside in the district instead of Philadelphia like two fellow Democratic candidates, attorney Dan Muroff and bioengineer Molly Sheehan.
● SC-05: Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope debuted his second ad ahead of the May 2 special primary where he promises to strengthen the military to take on ISIS, repeal Obamacare, and pass term limits. Like in his first ad, Pope highlights his previous law-enforcement background and record as a prosecutor, while he conspicuously makes no mention of his current job as a legislator.
Legislative
● NY State Senate: While New York is a heavily Democratic state, the GOP has run the state Senate almost nonstop for decades. Democrats actually won a nominal 32-31 majority in 2016, but the eight-member Independent Democratic Conference continues to keep the Republican leadership in power, while a ninth Democrat, Simcha Felder, outright caucuses with the GOP. The Republican-led chamber has spent years blocking progressive policies like a state-level DREAM Act, which would provide tuition assistance to undocumented immigrant students.
However, Trump's presidency has left Democratic activists far less patient with politicians who help the Republicans, and after a protracted budget battle, other state Democrats are looking to unseat some IDC members in Democratic primaries. In a recent Times Union article, Chris Bragg took a look at who might challenge members of the IDC in primaries. To help follow along, Stephen Wolf has created an interactive map, which each Senate seat colored based on whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won it, and whether the seat is held by a Republican, a mainstream Democrat, an IDC member, or a Simcha Felder. You can find the 2012 and 2016 presidential results for each seat here.
The most vulnerable member may be Queens state Sen. Tony Avella, who represents a seat that Clinton carried 61-36. In 2014, the Queens Democratic Party made a serious effort to oust Avella, but ex-state city Comptroller John Liu lost the primary 53-47. Avella is currently running against New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio this year, but he has little money or support. In the event that Avella sticks around to defend his seat, he may face a rematch with Liu, whom Bragg reports is considering another bid. City Councilman Paul Vallone has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, while fellow Councilor Rory Lancman didn't rule out his own campaign, though he said it was unlikely. In New York it only takes a plurality of the vote to win a primary, so in any of these contests, it would be a nightmare for mainstream Democrats if too many candidates run and split the vote.
Another top target will likely be freshman state Sen. Marisol Alcantara, who holds a Washington Heights seat that gave Clinton an enormous 91-7 margin. Last year, Alcantara narrowly won a three-way primary with IDC support. One of her former rivals, ex-Councilor Robert Jackson, reportedly is planning to run again, while the other is unlikely to seek this seat in 2018. However, as Bragg notes, there's a lot more at play than the IDC vs. mainstream Democrats. This seat has large black and Latino primary voting blocs; Jackson's base is with African American voters, while Alcantara's is with Latinos.
Early this year two Democratic incumbents from safely blue New York City seats, Jose Peralta and Jesse Hamilton, defected to the IDC, and local activists were not happy. Bragg reports that Jessica Ramos, a de Blasio press aide, is considering facing Peralta in his Queens seat; however, she has a "complicated relationship" with the county party. Over in Hamilton's Brooklyn seat, Assemblywoman Diana Richardson is mentioned as a possible candidate. But local intra-Democratic splits may also play a big role here. Hamilton is close to Borough President Eric Adams, who has a huge rivalry with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. Richardson is close to Jeffries, and if she runs, this primary could become a proxy war between the two prominent Brooklyn politicians.
Two IDC members hail from north of New York City, and they may also face challengers. In David Carlucci's seat, which includes part of Westchester and Rockland Counties, Bragg mentions Clarkstown Councilor Stephanie Hausner as a possible candidate. This seat backed Clinton 54-43, not as solid as the New York City seats, but still blue enough that mainstream Democrats should be able to hold it. In David Valesky's Syracuse-area district, Bragg says that termed-out Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner is being encouraged to run. Miner is a rival of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat who hasn't made it any secret that he's fine with the GOP running the chamber. Clinton won 54-40 here.
Even if those six IDC members are replaced with mainstream Democrats, Team Blue will have a lot of work to do to actually regain the chamber. IDC leader Jeff Klein decisively survived his 2014 primary, and fellow member Diane Savino (who is also Klein's girlfriend) also looks more secure. Additionally, Felder is in a class of his own. Trump won his Brooklyn seat 53-45, and Felder, a popular local politician who won both parties nominations in 2016, may just be untouchable. The GOP also only needs to pick up one seat to control the Senate regardless of what Felder and the IDC do.
Still, Democrats will want to give as many IDC members as possible a tough time. Up until now, the IDC has only been adding members, and mainstream Democrats need to show that there are consequences to abandoning the party. Additionally, nine Republicans sit in Senate seats that Clinton won, while others hold districts that Trump only narrowly carried. If 2018 goes well, Democrats may be able to replace enough IDC and GOP members to win an outright majority and have the chance to enact serious progressive reforms in New York.
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso gives us the rundown on Tuesday's race in Connecticut:
Connecticut HD-68: This is an open Republican seat in Watertown. The Democratic nominee is Louis Esposito, a former member of the Watertown Town Council. The Republican nominee is Joseph Polletta, a current member of the Watertown Town Council who ran for this seat in 2014... as a Democrat. This seat went 65-32 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 60-38 for Mitt Romney in 2012, making it one of the most Republican seats in the state.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
