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Because there isn't enough drama in the prospect of millions of people being kicked out of their health care and the destruction of a key part of the social safety net, we're being treated to the process story the day after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell released his version of Trumpcare. The breathless reports from Politico are all about how McConnell will bring together his conference to pass this. Will he really be winning by losing? asks the Times.
WASHINGTON — When it comes to managing Republicans’ best interests, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, rarely loses. So it is possible that Mr. McConnell views the potential failure of a hastily written health care bill as an eventual boon.
What that boon is is never really explained in the article, oddly, but it does give a good set up to talk about all the potential obstacles to this actually happening, with the key graph here (though the reporter might not have noticed it):
Mr. McConnell plays his strategic cards so close to the vest that a queen of hearts must be tattooed on his tie. He may, of course, be convinced that the Senate can pass this bill. Perhaps after some moaning, and some changes to the bill through amendments, the 51 senators needed to get the bill over the line (or 50 if Vice President Mike Pence is summoned) will choose a good-enough effort over being tarred as the person who declined to make good on a seven-year promise to unravel President Barack Obama’s signature domestic policy achievement.
Perhaps? Yes, perhaps McConnell has scripted all this out and determined ahead of time which changes to this discussion draft of a bill he will make so that his members who are making various noises against it claim victory and say they protected their constituents. A quote from Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) in the Politico story gives that game away.
"He is extremely talented in cobbling together coalitions of people who disagree," said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a moderate Republican skeptical of the GOP's direction. "I never underestimate his ability to pull something off."
Gee, his ability to pull shit off couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Collins will never actually stand up to him, would it? It's not rocket science, Collins. It's this:
The Republican Party’s moderate wing has been in a continuous state of slow-motion collapse for four decades. If there is a single line that encapsulates the process, it is this quote by a senior Republican aide in Congress to Caitlin Owens: "Moderates always cave. I don't know if conservatives will cave."
Unless the fear of god in the form of their constituents is put into the handful of "moderates" and those whose states took Medicaid expansion—Collins, Lisa Murkowski (AK), Bill Cassidy (LA), Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Rob Portman (OH), Dean Heller (NV), Jeff Flake (AZ), and Cory Gardner (CO)—McConnell will win. We just have to make three of those senators more afraid of us than of him.