Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller is likely the country’s most vulnerable GOP incumbent facing re-election in 2018 by virtue of being the only one whose state voted for Hillary Clinton, and a new PPP survey for Planned Parenthood finds Heller could indeed lose his seat next year. PPP’s first publicly released poll of the horse race shows Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen beating Heller 42-41, while the incumbent sports an underwater approval rating of just 35 percent and a disapproval rating of 44 percent. Rosen has yet to formally launch her candidacy, but recent news outlets widely reported last week that she was expected to do so soon with the support of key national Democrats.
Publicly available polling of this race has been practically nonexistent so far, and any lone poll must be interpreted with caution. However, given the historical tendency for the party in control of the White House to suffer downballot losses in midterms, no Republican incumbent wants to already be stuck in the low 40s and trailing their opponent a year ahead of the election in a state Clinton carried 48-46.
Heller could also be facing blowback from the congressional GOP’s Trumpcare bill, which PPP says Nevada voters oppose by 55-31. While Heller recently made waves when he came out against the bill—although with the hugely important caveat of “in this form”—that personal opposition might not be enough to overcome his party’s association with the unpopular measure, which could cost many Nevadans their health insurance.
Nevada’s unique ballot system could put Heller between a rock and a hard place vis-a-vis swing voters and the hard-right, since the Silver State lets voters choose “None of these Candidates” as an option. If Heller’s opposition helps sink Trumpcare, angry Trump diehards might opt to vote none of the above in protest, allowing Democrats to prevail with a plurality. That would be a bitter twist of irony for Heller after he only won his initial election by 46-45 in 2012 against a Democrat who faced attacks over ethics troubles, with “None” taking 5 percent.