Almost three years ago, then-state Sen. David Ige defeated Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie by a massive 67-31 margin in the Democratic primary. While Ige had entered the race with little name recognition and little money, Abercrombie had managed to upset pretty much every major faction in the state Democratic Party during his tenure. Ige looks to be in better shape than Abercrombie with more than a year to go before the next Democratic primary, but a new Merriman River Group survey for Civil Beat indicates that Ige does have good reasons to at least be prepared for a primary.
The Merriman poll gives Ige a meh 35-38 approval rating, while Democratic voters give the governor a better, but not incredible, 44-26 score. Hawaii is a notoriously tough state to poll and we don’t have much data to work with, but at least some local Democrats are acting like they think Ige is beatable in a primary. Maui County Mayor Alan Arakawa said in April that Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho "is going to run for the governor's office, and he will be probably be the next governor.” Carvalho, who is termed-out of his current job, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Kevin Dayton recently that he “appreciate[s] the many people who have approached me to run for governor. I am considering various options and have not made a final decision,” and adds he “will be making an announcement in the near future.”
A few other Aloha State Democrats also are making noises about running. State Sen. Jill Tokuda told Dayton that she’s seriously considering running for governor or lieutenant governor, arguing that Ige’s administration “still feels like they've got the training wheels on.” Hawaii News Now General Manager Rick Blangiardi dodged any questions about his plans, saying it “would be really premature for me to even comment on right now.”
One person we hopefully won’t see on the 2018 ballot in any form is ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, a longtime Democratic politician who took 12 percent of the vote as an independent in 2014. Hannemann took some shots at Ige, but says that, while he’s been approached about running again (though it’s unclear for what party), he’s “very happy with the causes that I'm engaged with right now.” Unfortunately, that’s not a no.
Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who lost an excruciatingly close 2014 Democratic primary to appointed Sen. Brian Schatz, also has been mentioned, and Hanabusa did not comment on her 2018 plans. However, while Dayton writes that her supporters have encouraged her to get in, some political observers don’t expect her to run. They note that Hanabusa just returned to Congress last year after freshman Rep. Mark Takai died, and it would be awkward for her to quickly run for governor so soon after getting back to D.C. The 2018 Senate race may also factor into her plans. Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono, who is up for re-election, also recently was treated for kidney cancer. Hirono says she’ll run again, but if her health forces her to change course, Hanabusa might be interested in running to succeed her.
It’s rare for a sitting governor to lose renomination, but there are reasons to think that Ige at least needs to watch his back. Civil Beat’s Nathan Eagle writes that, while Ige has avoided any major scandals, he “has not produced many tangible results to please voters,” arguing that Ige has instead focused on “important objectives that don’t make for easy sound bites or snappy headlines, such as eliminating unfunded liabilities and updating the tax system.”
Ige may also have made some of the same types of mistakes that ended up costing Abercrombie re-election. As Daily Kos Elections community member Skaje wrote in an excellent 2014 piece just after the primary, Abercrombie didn’t have any notable scandals either, but he alienated major Democratic groups like the powerful teachers unions and environmentalists. In Ige's case, Eagle writes that teachers and parents have complained for years about hot classrooms, arguing that they’ve made it tougher for students to learn. However, while Ige set a goal to provide air conditioning to 1,000 classrooms by early 2016, only about 200 classrooms have had the promised air-cooling installed a year-and-a-half later.
Ige also got off to a rough start with environmentalists after failing to fill several key posts during the first half of his governorship, but he’s had more successes recently. Dayton also suggests that Ige’s relatively weak fundraising—he had just $286,000 on hand at the end of 2016—makes it look like he’s complacent ahead of what could be a challenging campaign. Dayton also says that angry lawmakers, lobbyists, and Democratic activists believe that Ige is just an indecisive leader, a criticism that Tokuda echoed.
Still, it’s certainly too early to say that 2018 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2014. Despite some missteps, Ige doesn’t appear to have made the legion of enemies that the last governor made, nor do Democratic primary voters appear ready to oust him. It’s also possible that, if enough people challenge Ige, they’ll split the vote enough to secure him renomination.
Hawaii is a very Democratic state, and Team Blue’s nominee will likely be the clear favorite in November. State Rep. Bob McDermott, one of the very few Republicans who holds elected office, is running, but he doesn’t look like an especially intimidating foe. Still, it’s always possible that someone more recognizable will get in if they smell an opportunity.