Note: This article is the sister to “Is a Trump Coup Possible?”
Coups are made by people. As a coup comes from within government, the powerful people there are the ones that matter for the initial coup. Later, there might be a counter coup from within government, perhaps inspired by mass demonstrations in the street. Things could develop into civil war, or revolution, or both. But at the start, if it is a coup we are talking about, than we need to analyze the powerful people.
So I’ve made a scorecard of the 44 most powerful people in terms of potentially changing the U.S. government illegally during the Trump administration in the Spring of 2017. I’ve categorized them by their primary loyalty: Dominionist, Capitalist, Military, Republican, Trumpist, and Unknown. Of course, every one of us has divided loyalties but when push comes to coup each individual inevitably comes to some decision, even if it is not to act. So I’ve attempted to figure out the primary loyalty of these potential promulgators of a coup d’état.
The relevant categories, in my opinion, are:
Dominionist – This is a term from academics analyzing politicized fundamentalist Christianity in the U.S. It is not a term Dominionists use for themselves but the definition is clear. Dominionist believe that Christians of their sort (anti-women, anti-sexual and identity freedom, overwhelmingly white) have been given dominion over the land and over the politics of the Earth. They reject the separation of church and state (sometimes openly, usually only in private) and work toward the day when the U.S. is openly and legally defined as a Christian country, their country. They believe in an especially virulent form of American Exceptionalism that includes spreading American “Christian” values to the world at the point of a gun. So, some players who aren’t particularly active as Christians per se (and may not even believe in the rapture!), but see the current world as a black and white struggle between evil Islam and good Christian (or Christian-Judeo) civilization, are coded here as Dominionist.
Capitalist – In general they conflate short term profits for major U.S. corporations with what is best for America (and the world). Capitalists disagree often on such issues as who gets the latest legal advantages, which externalities the public will pay for at what rate, and things like wars, trade limits and free trade that only benefit some capitalists, but what they agree on is everything is framed by economics, reduced to profits, and the richest are the best and they should rule. If labeled Capitalist, a player is as likely to serve in a Democratic administration as a Republican. This is especially true of bankers. No matter who is President, Goldman Sachs is guaranteed a number of the most important positions in managing the economy. Just look at Obama’s appointments, Hilary Clinton’s proposed appointments, and Trump’s actual appointments. Capitalists prefer stability, but not in the face of a threat to their super-profits and the laws (and other arrangements) that make these possible.
Military – U.S. military officers (and some others such as FBI agents, as former Directory Comey reminded Trump at one of their uncomfortable meetings) swear an oath to the U.S. Constitution. However, that same Constitution makes the President the Commander-in-Chief. So, given orders from their commander that seem to go against the Constitution, military officers will have the hard task of judging what course fulfills their oath. I would predict that in a Constitutional Crisis, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Chiefs of the various branches (Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force) would consult together about what to do. The influence on their decisions of other active or retired military in positions of power is apt to be considerable. Their first priority might well be the survival of the Republic but in that case, a close second, would be the good standing of the U.S. Military in the eyes of the public. They will be profoundly influenced by what is happening in the streets and what the lower ranks are likely to feel, and do. The U.S. military is the most integrated major institution in the country. While there are strong racist, nativist, misogynist, and Dominionist currents in the U.S. military, they are constrained by the make-up of the forces, and the strong elements of meritocracy, and even more the mania for cooperation/harmony that precludes the military fighting itself, that drives the culture. Still, the chain-of-command context and a general belief in authoritarianism in the higher ranks means that under certain conditions we can say it is very possible that the U.S. military leadership might stand aside from, or even support, a coup.
Republican – While all Republicans support unfettered capitalism, and a majority are pretty militaristic and comfortable with the national security state, the ones labeled “Republican” here put the Grand Old Party above everything else (especially the good of the country) except their own ambition.
Trumpets –Key players who have Trump himself as their primary loyalty. This is not a big group. The Donald is not a man who inspires real loyalty. Even among his family members there is the impression that some are only with him as the best option for achieving their goals of wealth and power. We shall see who stands with him in the end.
Unknown – There is just not enough evidence to even make a good guess. Some of these are close to being labeled Constitutionalists, against all but truly legal changes in government.
There are three kinds of soft coups:
1) 25th amendment (18 deciders: 5 Republicans, 5 Dominionists, 4 Capitalists, 3 Military, 1 Unknown). Goes to Congress if the President disputes it. This is a legal process, that would only be a soft coup if it involved lying or drugging Trump or some other deeply immoral and/or illegal actions.
2) Impeachment (House Judicial Committee, then House) and conviction (Senate). As the grounds for impeachment are very cryptic, one can easily conceive of a soft coup done under the cover of a legal impeachment. If either Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton would have been convicted after their impeachments it would have been a soft coup. The grounds were bogus, the impetus was purely political. As with the recent regime change in Brazil, as Glenn Greenwald explains in “Major New Brazil Events Expose the Fraud of Dilma’s Impeachment” (The Intercept, June 20, 2016). [https://theintercept.com/2016/06/30/major-new-brazil-events-expose-the-fraud-of-dilmas-impeachment-and-temers-corruption/source]
3) Forced Resignation, as what happened with Nixon who was forced out by the defection of the Republican Party and many personal supporters. Polls show he still had a plurality of public support when he resigned. In many ways a “good” coup, but don’t forget that it came with a promised pardon by President Ford. In some ways, Nixon’s impeachment, conviction, and imprisonment would have been more just, and better for the American soul. It was a soft coup by the establishment, to keep themselves in power while Nixon went into quiet internal exile.
There is a range of hard coups, from the President achieving martial law and rule by Executive Dictat with legislative and/or judicial support (how Hitler first got total power), to factions of the military storming the seat of government and killing the elected President.
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Here follows a rough scorecard, based totally on my research and analysis so inherently flawed, on the coup potential of the key players in the U.S. government, June 2017. Note, it can be read not just to predict for a Trump Coup (martial law) or a coup against Trump (soft in all likelihood) but also, down the line perhaps, a Pense/Dominionist coup.
National Security Council Regular Attendees *
* President Donald Trump -- Trumpist
* Chief of Staff Reince Priebus – Republican
Deputy Asst. to the Pres. Sebastian Gorka – Dominionist
Senior Councilor Stephen Bannon – Dominionist
Senior Advisor for Policy Stephen Millar – Dominionist
* National Security Advisor Lt. Gen McMaster – Military
* Dep. National Security Advisor Dina Powell – Unknown
* Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats – Republican
FBI Director (acting) Andrew McCabe – Unknown
CIA Director Mike Pompeo – Dominionist
* Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossert – Unknown
* Director of National Drug Control (unappointed)
White House Counsel Dan McGahn – Republican
Solicitor General Noel Francisco – Republican
Press Secretary Sean Spicer – Republican
Nat. Trade Council Director Peter Navarro – Capitalist
Nat. Economic Council Director Gary Cohn – Capitalist
Counselor to the Pres. Kellyanne Conway – Dominionist
Director of Strat. Comm. Hope Hicks – Trumpist
Senior Advisor Jared Kushner – Trumpist
Special Assistant Ivanka Trump – Trumpist
Vice-President Pense – Dominionist
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan – Republican
President Pro Tem of the Senate Mitch McConnell – Republican
Cabinet (in order of succession, first 15 are the deciders in the 25th Amendment)
* Secretary of State Rex Tillerson – Capitalist
Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin – Capitalist
* Secretary of Defense Gen. James Mattis – Military
* Chair of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford -- Military
* Attorney General Jeff Sessions – Dominionist
Deputy Att. Gen. Rod Rosenstein -- Unknown
Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke – Military (20+ years as a SEAL)
Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue – Republican
Secretary of Commerce Wilber Ross – Capitalist
Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta – Capitalist
Secretary Health Tom Price – Republican
Secretary of Housing Ben Carson – Dominionist
Secretary of Transportation Elain Chao – Republican
* Secretary of Energy Rick Parry – Dominionist
Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos – Dominionist
Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin – Unknown
Secretary of Homeland Security Gen. John Kelly – Military
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Also in the Cabinet:
Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley – Republican
Environment Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt – Dominionist
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer – Republican
Small Business Administration Administrator Linda McMahon – Unknown