Hi folks, I’m a long time reader, first time poster here on Daily Kos. I’m more interested in the elections side of politics, but I also understand that policy is what actually matters. So for my first post, I decided to give you guys an idea of where I see the 2018 races shaping up now that we’re under 16 months away from November, 2018. This will be my senate post. If y’all like this, I’ll do one on governorships next, and then try to tackle the house a little later.
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Now we’re starting this post assuming one big thing: that this is a pro-Democrat national environment. In the combined both state level and congressional special elections, Democrats have currently outperformed Clinton’s 2016 margins by 11% and Obama’s 2012 margins by 8%. While no one special election is predictive, when taken as a trend (this set has 26 data points), it can indicate something, which in this case is a strong democratic overperformance when compared to normal. This is supported by Real Clear Politics’ non-adjusted 2018 Generic Congressional Ballot Tracker which has Democrats +7.2 and FiveThirtyEight’s adjusted 2018 Generic Congressional Ballot Aggregator which has Democrats up by a very similar 7.3. Thus these projections assume Democrats are up by that amount and any further changes to these ratings will account for wherever the very useful Generic Congressional Ballot Poll is at the time. Thus, assuming a solidly pro-Democrat environment (bordering on wave), here are the ratings:
Safe D Seats (14):
- California: Dianne Feinstein
The long time incumbent is running for reelection and she’ll be tough to beat. By a Democrat. This is California, after all, where last year’s race for Barbara Boxer’s open seat jungle primary gave us a runoff of two Democrats. No legitimate Republican has filed and we don’t expect one too. This seat is safe even in a very pro-GOP cycle (Which this isn’t).
- Connecticut: Chris Murphy
Murphy, a potential 2020 candidate who’s been brave on the Trumpcare fight, won Joe Liberman’s open seat in 2012 by 12%. With no major Republican filing, a pro-D environment, a deep blue state, popular polling, and the incumbency advantage, this seat is safely blue.
- Delaware: Tom Carper
Delaware is another deep blue state and so far only businessman Chuck Boyce has declared candidacy. Whether or not Carper runs for re-election, it’s hard to see any GOPer winning this, let alone without a legitimate candidate so far.
- Hawaii: Mazie Hirono
Hawaii is, according to Cook PVI, the bluest state in the country at D+18. Hirono is only a first term, but who knows if Team Red will even contest this seat. She won it with 62% in 2012 when it was open. As an incumbent? This is as safe as it comes.
- Maine: Angus King
As I will note with Bernie, King is a member of the Democratic caucus and consistently votes with Team Blue, so for purpose of convenience, I’m putting him on our side. He’s the former governor and is, according to Morning Consult, the 8th most popular senator in the country, with a 62% approval rating. He won every county in Maine in his win in 2012. I struggle to see how King loses, especially with no serious competitor (so far, only one state senator has declared).
- Maryland: Ben Cardin
As we continue our list of deep blue coastal states, Maryland is next up. It is the fourth bluest state in the country and Cardin has won by double digits each of his first two terms. No real GOP candidate yet, and I don’t honestly expect one. This seat is safe.
- Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren
The Bay State is the fifth bluest state and while it did elect a red senator to this seat in 2010 (Scott Brown), that same red incumbent got drubbed by Warren by a margin of 7.5% in 2012. A few Republicans have declared but none are formidable. This is a state with an all-Blue congressional delegation and it will likely stay that way.
- Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar
Classically liberal haven Minnesota still hasn’t gone blue since 1972, though it came close with Trump. That being said, it’s still pretty blue. It has a blue governor and besides, Klobuchar is quite popular. Morning Consult has her with a 59% approval rating and she annihilated her last opponent in 2012 by 35%, winning 85 of Minnesota’s 87 counties in the process. She’s a 2020 name and so far it doesn’t appear that the Minnesota GOP will seriously challenge her, instead focusing on the Gubernatorial race.
- New Jersey: Bob Menendez
Here’s another deep blue state with two democratic senators that shows no signs of changing. Menendez is rather scandal ridden and not very popular but if he loses this seat, it will likely be to a fellow Democrat in a primary challenge. No sign this seat is flipping.
- New Mexico: Martin Heinrich
The days of George W. Bush winning this state in 2004 seem long gone. New Mexico continues to lurch leftward and Heinrich won this seat as an open one in 2012 by just under 6 points. With the incumbent advantage on his side and no formidable opponent in sight, this seat is safe.
- New York: Kirsten Gillibrand
Here’s the 6th bluest state in the country, one that went to Hillary Clinton by over 22%, even in what was a “good” GOP showing in the state. Gillibrand is a 2020 name and won each of her first two elections (a special in 2010 and the general in 2012) by over 20%. This seat is safe.
- Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse
It’s fitting that Rhode Island follows New York on this list because it also follows them on the list of bluest states, coming in at #7. A few GOPers have filed for this seat, but none of high caliber (one former state Supreme Court Justice and one state house member). Oh and Whitehouse one this seat with over 60% of the vote in 2012. This seat is going nowhere.
- Vermont: Bernie Sanders
I’m putting this in the blue category because while he’s not currently a Democrat, he’s part of the caucus and reliably votes with the party. Bernie is the most popular senator in the country with his constituents. And he won with over 70% in 2012. This seat is as safe as it comes and it wouldn’t shock me if it was uncontested.
- Washington: Maria Cantwell
Washington is a D+7 state that has become a reliably safe D haven. Cantwell will be seeking a fourth term in a seat she won with over 60% in 2012. In a pro-D environment, there is little doubt that this seat is safe for Team Blue.
Likely D Seats (4):
- Michigan: Debbie Stabenow
Stabenow will be seeking term #4 and hasn’t been seriously challenged since she knocked off incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000. Now that was partly due to lack of quality opponents (see: Hokestra, Pete) but that could be the same issue here. With most Republican big dogs running for governor, the only currently legitimate challenger is Supreme Court Justice Robert Young (who is like a Tier III) and maybe Kid Rock (?!?!?). Stabenow is a seasoned politician and this is still a D-leaning state that went to Trump for the first time since 1992 in 2016, but only by a tiny amount. I’d need to see polling to suggest she’s in any type of trouble.
- Virginia: Tim Kaine
Virginia was once a GOP state that keeps getting bluer. While the gubernatorial race this fall will give a good guess of where we’re at, it’s a state that has gone blue three straight elections, has a D+1 rating, and Tim Kaine is pretty popular. Oh and the most formidable challenger looks to be Corey Stewart (?!?!) or maybe Carly Fiorina. In a pro-Dem environment, I struggle to see how Kaine is in trouble
- Florida: Bill Nelson
Florida is normally the swing state to end all swing states, and it went to Trump by just 1.2% in 2012. Thus, you’d expect a Florida senate race to be close in theory. However, given a Pro-D national environment, we’d tilt it slightly to the Democrats. Even more so, is Bill Nelson, a strong incumbent. His job approval sits at 53% to just 25% disapproval and he has one each of his two reelections by double digits. No serious GOP candidate has declared but Governor Rick Scott is thinking about it. While governors normally make good senate candidates, Scott is not nearly as popular as Nelson in the state and Nelson has led every poll that has a matchup of him and Scott, receiving over 50 in each of the last two. Could this be competitive? Sure. But don’t bank on it. Nelson is a seasoned vet and a controversial governor doesn’t seem like the best opponent.
- Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr.
PA went to Trump by a tiny amount in 2016 (0.72%), but this state has normally been a rather safe state for Team Blue. Due to 2016, its PVI sits at EVEN, but I’d still rate it slightly left of center. Regardless, Bob Casey Jr. is a darn good politician. He’s won each of his two terms by over 9% and his name recognition in the state is very good. His approval numbers sit at only 46%, but disapproval is also only 31%. Perhaps the biggest factor is the dearth of seemingly legitimate candidates. A lot of names have jumped in, but no powerhouses. The PA GOP seems to be more interested in the governor race which has huge redistricting implications and if the final candidate remains a state legislator, combined with Casey’s incumbent advantages, and a pro-D environment, I put this state in the likely D category.
Lean D (4):
- Montana: Jon Tester
Tester entered the senate as part of the Blue Wave of 2006, beating scandal ridden incumbent Conrad Burns by a tiny margin. In 2012, Tester fended off Denny Rehberg by 4 points, a really impressive showing given that Rehberg was as good of a candidate as they come (former Lt. Governor and statewide house representative). If there’s any Democrat who was thrilled with Trump’s candidate, it was probably Tester. By naming Montana’s At-Large Representative Ryan Zinke Secretary of the Interior, Trump removed Tester’s only Tier I challenger. Three Republicans have declared so far, but none of high caliber so far and I struggle to see how the GOP comes up with an elite challenger, as their current best option is the State Auditor, a man who doesn’t scream Tier I. Meanwhile, the nationwide environment is shaping up to be better for Dems than it was in 2012, and Rob Quist’s 6 point loss in the special election to succeed Ryan Zinke should’ve been the best signal to Tester that he could be in the clear. Quist was a scandal ridden candidate facing off against a statewide and well funded name, and he still outperformed expectations (and Hillary) in the state. Tester on the other hand, has 50% approval, an incumbent advantage, a strong environment, $4.7 M cash-on-hand, two terms behind him, and no current elite opponent. Until that, or polling, changes, we have this race as a Lean D.
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown
Ohio has voted with the Presidential victor every time since 1964, and that includes in 2016, where the Buckeye State fell head over heels for DJT. His 8 point win signaled an 11 point shift from 2012. Thus, an Ohio senate seat would figure to be a good shot for the Republicans. That being said, Sherrod Brown is a solid candidate. The gritty blue collar Democrat smacked down incumbent Mike DeWine in the 2006 Blue Wave by 13 points, and then defended the seat by an even 6 points in 2012 over State Treasurer Josh Mandel. In 2018, his opponent will be, guess who? Josh Mandel. The young Republican has promised a re-match and I have reasons to be skeptical about how that will work out for the GOP. In 2012, the environment was mostly neutral, with a slight Democratic lean, and Brown simultaneously won by 6. Currently, the national environment figures to be strongly pro-Democrat. Somehow Mandel is going to change that? And Brown’s anti-free trade appeal overlaps strongly with Donald Trump’s base. His approval numbers via Morning Consult are a solid 50% to 29% disapproval. While the notoriously right leaning People’s Pundit Daily (PPD) put out two recent polls showing Brown trailing Mandel, PPD is not exactly the best pollster ever (they were decently accurate in 2016, but methods are sketchy and have not been evaluated by 538). Meanwhile, in 2016, the much more reputable Public Policy Polling (PPP) twice showed Brown up by double digits. Until a highly graded, well known pollster shows Brown in trouble or the national environment drastically shifts, put Brown in the Lean D category.
- West Virginia: Joe Manchin III
Few states have swung so violently to the right than West Virginia, whose days of being won by Bill Clinton in 1996 seem long gone. With a Cook PVI of R+20, it seems crazy that Democrats could have a senator there. Yet, West Virginia is one of the few states that still ticket splits and values local politics. While they hate national Dems, they love themselves some homeboy Democrats (see: Jim Justice, Earl Ray Tomblin, Jay Rockefeller, Bob Byrd). Luckily for Team Blue, Joe Manchin III happens to be a homeboy Democrat. And not just do West Virginians like Manchin, they LOVE him. His approval rating sits at 57% and in 2012, on the same day that Obama was losing WV by over 20, Manchin was winning reelection by 24%. He remains wildly popular and is a former governor. While he has formidable challengers in Evan Jenkins (WV-03) and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, he’s still Joe Freakin’ Manchin, and as of today, West Virginians love that. Harper Polling and the aforementioned notoriously right leaning People’s Pundit Daily sampled Manchin against five different GOP candidates including Morrisey and Jenkins (and the fabled “Generic Republican”), and in every poll, Manchin took at least 50% (51% against Jenkins and 57% against Morrisey). Yes, this is West Virginia, but yes, this is also Joe Manchin III. And that is going to be very hard for the GOP to beat.
- Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin
Wisconsin was much bluer than the nation as a whole in both 2008 and 2012, but then was redder than the nation as a whole in 2016, going to Trump by a margin of 0.77%. The PVI sits at EVEN and thus, a race in Wisconsin figures to be competitive. That being said, in a strongly pro-democratic national environment, we give the edge to Team Blue. Baldwin is liked, but not well liked, in Wisconsin and with the incumbent advantage, she is a clear favorite. Her 2012 win in an open seat was by a solid margin of 5.5% that doesn’t suggest she’s in much trouble. Oh and she has no major challenger yet. Rep. Sean Duffy (WI-07) was weighing a bid but decided to seek re-election for his moderately swingy seat, probably in part to right-leaning firm Magellan Strategies found him trailing Baldwin by 13 in a poll back in February. The Wisconsin GOP seems to be focusing their efforts on what figures to be another reelection attempt for Governor Scott Walker. Thus, given all of these advantages, and the limited polling against a decent hypothetical challenger, Baldwin is a clear favorite for reelection, making this a Lean D seat.
Tilt D (2):
- Indiana: Joe Donnelly
Donnelly is a rather centrist serving in a state that Obama narrowly won in 2008, but then lost by over 10 in 2012, followed by Clinton losing by 19 in 2016 to Trump. Donnelly got very lucky in 2012 due to two factors: first was the loss of longtime incumbent Dick Lugar in a primary to Tea Partier Richard Mourdock, followed by the implosion of Mourdock in the general election. While Mourdock didn’t collapse like Todd Akin (more on him later), his statement about “god intended rape” hurt his chances. How much did it hurt? It’s hard to say exactly, but the 5.7% that the Libertarian candidate received was likely at least half due to conservative voters who angrily voted to go 3rd party rather than vote for a Democrat in light of Mourdock’s comments. That said, Donnelly received over half the vote (50.04%) and I still think would’ve won even if Mourdock never made the comment (albeit probably by a much smaller margin). As for 2018, Donnelly has done his job to be a Democrat from a Red State. He’s pro-life, aligning with the religiosity of Indiana, has been tough on immigration, and favored the Keystone XL pipeline. While that may anger progressives, it’s what a Democrat needs to do to win in Indiana, and he’s decently popular, with Morning Consult putting him at 53% approval to just 25% disapproval, an 8% jump compared to 2016. Right now, with a sub 40% Trump approval rating and a 7 point Dem lead, we see Donnelly as a slight favorite. There are a few GOP names to challenge Donnelly but no major ones yet. He has the incumbent advantage, $3.7 M cash-on-hand (after raising $1.5 M in second quarter of 2017), and a good environment on his side. If a better challenger enters, or the environment changes, we will shift this rating, but right now, I see him as a slight favorite.
- North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp
North Dakota is an R+17 state which makes a Democratic Senator here rather surprising. And indeed, Heitkamp’s victory in 2012 was rather surprising, but rather similar to the aforementioned Manchin. On the same night where Obama lost North Dakota by nearly 20%, Heitkamp won a senate seat there with a narrow majority (50.2%). That suggests she won a large amount of crossover voters and has large local appeal, which she does. Morning Consult has her approval rating at a staggering 60% (the 11th most popular senator) to just 28% disapproval, numbers even better than Manchin. Heitkamp is a well known local name, serving as state Attorney General in the 90s and coming up short in a governor race in 2000, proving her appeal. Meanwhile, Republicans are coy about who to run in this seat which should be a top target. But it makes sense, for Heitkamp defeated a Tier I challenger (Rick Berg) for an open seat in a slightly Democratic year. If 2018 proves to be a stronger blue year (as it seems) and you give Heitkamp the incumbent advantage, plus a huge head start in fundraising ($1.3 M raised in 2Q for $3 M cash-on-hand), suddenly it becomes a much more daunting task. Statewide Representative Kevin Cramer is said to be considering, as is Berg for a potential rematch. North Dakota has no shortage of quality Republican options, but given that we are 6 months into Trump’s term and still little to no movement suggests a larger factor of fear about the realism of actually beating Heitkamp. Thus, until Heitkamp lands a legitimate challenger who polls well against her, we make her the favorite, though not a big one, given the state’s dark red nature and her narrow margin of victory in 2012.
Tossup (2):
- Missouri: Claire McCaskill
McCaskill was the state auditor when she challenged incumbent Jim Talent in R+9 Missouri, beating him by 2.3%, helped out by the nationwide wave. In 2012, she was given the break of the century when Todd Akin made his notorious “legitimate rape” comment, instantly killing his campaign. He went from leading nearly every summer poll to trailing all of the last polls and then losing by a whopping 15 points. Thus, it’s hard to know where McCaskill is really at, given that we were denied a proper data point in 2012. However, she does not have the massive appeal that Heitkamp and Manchin do, with a narrow +8 margin in Morning Consult’s poll (46-38 approval). Furthermore, right leaning Remington Research has McCaskill at -5 job approval and is trailing four potential opponents. However, her top potential challenger, Rep. Ann Wagner (MO-02) decided not to challenge McCaskill, an ominous sign for Team Red. Was her polling different? Maybe, but she may not want to take on a tough race in an unfavorable environment. For all her detractors, McCaskill is a damn good politician, and a superhuman fundraiser, bringing in $3.1 M in the second quarter for $5.1 M cash-on-hand. She’s got the incumbency, the cash, and the national environment on her side. But, is that enough to overcome the nature of the red state she’s in? We’ll find out, but first she has to land a tough challenger and Attorney General Josh Hawley may be the one (though he also wants to be on the Supreme Court (?!?!)). Regardless, there are reasons to believe that McCaskill will or will not win reelection, but for now, we’re leaving this race as a tossup.
- Nevada: Dean Heller
At long last, our first Team Red senator, and Heller may be the most endangered Republican senator in the country (though I’d argue Cory Gardner is #1). Nevada is a state that just keeps getting bluer, thanks in part to Harry Reid’s Latino Turnout Machine. Clinton won Nevada by 2.4% and on the same night, Nevada elected its other senator to be a Democrat (Catherine Cortez Masto) and elected both of its state legislature chambers as Democratic Majorities. In 2018, the state will have the ability to complete the trifecta and elect a second blue senator by defeating Heller. In Morning Consult’s poll, Heller had the fourth lowest approval rating (41%) and he faces a crucial vote on the Senate Healthcare bill. Nevada expanded Medicaid, and a vote to repeal those benefits could prove to be the killer for Heller. And even if he votes against Trumpcare, he could still very easily lose in a pro-Democratic environment and a D+1 PVI state. Oh and he has an elite challenger, Rep. Jacky Rosen (NV-03). PPP polled the race in late June and showed Rosen with a 42-41 lead, confirming everything we thought we knew: this will be a tight race and Heller will be fighting for his life.
Tilt R (1):
- Arizona: Jeff Flake
Arizona is a state that people keep thinking could go Blue but still hasn’t. That being said, it came within under 5 points of doing so in 2016. High Latino turnout and suburban Trump reluctance powered Clinton to a close finish. And in a much more strong pro-Democrat environment, we’d expect a state like Arizona to be close. And it very well could be, given that Jeff Flake is the most disliked senator in the country, with a -8 rating (37-45%) according to Morning Consult. As Harry Enten notes in this piece, Flake is much more vulnerable than most think. He won by just 3 points in 2012 against Richard Carmona, who is no one’s definition of a strong candidate. While Georiga’s shift leftward may be overstated, there are reasons to believe, as Enten notes, that Arizona’s shift is more real. Flake is very unpopular in the state and as a result of his dislike for Trump, he could be primaried by Kelli Ward and every poll taken of this race have Flake losing his primary. An open seat would be a boon to Democrats, though if Flake barely survives a divisive primary, that would be just as tasty to Team Blue. The only problem? So far, there is no legitimate candidate, and Democrats can’t afford that. But there’s still time, and as reported the other day, Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton is thinking about it. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09) has declined, but not decisively and seems to be leaving the door open, while fundraising like crazy. Both her and Stanton are what I would consider Tier I challengers and if either get in the race, it would instantly shift to a tossup.
Likely R (1):
- Texas: Ted Cruz
If you polled most Democrats what they wish for most in 2018 midterms, winning the senate thanks to Ted Cruz losing would be very close to the top. Is that realistic? Probably not. But Texas was won by Trump by just 9 points in 2016 in a year where the national environment was basically neutral. In a strongly pro-Democratic environment, who knows if this seat will be competitive. For what it’s worth, Dems have drafted a (in my opinion) very strong challenger, Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX-16). This Kennedy-esque Democrat (whose name happens to begin Robert Francis) has strong ties to the Latino community and turning out Hispanic voters in Harry Reid-like fashion will be essential to turning Texas blue. That said, it mostly hinges on Ted Cruz and his popularity (or lack thereof). Morning Consult has Cruz’s approval rating at a very solid 55%. That number will be hard to beat. UT Austin has his approval at 38% to just 44% approval. That number makes him beatable given the environment and the quality of challenger. Can Cruz be beaten, I’m more bullish on it than some, but I’d still put the chance at 10%, more pipe dream than reality. I need to see polling to make me believe it.
Safe R (5):
- Mississippi: Roger Wicker
Mississippi is an R+9 state and Wicker won by 10 even in a strongly pro-Democratic year. No serious Democratic challenger is expected, and with so many Democratic candidates to support in other states and only a finite amount of money, this seat is not likely to be legitimately contested by Team Blue.
- Nebraska: Deb Fischer
Fischer won Ben Nelson’s old seat in 2012 over ex-Senator Bob Kerrey by 15 points and she’s back to defend her seat in R+14 Nebraska. Again, the same problem facing the Democrats appears here in Nebraska, with not enough money to go around to fund a real challenger. Expect Fischer to cruise.
- Tennessee: Bob Corker
Corker first won this seat in 2006 by just 2 points over Harold Ford Jr., a surprisingly close race. But, given the wave that year, it was ultimately not terribly shocking. However, nowadays, Corker, who has not given the official signal about running, has an incumbent advantage should he choose to run. He won in a landslide in 2012, but he was also facing a candidate so bad that the Tennessee Democratic Party refused to acknowledge him. That said, the Democrats will probably have a better challenger in 2018, but probably not one who would have any shot of beating Corker, or his Republican replacement should he choose not to seek reelection.
- Utah: Orrin Hatch
Hatch has held this seat for 7 terms and despite being 83 years old, may seek another term. Whether or not he runs doesn’t really affect this rating. This is Utah after all, an R+20 state. If Hatch chooses not to run, then somebody, maybe even Mitt Romney, will run and hold this seat for Team Red. In short: it’s not going anywhere.
- Wyoming: John Barrasso
We’ve arrived at the reddest state of all, R+25 Wyoming. Barrasso won reelection in 2012 with a staggering 75.9% and it wouldn’t shock me if Dems don’t even run a candidate against him. This seat is as safe as Bernie Sanders’ Vermont seat.
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All in all, this is a really tough map for Democrats, but a strong showing with it could put Team Blue in a very strong position to regain a majority in 2020. With the unpopular Cory Gardner and Thom Tillis up, the possibility of Susan Collins vacating her seat for a governorship, the moderately popular first termers facing big Obamacare votes in Joni Ernst and Dan Sullivan, and the possibility of drafting good candidates in red states (Brad Henry in Oklahoma? Steve Bullock in Montana? Mitch Landrieu in Louisiana? Alex Beshear in Kentucky?), Democrats will have lots of chances to pick up seats in 2020 with only two real seats to defend (Gary Peters in Michigan and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire). Thus, the priority in 2018 needs to be defend all the held seats, try and pick up Flake and Heller and enter 2020 ready to win. Plus, the implications of a 50-50 senate or even a 51-49 one are pretty huge in 2019-20. If Kennedy retires and Trump tries to appoint a hardcore conservative, all the pressure suddenly falls on moderates and vulnerable senators. Will they cave and still appoint one anyway? Maybe, but they’d face the clear possibility of walking the plank.
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Feel free to leave comments to tell me your opinions on both my writing and my race ratings! Thanks!