On Friday, candidate filing closed for this fall's race to succeed termed-out New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. Eighteen different candidates filed to run, though only five look like they'll have the resources to make an impact. Former Judge Desiree Charbonnet and City Councilor LaToya Cantrell appear to be the early frontrunners, while ex-Judge Michael Bagneris, who lost to Landrieu in 2014, has also been running for some time.
Businessman Troy Henry, who lost to Landrieu four years before that, launched a late campaign on Friday, and rounding out the main contenders is rich guy Frank Scurlock, who operates a local bounce house empire, though it’s not clear just how serious his candidacy is. All of these contenders are Democrats, though in classic Louisiana party-switching fashion, Scurlock was a Republican as recently as April. Charbonnet, Cantrell, Bagneris, and Henry are all African-American, while Scurlock is white.
All the candidates will compete on one ballot on Oct. 14, and if no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a Nov. 18 general election, regardless of party. And there’s one programming note to be aware of: Mayoral elections in New Orleans have traditionally taken place in February, but because they kept coinciding with Mardi Gras season, they were recently bumped up, so the race that otherwise would have taken place in Feb. 2018 will now happen this October (as will future elections, every four years). However, Landrieu’s departure from office still won’t take place until May of next year, as originally scheduled, so the next mayor will have to wait an unusually long time before getting sworn in.
On Monday, fundraising numbers covering the period from April 8 to July 6, were due, giving us a good look at everyone's financial strength three months out from Election Day. While Charbonnet only entered the race in May, she quickly brought in a hefty $870,000, and she has $645,000 on-hand. As we noted when Charbonnet jumped in, she hails from a well-connected family, and she's close to plenty of political insiders. She’s also received national attention for her efforts on the bench to to steer repeat offenders in drug and prostitution cases, as well as offenders with mental illnesses, towards treatment programs rather than sending them back into the criminal justice system.
Cantrell, who represents about one-fifth of the city on the council, launched her campaign back in March. However, her $156,000 haul over the last three months was considerably smaller than Charbonnet’s, and she has just $193,000 in the bank. Cantrell may have also been hurt by the fact that state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who is both a close ally and the chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, started publically talking about running for mayor shortly before the filing deadline. Peterson ended up announcing that she'd stay out a few days later, but her public flirtation with a bid might have frozen up donations for Cantrell at the very end of fundraising period as donors waited to see what Carter would do.
Both Charbonnet and Cantrell are African-American Democratic women, and either would be the city’s first female mayor, but there are big differences between the two candidates. During her campaign kickoff, Charbonnet noted her family has “served the city for generations,” which may be a dig at Cantrell, who is originally from Los Angeles.
And while Charbonnet is close to political insiders, Cantrell, who rose to prominence for her work helping her neighborhood recover from Hurricane Katrina, won her council seat by defeating an opponent who was backed by both Landrieu and local Rep. Cedric Richmond. Cantrell has also earned attention from the national media. In 2015, Cantrell was the subject of an in-depth Politico Magazine profile titled "LaToya Cantrell, Madame Mayor?" that highlighted her post-Katrina work and her successful drive to ban smoking in bars and casinos.
Bagneris, meanwhile, lost to Landrieu 64-33 in 2014 in a pretty uneventful campaign, and it remains to be seen whether he can run a stronger effort this time around. From April to July, Bagneris raised $98,000 and loaned himself another $100,000, leaving him with $180,000. As for Henry, he ran back in 2010 for what was an open seat race to succeed the unpopular departing incumbent Ray Nagin, who is currently serving a prison sentence for corruption. Landrieu entered the race late and soon emerged as the frontrunner, but Henry stayed in the contest—to little avail. He loaned his campaign about $500,000 but lost 66-14.
Scurlock, relying on his personal wealth, loaned his campaign $626,000, and his $500,000 war chest is second only to Charbonnet's. Scurlock, who channels Trump with his campaign slogan of "Let's Make New Orleans Fun Again!," is no stranger to spending freely. Scurlock has, for instance, hired a pilot to write messages in the sky like "LOVE," "PRAY," and "JAZZ" during Mardi Gras and Jazzfest, explaining only, “We want to remind people it's better to be good."
It’s a message that Scurlock himself, however, has had some trouble following. In May, Scurlock was arrested for protesting against the removal of a statue of Jefferson Davis. Last week, the city upgraded the charge against him to assault; a video shows Scurlock arguing with a police officer, and, after being repeatedly told "don't walk up on me," getting arrested after defying the order to stay put. It's unlikely Scurlock has a chance of pulling off a win, but as the only well-funded white candidate and the only contender who opposed taking down New Orleans' former Confederate monuments, its possible he'll take enough support in the primary to advance.
But while the removal of those monuments generated high-profile media coverage and some intense anger (as well as a remarkable speech by Landrieu), the city’s high crime rate—always a perennial election issue—is likely to dominate once again. Race also tends to play a significant role in New Orleans politics. In several past mayoral races, two African American candidates have advanced to the runoff, making New Orleans' white voters the critical swing bloc. The last time this happened was in 2002, three years before Hurricane Katrina, when Nagin, a former Republican, took an estimated 85 percent of white voters while losing predominantly black areas to win his first term 59-41.
It’s still early to say how things will unfold, though. Elections in Louisiana tend to be late-developing affairs, so even though three months might seem like a relatively short window, there’s still a lot of time for this contest in America’s 50th-largest city to take shape.
