Gerrymandering is a real problem. It is anti-democratic in nature. It represents candidates choosing their voters instead of the other way around. Currently 90% of all House seats are considered virtually impossible to flip to the other party. We can thank Gerrymandering for that.
Gerrymandering is responsible for the GOP’s over-representation in Congress. Gerrymandering is also why my state of Wisconsin is locked into a GOP majority in the state assembly. Wisconsin has been a “purple” state for a long time. The voters are still purple, but the Gerrymandering is all painted in red.
The fact is there’s always some form of bias in drawing up district lines. But in the last decade or so the Gerrymandering has been increased to the utmost possibility. We are paying the price for this right now in the form of the current inept (at best) all-GOP [cough] government.
But there’s one big fat globular cause for hope in this situation. For you see Gerrymandering is a two-edged sword. The extreme Gerrymandering we see today has an inherent weakness that just might destroy the GOP majority essentially overnight.
Here is the math.
The GOP has used Gerrymandering to seize as many seats as possible. This means they have drawn up GOP majorities are in most districts. This leaves the Democrats with a few districts in which the DEMS have super-powerful voting majorities .. 65%, 70%… big majorities.
That leaves the GOP with many more districts, but with slim majorities in many of them. This simply has to be true when a party goes to extremes in Gerrymandering. They go for small majorities in many districts. They cannot get big majorities in many districts because they have to, by definition, spread out their voters thinly into many different districts.
So what’s the point here?
The point is this arrangement of many small majorities can all collapse at once if the GOP suffers a major loss of support. If/when that happens the GOP can lose their majorities in scores of districts. Like a house of cards a strong breeze can pull down the whole edifice.
I suggest to you the actions and crimes of this current administration, the ruthless obsession of taking away health care from Americans, and the possible use of the word “treason” in legal earnest might well spark a few million epiphanies before the midterms. The GOP looks like an unshakable monolith, but it is not. It is a false majority propped up by extreme Gerrymandering.
The message here is to look to the midterms as a change to blow down Paul Ryan’s House of Cards. 2018 offers more potential than just hope to win back the Senate. It is a chance to blow the GOP down and out for years.
PS: Knee-jerk despair will be mocked Fairly warned.