The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● Netroots Nation: This morning at 10:30 AM ET at Netroots Nation in Atlanta, the editors of Daily Kos Elections will host an in-depth Q&A session covering the 2017 special elections, this November's general elections, the 2018 midterm landscape, and everything in between. There will be no speeches or presentations: just your questions (and our answers) on any race in the nation you care about.
A livestream of our panel will be available at facebook.com/NetrootsNation/, and we'll be taking questions from both our in-person and online audiences. If you're watching the livestream, please tweet your questions to @DKElections. You can also RSVP for the event here. We look forward to seeing you—and hearing from you!
Senate
● AL-Sen: With less than a week to go until next week's Senate special election GOP primary in Alabama, appointed Sen. Luther Strange is calling out the big guns. Donald Trump himself issued an endorsement of Strange via Twitter on Tuesday evening, stating that "Senator Luther Strange has done a great job representing the people of the Great State of Alabama." Strange already has benefitted immensely from the steadfast backing of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and heavy spending from McConnell's allied super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund.
Meanwhile, Rep. Mo Brooks, whom recent polls have shown failing to make the runoff after next Tuesday's primary, feebly argued that "Mitch McConnell and the swamp somehow misled the president into endorsing Luther Strange." Both candidates have done their best to bear hug Trump in this contest, with Strange and his allies repeatedly hammering Brooks over opposing Trump in last year's presidential primary. Indeed, Brooks newest ad blasts "swamp king" McConnell for spending millions to help his "lapdog, Luther Strange, hijack our Alabama primary." Brooks then touts his conservatism and record of strongly supporting Trump before lambasting McConnell's failure to repeal Obamacare.
● IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Todd Rokita finally made his long-anticipated Senate campaign official when he declared on Wednesday that he would seek the GOP nomination to face Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. Rokita has represented Indiana's dark-red 4th Congressional District, located west of Indianapolis, since his initial 2010 victory, and he previously served two terms as Indiana secretary of state. The congressman has already been fundraising like a candidate about to run a competitive race after he raised a hefty $1 million from April through June and finished that three-month period with an auspicious $2.4 million in cash-on-hand.
Rokita's entry into the race sets up a battle royale primary with fellow Republican Rep. Luke Messer, and both candidates have already been slinging mud at each other for a while. Rokita has been criticizing Messer's wife, Jennifer Messer, for making $20,000 a month doing legal work for the Indianapolis suburb of Fishers (population: 90,000), arguing that the Messers are profiting from their political connections.
Rokita has also accused Messer of not actually living in Indiana, to which Messer responded by accusing Rokita of spreading lies about him and his family for months. Back in May, Rokita alleged that Messer planted a story in Politico that reported how Rokita had used $100,000 in campaign funds on a private plane, which looked somewhat unseemly despite not violating ethics rules.
When Messer joined the race in late July, Rokita released a GS Strategy Group poll that gave him a 28-20 lead, while Messer's team had previously shown a survey that had them tied 23-23, demonstrating that this primary is still wide open. State Rep. Mike Braun also recently joined the Republican primary, but he's likely starting with much lower name recognition than the two congressmen. However, the wealthy businessman did say he was willing to self-fund enough to run a competitive race. Braun's best bet may be if Rokita and Messer end up nuking each other into mutual destruction, allowing him to prevail over the split field.
Indiana is likely one of the best chances Republicans have to gain a Senate seat next year thanks to Trump's dominant 56-37 victory in the Hoosier State, and the GOP contestants are understandably willing to go all-out to secure the nomination. However, Donnelly won't mind it a bit if Messer and Rokita spend the next several months bludgeoning each other while the incumbent builds up his war chest.
● TN-Sen, TN-06: Republican state Sen. Mark Green had been mentioned as a possible candidate for federal office for some time, but on Wednesday he announced that he would not run for Senate, the open 6th District, or any other higher office next year. Green had been running for governor earlier this year until Trump picked him to become Army secretary, but his nomination imploded over past bigoted statements that Green had made about Muslims and LGBTQ people. That incident likely wouldn't have been a negative in a state where a large proportion of GOP primary voters are religious conservatives, but Green ultimately has chosen to stay put in the legislature.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Connecticut state Senate Minority Leader Len Fasano previously hadn't ruled out running in the GOP primary for governor next year, but he declared on Wednesday that he would not be joining the crowded contest. Fasano's decision to opt out of the race could be a boon to his counterpart in the other chamber, state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, who is still considering whether to launch a campaign of her own. However, several other noteworthy candidates are already running in the Republican primary.
● MD-Gov: Krish Vignarajah, a former policy director for ex-First Lady Michelle Obama, is the latest Democrat to launch a campaign to take on Republican Gov. Larry Hogan next year. Vignarajah doesn't appear to have run for office before, but her connections to the Obama world could help her with fundraising.
Hogan's ostensible advantages don't appear to have dissuaded Maryland Democrats, judging by the size of the primary field competing for the nomination to oppose him. Vignarajah joins a primary that includes Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, state Sen. Richard Madaleno, well-connected attorney Jim Shea, and tech entrepreneur Alec Ross.
● VA-Gov, VA State House: Quinnipiac recently returned to poll the Old Dominion, and their latest survey has good news for Team Blue in this fall's state races. Democrat Ralph Northam beats Republican Ed Gillespie by 44-38 for governor, which is relatively similar to Quinnipiac's June poll, which gave Northam a 47-39 lead. Two factors that are likely bolstering Northam are term-limited Democratic Gov. Terry Mcauliffe's popularity, with 47 percent approving and just 37 percent disapproving, and the poll respondents' utter dislike of Donald Trump, who has an abysmal 36 approval rating with 61 percent disapproving.
This survey adds to just a handful of other polls since the June 13 primary, which have ranged from a tied race to a similar Northam lead. While Northam might seem like a slight favorite at the moment, there are still three months to go until Election Day, and he can't take anything for granted. Indeed, even this Quinnipiac survey revealed 39 percent of voters had yet to form an opinion of either Northam or Gillespie, giving both candidates the opportunity to negatively define their foe.
On a final note, Quinnipiac found voters prefer a Democratic-run state legislature to a GOP one by a 49-38 margin. While Democrats are facing a brutal Republican gerrymander that left Team Blue with just 34 of 100 state House seats, these numbers could portend major Democratic gains this November when the entire state House is up.
House
● IL-14: On Wednesday, Democrat Lauren Underwood, a nurse who served as a senior adviser at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services during the Obama presidency, announced that she would challenge GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren. Democratic mapmakers drew up this seat, which includes Chicago's western exurbs, to quarantine hostile Republican voters. However, it swung from 54-44 Romney to just 49-45 Trump, and it's become more enticing to Democrats this year.
Underwood won't have the primary to herself. Matt Brolley, the president of the village of Montgomery and a member of the board of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, jumped into the race in late June with the support of neighboring Rep. Bill Foster. Navy veteran Victor Swanson, the brother of comedian Andy Richter, is also running, but Swanson hasn't raised much money so far. This seat is located in the expensive Chicago media market, and the Democratic nominee will need a lot of resources to win on what is still hostile turf.
● IN-04: Rep. Todd Rokita has sounded incredibly likely to run for the Senate for months, so local Republicans have had plenty of time to consider a House bid. Indiana's 4th District, which includes Kokomo, Lafayette, and Indianapolis' western suburbs, backed Trump 64-30, so all the action should be in the GOP primary. Even Richard Mourdock, Team Red's disastrous 2012 Senate nominee, won the 4th 49-44 as he was losing statewide 50-44.
Back in late June, the local political newsletter Howey Politics reported that Diego Morales, who worked as an aide to Mike Pence when he was governor, was considering. GOP sources also told Howey that state Rep. Heath VanNatter, Workforce Development Director Steve Braun, and state Sen. Brandt Hershman were also eyeing this race. IndyPolitics recently also name-dropped state Sen. John Crane, Army veteran Jared Thomas, Indianapolis Power & Light lobbyist Fred Mills, and Hendricks County Council Member Eric Wathen, but it's not clear how interested any of them are.
● KS-02: Democrat Paul Davis, who lost a tight race to GOP Gov. Sam Brownback in 2014, has been exploring a bid for this open seat for a while, and he will announce his plans on Aug. 15. This district, which includes Topeka, backed Trump 56-37, though Davis pulled off a 51-45 win here for governor in 2014.
● MA-03: On Wednesday, Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas announced that she would not seek re-election in Massachusetts’ 3rd Congressional District, a seat that backed Obama 57-41 and Clinton 58-35. This district, which includes Lawrence, Lowell, and a portion of central Massachusetts, is usually reliably Democratic, though it's been open to backing Republicans down-ballot.
In 2012, as Elizabeth Warren was unseating GOP Sen. Scott Brown 54-46, she lost the 3rd 51-49. In the special election for Massachusetts' other Senate seat the next year, Democrat Ed Markey also narrowly lost the seat 51-49 as he was winning statewide 55-45. In 2014, Republican Charlie Baker also carried this district 52-43 as he was winning the governorship 48-47.
But after winning a special election to replace ex-Rep. Marty Meehan by a relatively tight 51-45 margin in 2007, Tsongas herself has always won re-election by double digits, and Republicans will have a very tough time winning here if Trump remains a drag on his party next year. But with the GOP’s recent strength in Senate and gubernatorial races in this district, it's possible Republicans will field a stronger-than-usual candidate.
Unsurprisingly, it took very little time for several Democrats to express interest, and we could see something like a reunion tour of runners-up in the 2007 special election primary that Tsongas won. State Sen. Eileen Donoghue told the Boston Herald she hasn't decided what to do, though she added, "Being in the Senate and being part of Senate leadership has also been tremendous. I absolutely love what I do." In 2007, Tsongas beat Donoghue 36-31 in the primary.
Ex-state Sen. Barry Finegold, who lost the 2014 primary for state treasurer, also put out a statement saying he was considering. Unnamed insiders also tell the Boston Globe’s Joshua Miller that they think state Sen. Jamie Eldridge, who was a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter during the 2016 presidential campaign, is interested. In the 2007 primary, Eldridge and Finegold took third and fourth place with 14 and 13 percent, respectively.
However, there are also Democrats who did not run in 2007 who could get in. State Sen. Barbara L’Italien says she's "eagerly exploring," while Michael Gallagher, a prominent Lowell attorney who co-chaired Tsongas’ campaign finance committee, also acknowledged his interest.
Steve Kerrigan, who was the Democrats’ 2014 nominee for lieutenant governor (in Massachusetts, governor and lieutenant governor candidates run in separate primaries, and the two nominees win or lose together as a ticket), didn't rule it out, saying that he thinks "a lot people are going to have a lot of conversations with their families and friends the next few days" and that "decisions will get made over the next few weeks. I look forward to seeing what comes of that." Kerrigan served as political director to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, and he was CEO of Obama's second inauguration. Last year, Kerrigan narrowly lost a race for state party chair.
There are plenty of other Democrats who could get in as well. The Globe‘s Miller reports that state Rep. Jennifer Benson is considering, though she hasn't said anything publicly. Lawrence Mayor Daniel Rivera, who is up for re-election this year, "has been floated as a candidate," but it's unclear how interested he is. Daniel Koh, the chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, has talked about running for office someday, and his name immediately came up. Koh, who is a native of Andover in the 3rd District, has not said anything yet, and a Boston city spokesperson declined to comment.
On the GOP side, no one has expressed interest yet, but Miller (who was very busy playing Great Mentioner on Wednesday) flags two Republicans whom he describes as prominent potential candidates. Rick Green, the wealthy owner and co-founder of an auto parts company, is also the founder of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, a conservative advocacy group. Green considered challenging Warren for re-election earlier this cycle but passed. Miller also says that Gardner Mayor Mark Hawke is "seen as a serious contender if he were to enter the race." They also say that state Rep. Sheila Harrington's name has been floated.
● MN-01: GOP state Sen. Carla Nelson has been considering a bid for this open southern Minnesota House seat for a while, and the local Minnesota tipsheet Morning Take writes that we should expect a decision from her in early fall. Sources close to Nelson say she's being encouraged by national Republicans to run, but therein lies a problem, because she's also being encouraged by state Republicans to stay put. Why?
Minnesota Republicans hold a one-seat majority in the state Senate, and Nelson’s seat remains swingy, shifting from 50-47 Obama to 46-45 Trump. Understandably, Senate Republicans don't want to risk losing control of the chamber before the Senate is next up in 2020, since a victory in next year's gubernatorial race could give them unified control of state government for the first time in many decades. Nelson has also talked about running for governor, though it's unclear how interested she is in entering that crowded race.
If Nelson does run for Congress, she may face a familiar foe. Rich Wright, who served in the Army Reserves as a Judge Advocate General, has jumped in the race for the Democratic nod. Wright lost to Nelson 56-44 last year, two years after he lost a bid for state House by double digits. Minnesota's 1st District swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump.
● NJ-11: A few days ago, Woodland Park Mayor Keith Kazmark formed an exploratory committee ahead of a possible bid against longtime GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Kazmark recently told The Observer that he expects to decide if he'll enter the Democratic primary around Thanksgiving.
● OH-16: The Cleveland Plain-Dealer reports that Anthony Gonzalez, a former football player at Ohio State and for the Indianapolis Colts, is talking to the NRCC about a possible bid for this reliably red open seat. Gonzalez has not said anything publicly yet, but an unnamed source close to him says that he's close to deciding.
Gonzalez had a well-regarded football career at Ohio State, and he was named an Academic All-American. After Gonzalez left the Colts, he went on to serve as chief operating officer for an education technology company in San Francisco before recently moving back to Ohio. GOP state Reps. Christina Hagan and Tom Patton are already running, and Gonzalez could contrast well against them in a primary. This seat, which includes part of the Akron, Canton, and Cleveland areas, went from 53-45 Romney to 56-39 Trump.
● PA-01: Nonprofit director Omar Woodard had previously said he was thinking about challenging embattled Rep. Bob Brady in next year's Democratic primary, and the National Journal recently reported that Woodard says he’l decide in the next few weeks whether to run. Woodard appears to be well-connected in the world of Philadelphia Democratic politics, having previously worked for the Obama campaign and for a prominent local state senator.
Brady has long been the machine-style "boss" of Philadelphia Democratic politics, having chaired the local party since 1986 and representing the 1st Congressional District since 1998. However, the incumbent has faced unforgiving headlines in recent weeks after federal prosecutors reached a plea agreement in late July with a former staffer to Brady's 2012 primary opponent; that staffer, Carolyn Cavaness, admitted to illegally funnelling $90,000 from Brady's campaign to Brady's opponent in order to get the latter to drop out, which he did.
While Brady doesn't face any charges yet, it could be just a matter of time before he runs into legal problems of his own. Even if a potential case against him takes many more months to unfold, the scandal could nonetheless open up Brady to defeat if Woodard or another candidate can run a strong race against him. This district is dark-blue at 80-18 Clinton, meaning whichever Democrat wins the primary should almost certainly win the general election.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso brings us up to speed on the results of three Midwestern specials:
Iowa HD-82: Democrats held onto this seat, with Phil Miller defeating Republican Travis Harris 54-44. Libertarian Joshua Miller and independent Edward Hee III each received 1 percent of the vote. This seat swung heavily to the Republicans in 2016, voting for Donald Trump by a 58-37 margin in 2016 after backing Barack Obama 50-48 in 2012.
Missouri SD-28: This was an easy Republican hold; Sandy Crawford defeated Democrat Al Skalicky by a 68-32 margin. Daily Kos Elections’ preliminary results have Trump winning this district 76-20, while Mitt Romney carried it 68-30 in 2012.
Missouri HD-50: This one ended up being close; Republican Sara Walsh defeated Democrat Michela Skelton by just 52-48 to keep this seat in her party's hands. Daily Kos Elections’ preliminary results have Trump winning this district 58-37, while Romney took it 60-38 in 2012.
The Iowa win is quite heartening to Democrats. So far, the GOP has picked up just one legislative seat anywhere in a Trump-era special election, and that was in a conservative Louisiana state House seat where Democrats didn't field a candidate. The GOP currently holds a 59-41 majority in the Iowa House, and if Democrats want to take the chamber, they'll need to win plenty of seats that swung from Obama to Trump. Miller's win on Tuesday is a strong sign that those kinds of must-win seats aren't out of reach without a Democratic incumbent on the ballot.
Mayoral
● Detroit, MI Mayor: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan faces a challenge from state Sen. Coleman Young II this November, but if Tuesday's nonpartisan primary results are any indication, there won't be much to see. Duggan took 68 percent of the vote while Young, a fellow Democrat whose father served from 1974 to 1994 as Detroit’s first black mayor, was a distant second with 27 percent.
