Ron Brownstein/CNN:
Trump gambles on cultural frustration over economic self-interest
In
Quinnipiac University polling this year, blue-collar whites and seniors (of all races) were more likely than Americans overall to support Trump's original travel ban on Muslim-majority nations, his plan to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, and deportation of undocumented immigrants who have not committed a serious crime. The nonpartisan
Public Religion Research Institute has found that, compared to the public overall, both groups were much more likely to say the police are not unfair to African-Americans, and the blue-collar whites were more likely to say transgender people should be required to use bathrooms that correspond with their gender at birth.
But with Trump still receiving very low marks from minority voters, and facing historically low ratings for a Republican president among white-collar whites, he can afford hardly any defection from the blue-collar and older whites that have been his staunchest supporters. And, even with increasingly unvarnished appeals to cultural anxiety, that may be exactly what Trump is courting by renouncing his campaign pledges to defend the safety net programs that now support so many of his own voters.
Trump’s base is blue collar/older/evangelical whites. That’s all he has. And he will do anything to keep them (short of governing responsibly and actually helping them). That’s why Jeff Sessions is still there.
Eliot A Cohen/Atlantic:
The Downsides of John Kelly's Ascension
It's not a signal that the president is preparing to moderate his White House—it's a signal he's going to the mattresses.
As the coils of the Russia investigation grow tighter, as his failures in Congress mount, Trump reaches for what he knows—demagoguery of the rawest sort. He reaches as well for what he thinks of as his base, which includes (he believes) the military, many of whose leaders are actually quietly appalled by what he represents. He has picked Kelly not because of his political or administrative skills but because he thinks of him as a “killer”—a term of praise in his lexicon, which is why he likes referring to his secretary of defense as “Mad Dog” Mattis, a nickname the former general rejects. Kelly will not organize Goon Squads for Trump, but the president would probably not mind if he did. More to the point, Kelly’s selection, and that of a foul-mouthed financier from New York as Trump’s communications director, tells us not that Trump is planning on moderating his behavior, but rather on going to the mattresses. He just may have picked the wrong guy for that mission, that’s all.
Want to see an example of cultural anxiety » economic anxiety?
Alex Shephard/TNR:
Trump Wants a Culture War. Are Democrats Ready to Fight Back?
In the same week that Democrats dropped their “Better Deal” economic agenda, Trump made it clear he’s banking on cultural issues.
Trump’s play here is fairly straightforward. With a favorability rating in the mid-30s, Trump needs his base more than ever. His recent moves are chum for both religious conservatives and voters who rated immigration as their most important issue in 2016, both of whom broke for Trump. Yes, Trump won Democratic-leaning voters with an economic message of preserving the social safety net and upending job-stealing global trade agreements. But to a large extent “Make America Great Again” was a cultural message disguised as an economic one—an air raid siren, rather than a dog whistle, to voters who feared an increasingly diverse country.
Michael Tomasky/Daily Beast:
No More Excuses: The GOP Owns Obamacare Now
Voters know that what the Republicans are doing is crazy because what’s wrong with Obamacare is so easy to fix.
The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel tweeted an interesting quote along these lines from Rand Paul a few days ago:
You see what Paul is saying there. “It’s the fault of Obamacare.” That’s going to be the line.
It’ll work with their hard-shell voters. There’s a certain percentage of people for whom all you have to do is say “Obama” and their brains explode. But that’s not a very big percentage now, and it’ll be even smaller by November 2018 as memories fade (this is why it was smart for Obama not to interject himself in the health-care debate and why he should for the most part hang back until after the midterms; don’t make it at all about him, make it about Trump)
Jennifer Rubin/WaPo:
Does the GOP deserve to survive?
First, keep in mind the distinction between “should” (normative) vs. can (capacity). The former (should the GOP survive) goes to the moral culpability of those who lifted Trump to power and kept him there. They elevated a very dangerous man who has done and continues to do great damage to our country. They’ve in essence lost legitimacy as a constructive force; the center-right cannot fully purge the stain of Trump unless it sheds (or shreds) the skin of the GOP. Given the enormity of the GOP’s malfeasance, a new party may in fact be required.
Then there is the more practical question (can the GOP survive). Given how toxic the GOP brand has become, the time and cost of rehabilitating the brand may not be worth it. Alternatively, anti-Trump Republicans might conclude that the financial, legal and organizational burden of creating a new party with new state parties may be crippling.
This one was from Feb by a smart political scientist, click and read the thread:
More pushback of that kind, from Jeff Flake in Politico, not to be dismissed. This puts him at electoral risk:
My Party Is in Denial About Donald Trump
We created him, and now we're rationalizing him. When will it stop?
Not just another ‘both sides’ piece. This is sharp criticism and puts Flake at risk.
Politico:
The Blue Dog map is changing. It may even help Democrats win Republican districts
But in the wake of the 2016 election, Blue Dogs have rediscovered their bark — and are clamoring for a larger voice in the Democratic Party. Right now, less than 10 percent of House Democrats are Blue Dogs — but they’re an increasingly important minority in conservative areas of the country where Democrats have lost ground. They might even help Democrats regain a House majority in 2018.
For me, the best electable Democrat still works.
Daniel Drezner/WaPo:
Why is Trump so bad at strategy? It’s time for some game theory! No, really …
To Trump’s supporters, this kind of conviction [I can do anything even when I can’t] is a feature, not a bug. One American Greatness blogger looked at the past week of political fiascoes for Trump and… celebrated:
Trump is slaying sacred cows and, in the words of American Greatness Senior Editor Julie Ponzi, he is killing the gods of the city and no one knows what to do. The only thing anybody knows is that the things we are seeing have never been done before and Donald Trump is refusing to follow any of the proper conventions (if he even knows what they are . . . tsk tsk)….
Think of the glory of it all. This is the fight we have been waiting for. This is the turmoil we need.
The president is making common sense policy decisions that don’t need the backing of long reports authored by “experts” (backing that he wouldn’t have received, by the way). It is almost as if he thinks the people should rule, not supposed expertise. Kind of neat, huh? This will undoubtedly result in pushback from bureaucrats and “experts,” and timid culture warriors who apparently enjoy self-emasculation or have realized (incorrectly) that they have more to gain from maintaining the status quo.
I would suggest that: a) the people do not seem as fond of Trump as the this writer thinks; b) celebrating “disruption” is the last refuge of the political charlatan; and c) this all sounds great right up to the moment when it turns out the expert is right and the president’s “common sense” is grounded in self-aggrandizing delusion rather than reality.
Google “Pangloss”.
David Leonhardt/NY Times:
The Americans Who Saved Health Insurance
Jessi Bohon isn’t a political activist. She is a teacher in central Tennessee who grew up poor in rural Virginia. But President Trump’s victory led her to join a grass-roots group called Indivisible, which encouraged people to attend town hall meetings on health care...
Bohon was one of thousands of citizens who took time to attend meetings, visit congressional offices and call those offices, often repeatedly. This sustained action worked better than any poll to show Congress how unpopular the bills were. It was a reminder of how democracy can work.
White people, read this: