The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● AK-Gov: After keeping us guessing all year, Alaska Gov. Bill Walker and his lieutenant governor, Byron Mallot, announced on Monday that they'd seek re-election, and will once again run on an independent ticket. Three years ago, Walker initially sought to challenge then-Gov. Sean Parnell in the Republican primary but changed gears and decided to campaign as an independent. Mallot was the Democratic nominee for governor, but polling indicated that he and Walker were splitting the vote and would allow Parnell to win with relative ease.
Campaign Action
So in a rare—and ultimately successful—gambit, Mallot dropped his bid and joined Walker as his running-mate. The state Democratic Party formally backed the twosome, and with no actual Democratic candidate on the ballot, Walker defeated Parnell 48-46. To repeat the feat, Walker and Mallot will almost certainly need Democrats to stand down once again, but it's not clear whether that will happen.
The executive director of the state party offered some mild praise for both men but declined to endorse them in the wake of their announcement, and it's still possible someone will file to run as a Democrat. The biggest name out there belongs to former Sen. Mark Begich, who hasn't ruled out the race, and local news station KTUU adds that state Sen. Bill Wielechowski could go for it if Begich declines.
If someone does claim the Democratic nomination, it's hard to see how Walker can prevail again, especially in a state as red as Alaska, though at least this time he would have the advantage of incumbency. However, it's possible that this could all be a bit of kabuki: In order to win, Walker needs the votes of a considerable number of right-leaning independents and Republicans (and his ability to win them over is why Mallot joined his ticket rather than the other way around), so it may be that both he and the Democrats want to keep each other at arm's distance for as long as possible.
Republicans, meanwhile, have yet to field a single candidate, though state Sen. Mike Dunleavy filed to create an exploratory committee last month, and several others are considering. One such potential candidate, former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman, now says he won't decide until after Labor Day, but the rest of the maybes haven't set any timetables.
Gubernatorial
● MN-Gov: Minnesota's crowded GOP primary for governor just got crowded-er this week, with the entry of state Sen. David Osmek. Osmek is a second-term legislator who fancies himself a bit of a Trumpling: He once sneered at a citizen who asked him to support a light rail project that the idea was a "liberal wet dream." (Believe it or not, hatred of light rail has long been an obsession of crazypants Minnesota conservatives.) But, notes the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Osmek has also been known to compromise at times, even supporting a local sales tax increase, so we'll see if he can actually replicate Trump's burn-it-down bluster.
Four other major Republicans are already running for this open seat: Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, former state party chair Keith Downey, and state Rep. Matt Dean. Democrats likewise have a jam-packed field, with no fewer than six credible contenders in the race.
● VA-Gov: Roanoke College's first poll of Virginia's gubernatorial race this fall finds Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie 43-36, a margin that's similar to recent surveys from other institutions. Unfortunately, though, Roanoke's track record is poor: In 2014, when Gillespie came within a point of unseating Sen. Mark Warner, Roanoke's final poll found Warner up by 12. Every public pollster badly whiffed on that race, but more infamously, Roanoke put Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama 49-44 in 2012, when Obama went on to win Virginia by 4 points—a contest most pollsters called correctly. They also predicted Republican George Allen would win that year's open seat Senate race by 5, even though he lost to Tim Kaine by 6.
Roanoke did a little better last year, figuring Hillary Clinton for a 9-point victory (she carried the Old Dominion by 5), but they're still not an outfit we can put a lot of trust in. However, even when you don't feel confident in a survey's toplines, the trendlines—that is, the change from one poll to the next—can still be useful. In this case, they tell us that Donald Trump has managed to get even more unpopular in Virginia: Back in February, Trump had a 32-50 job approval rating, and now it's 28-57. By contrast, outgoing Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has a 49-30 approval score, a divide we've seen in other polls as well.
● WI-Gov: At this point, if Scott Walker doesn't decide to seek a third term as governor, it would be a huge shock … but yet he still hasn't formally declared whether he will. Walker intends to keep jerking us around a while longer: He now says that he'll make an announcement in "about" a month or two. Walker previously said he was waiting until Wisconsin's budget was passed (it hasn't), but he didn't appear to reiterate that deadline in speaking with the Associated Press' Scott Bauer, so we don't know if that's still the purported cause of his delay.
House
● CO-07: State Sen. Andy Kerr, one of four notable Democrats who'd been running for Colorado's 7th District until Rep. Ed Perlmutter unexpectedly declared on Monday that he'd seek re-election next year, has now dropped out and thrown his support to the incumbent. Kerr's move follows quick departures by two other Democrats, state Sen. Dominick Moreno and state Rep. Brittany Petterson, who immediately quit the race and endorsed Perlmutter after the congressman made his announcement.
The one remaining obstacle for Perlmutter is diplomat Dan Baer, who served as Barack Obama's ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Baer hasn't yet announced his plans, but if he stays in, he'd have a very hard time winning. Perlmutter appears to be very well-liked among Colorado Democrats (especially if the reactions of Kerr, Moreno, and Petterson are anything to go by), so it's difficult to imagine what kind of message Baer might even run on, or who he'd raise money from. Baer is just 40 years old, so the wiser choice here is to fight another day.
● TX-16: El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar, who has been considering a bid for Texas' open 16th Congressional District for a couple of months, will apparently announce a campaign at an event this Saturday. That would make her the first Democrat to formally announce for this seat, though she'll have to step down from the bench in order to do so. Escobar has the support of the Latino Victory Project, a group founded by actress and activist Eva Longoria, which had urged her to run.
Only one other notable Democrat is considering the race, El Paso school board chair Dori Fenenbock, who created what she termed an exploratory committee back in the spring. But Fenenbock definitely looks like an actual candidate, seeing as she raised $350,000 in the second quarter of the year, which is not the kind of sum someone merely puttering around hauls in. The 16th, which is located in El Paso in the far southwestern corner of the state, voted 68-27 for Hillary Clinton. The district is open because Rep. Beto O'Rourke is running for the Senate against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
Grab Bag
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation comes to Kansas, a solidly red state where the GOP has huge majorities in the legislature but where moderate Republicans have been regaining influence. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new data sets; you can also find all of our calculations from 2016 and past cycles here.
Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Kansas legislature for decades, and that's unlikely to change anytime soon. In November, the GOP won a massive 31-to-nine Senate majority, with Democrats netting one seat. Team Blue netted 12 House seats last year, but Team Red still holds a strong 85-40 edge. But below the surface, GOP Gov. Sam Brownback and his conservative allies took a major hit last year.
The Kansas Republican Party has seen decades of infighting between its moderate and conservative wings, and until recently, the conservatives were on the upswing. But Brownback's disastrous tax cuts have devastated the state economy and breathed new life into the moderates. Last year, moderate Republicans channeled voter disgust over education funding and the state's budget problems and unseated several conservative legislators in primaries. In June, the state Senate voted 27-13 to override Brownback's veto and roll back his tax cuts, while the state House vote was 88 to 31.
Now to the numbers. We'll start with the state House, which is up every two years. Despite the state GOP's problems, Kansas barely budged at the presidential level, going from a 60-38 Romney win to a 57-36 Trump victory. Romney carried 96 of the 125 House seats, while Trump took 91. However, Trump lost six Romney seats to Clinton and only flipped one Obama district.
There was also quite a bit of ticket-splitting. Thirteen Democrats represent Trump seats, while seven Republicans hold Clinton turf. Republicans hold four of the six Romney/Clinton seats and three Obama/Clinton districts, while Democrats hold the only Obama/Trump seat and 12 Romney/Trump districts.
While Trump did better than Romney in most of the state, one big exception was in Johnson County. This large and affluent Kansas City suburb still backed Trump, but his 47-44 victory there was considerably weaker than Romney's 58-40 win. Not surprisingly, all six of those Romney/Clinton seats are located entirely in Johnson County. The biggest swing to the left in this group was in HD-20, which went from 61-38 Romney to 48-46 Clinton. Freshman state Rep. Jan Kessinger defeated a conservative incumbent in the primary 55-45 and won the general election 65-35.
The Republican in the bluest seat is Melissa Rooker, another Johnson County legislator. Rooker won her third term 59-41 as her district went from a narrow 50-48 Obama victory to 59-33 Clinton. The one Republican in a Clinton seat who does not represent Johnson County is Thomas Sloan, a moderate who has served in the state House since 1995. Sloan's HD-45, which is located in the Lawrence area in next-door Douglas County, went from 55-43 Obama to 59-33 Clinton, but Sloan won 55-45.
The two Democrats in Romney/Clinton seats won their seats by defeating Johnson County Republicans in the general election. Democrat Cindy Holscher won 56-44 as her seat swung from 56-42 Romney to 47-46 Clinton, while Brett Parker won 53-47 as his district flipped from 54-45 Romney to 49-44 Clinton.
We'll turn to the 13 Democrats in Trump seats. The reddest of the bunch is HD-111, which is located around Hays in the middle of the state. This seat backed Romney 71-27 and Trump 69-24, but Democrat Eber Phelps unseated Republican incumbent Sue Boldra 54-46; four years before, Boldra unseated Phelps, an eight-term incumbent, 55-45. Phelps, who was mayor of Hays, attacked Boldra for supporting Brownback's agenda during his successful rematch campaign.
Another nine Democrats represent seats where Trump beat Clinton by at least a 10-point margin, and five members of that group unseated a Republican incumbent last year. Democrat Patsy Terrell also beat a GOP incumbent 56-44 to claim HD-102, which is located in Hutchinson, even as her seat went from 52-45 Romney to 54-37 Trump. Terrell died of natural causes in June, and Democrat Jason Probst was selected by the county Democrats to fill her seat. (There are no special elections for state legislative seats in Kansas.) The one Obama/Trump seat is HD-33, which is located in Wyandotte County in the Kansas City area. This seat went from 53-45 Obama to a very narrow 46.81-46.77 Trump, but Democratic incumbent Tom Burroughs was re-elected without any opposition.
We'll turn to the state Senate, which is only up in presidential years. Trump carried 33 of the 40 seats, losing two Romney districts. Both Romney/Clinton seats are held by the GOP, and unsurprisingly, both are in Johnson County. Dinah Sykes unseated a GOP incumbent in the primary 58-42 and won the general 50-40 as SD-21 went from 53-45 Romney to 48-45 Clinton. Republican state Sen. Jim Denning held his seat 53-47 in the general as SD-08 flipped from 57-41 Romney to 47-46 Clinton. Denning, a conservative who ousted a moderate in the 2012 primary, became majority leader after the election.
One Republican holds an Obama/Clinton seat. Republican freshman Barbara Bollier, a Johnson County moderate who did not need to unseat a GOP incumbent in the primary, won her first term 54-46 as SD-07 went from 50-48 Obama all the way to 57-36 Clinton. Meanwhile, four Democrats represent Romney/Trump seats. The Democrat in the reddest seat is Laura Kelly, who held her Topeka-area SD-18 52-48 even as it went from 52-45 Romney to 53-40 Trump.
While Republicans controlled the governorship and both chambers when it was time to redraw the lines, moderate and conservative Republicans could not agree on new maps, and the courts stepped in. The court-drawn maps aren't exactly great for Democrats in what is already a very tough state. One way to illustrate this is to sort each seat in the House by Clinton's margin of victory over Trump to see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted.
The median seat in the House backed Trump 59-33, a little to the right of his 57-36 statewide win. Interestingly, this seat is held by the Democrat Steven Crum, who beat a GOP incumbent 53-47 last year. The median point in the Senate backed Trump 55-37, a little to the left of his statewide win. Because the Senate has an even number of seats, we average the two middle seats to come up with the median point in the chamber. But unlike in the House, Democrats don't hold any seats that are more conservative than the median point.
And, for the record, we did not subject you to a single Wizard of Oz or What's the Matter with Kansas? joke. You're welcome, readers.