The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● ME-02: On Thursday, Democrats landed a new candidate to run in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, state Rep. Jared Golden, and not only does he come with a strong resume, he already seems to have made Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin a little bit anxious. In addition to being the third highest-ranking leader in the state House, Golden is also Marine veteran who served in combat in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Campaign Action
But it's Poliquin's response to Golden's entry that's most notable. Usually when an opponent enters the race against a sitting office-holder, the incumbent offers some anodyne statement about how he or she "welcomes a vigorous debate" or the like. Not this time. A Poliquin spokesman, Brent Littlefield, immediately sneered that "Young Jared Golden" (he's 35) "looks good on the surface" but is actually "an extreme Augusta liberal politician" who supports "illegal immigration sanctuary cities" and "socialist bureaucratic healthcare."
Littlefield also sniffed that Golden "even earned a D rating from the NRA," but Golden quickly showed he was ready for the attack and returned fire, saying, "I'm a Marine Corps infantryman. I don't think Brent Littlefield should question whether or not I'm comfortable with a rifle." That response is very much like the unforgettable argument made by another Afghanistan vet, Missouri's Jason Kander.
Such condescension toward a man who saw battle in wars overseas and overcame PTSD on his return home is really not a good look for Poliquin, but Golden should be absolutely thrilled that the congressman is taking him so seriously. First, though, Golden will have to concentrate on the Democratic primary, where businessman Jonathan Fulford is already running. The rural 2nd District went hard for Trump last year but had long supported Democrats in the past, so Team Blue is hoping a snap-back next year will give them a chance to unseat Poliquin, who seems to be worried about the very same thing.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Last week, Donald Trump came just short of endorsing ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward's GOP primary bid against Sen. Jeff Flake, tweeting, "Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate. He's toxic!" Trump hates Flake and very much wants him out of the Senate, but Ward is a weak candidate who has few allies and little cash, so it was a surprise that Trump appeared to side with her instead of waiting for someone stronger to run. In what is not a surprise, though, CNN reports that Trump didn't anticipate that his tweet would be seen by some people as an endorsement of Ward.
Instead, CNN's Eric Bradner writes that Trump actually has been persuaded that he can do better than Ward, who lost her 2016 primary to John McCain, albeit by a closer-than-expected 51-40 spread. Just before his unhinged Tuesday rally in Phoenix, Trump reportedly met backstage with former state party chair Robert Graham, state Treasurer Jeff DeWit, and Rep. Trent Franks, and the "sense among participants" was that DeWit and Franks were unlikely to run. (This is the first time we'd even heard Franks mentioned at all as a possible Flake opponent this cycle.) Graham does seem more interested, however, and Bradner writes that Trump encouraged the three of them to meet with him again to continue scheming against Flake.
● ME-Sen: In May, GOP Gov. Paul LePage said he would not challenge Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats. In July, LePage said there's a "possibility I might change my mind." On Wednesday, GOP Gov. Paul LePage reportedly told a local Rotary Club luncheon that he wasn't going to run. On Thursday, LePage told a radio station that "nothing's final in life." And we still have many months to go before Maine's candidate filing deadline puts an end to this game once and for all.
● MO-Sen: While the national GOP establishment has consolidated behind state Attorney General Josh Hawley, who has formed an exploratory committee, he still hasn't cleared the field. State Rep. Marsha Haefner, who will be termed-out of her suburban St. Louis legislative seat next year, tells Morning Consult's Eli Yokley that she will make her final decision around November, but says she's "all in" (Yokley's words) for a campaign "right now" (her own). Haefner argued that a woman would be the ideal candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, referring back to disastrous 2012 nominee Todd Akin and his "legitimate rape" debacle.
Haefner has said in the past that Rep. Ann Wagner, who planned to run for this seat until July, has encouraged her to get in, a claim Wagner has not disputed. Wagner herself said at the time she would "would hope that the Republican Party would support someone who is not a white male." However, Wagner also has spoken well of state Rep. Paul Curtman, who has formed an exploratory committee as well (and does happen be a white male), so she might not be entirely in Haefner's corner.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: On Thursday, Democratic state Rep. Craig Ford announced that he would sit the governor's race out. Ford, who stepped down as House minority leader a few months ago, briefly considered a run in this year's Senate special election as an independent, though he never suggested he might take such a route with the governor's race.
● GA-Gov: This week, state Rep. Stacey Abrams picked up an endorsement from Rep. David Scott ahead of next year's Democratic primary. Scott is the third and final Atlanta-area Democratic congressman to back Abrams over state Rep. Stacey Evans, joining John Lewis and Hank Johnson in Abrams' corner.
● ME-Gov: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been talking about running to succeed termed-out Maine Gov. Paul LePage for a while, and she reiterated this week that she's still interested, saying she'll decide by the end of September. Ever since her initial 1996 Senate victory, Collins has been renominated without opposition and has decisively turned back all Democratic attempts to unseat her. However, it's very possible that if she runs for governor, she'd have a tough fight for the GOP nod.
The only notable declared Republican candidate is Mary Mayhew, a former commissioner of the state's Department of Health and Human Services and a LePage ally. In an early August poll for an unnamed client, the Democratic firm PPP gave Mayhew a 44-33 lead in a hypothetical GOP primary over Collins. The survey also gave Collins a horrible 60 percent disapproval rating with primary voters.
Collins has carefully cultivated a moderate image for decades, which served her well when she had no intra-party opposition to speak of. She's also been sure to back Republicans in state elections, including her frequent critic LePage. But Collins notably voted against the Senate GOP's healthcare bill, a vote that may have finally pissed off Maine Republicans for good. LePage predicted on Thursday that Collins would lose a GOP primary if she runs, and in the age of Trump, it's quite possible that LePage has a better feel for the pulse of Maine Republicans than Collins does. LePage also speculated that Collins could instead run as an independent, something Collins has not publicly talked about doing.
Meanwhile, a different prospective GOP candidate took his name out of the running this week. Ex-state party chair Rick Bennett, a former state Senate leader, announced he would sit the contest out.
● OR-Gov: While Secretary of State Dennis Richardson, who was Team Red's 2014 gubernatorial nominee, had recently expressed interest in a bid against Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, he told Willamette Week on Wednesday that he wouldn't run. So far, state Rep. Knute Buehler has the primary to himself, and he recently got a hefty $500,000 contribution from wealthy donor Phil Knight. Buehler won his second term 52-48 in a Bend-area seat that backed Clinton 57-35, so he may have some crossover appeal in a state where the GOP hasn't won the governorship since 1982.
However, some anti-abortion conservatives are reportedly very unhappy with the prospect of nominating Buehler, who describes himself as "pro-choice," and they reportedly tried to recruit Richardson to challenge him. The Bend Bulletin's Gary Warner writes that anti-abortion groups have also courted state House Minority Leader Mike McLane, who represents a rural central Oregon seat, and McLane's office confirms that meetings have taken place. McLane's team hasn't said anything about his plans, however, though an unnamed McLane supporter tells Warner that he's "keeping his options open." McLane is a possible Trump pick for U.S. attorney, but with Trump so slow to fill key administration jobs, McLane may get tired of waiting around.
● RI-Gov: So what the flip is Allan Fung up to? Fung, the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in 2014, reportedly told a group of Republicans on Wednesday night that he'd run again, but the very next day, he'd only tell reporters that he'll make an announcement later this year. However, Fung didn't dispute the earlier report, and he added that the governor's race is the only one he's considering, so it sounds like we can count him in … eventually.
But even if he does go for it, Fung may not have the primary to himself: A number of other Republicans also sense that Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo, who beat Fung just 41-36 three years ago and has had an oft-rocky tenure, could be vulnerable. And some of these other potential contenders are holding themselves out as purer alternatives, especially former state Rep. Joe Trillo, who was Trump's Rhode Island campaign chair last year. Fung, by contrast, endorsed Marco Rubio and has criticized Trump's travel bans, the kind of thing that could easily put him on the outs with a whole lot of Republican voters.
● TN-Gov: This week, Mae Beavers announced that she was resigning from the state Senate to focus on winning the crowded GOP primary for Tennessee's open governorship. State legislators are forbidden from raising money during a legislative session, so it makes sense that Beavers is bailing now before the Senate reconvenes next year. Beavers, who led the successful drive this year to pass a resolution declaring that pornography is a "public health crisis," says she'll be able to concentrate on raising money once she's out of office. However, her fundraising efforts up until now have not gone well at all. Beavers entered the race at the end of May, after the legislature was done with its business, but she brought in just $36,000 during the entire month of June.
● TX-Gov: Earlier this cycle, Democratic Rep. Joaquín Castro announced that he would not challenge GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, but Politico's Edward-Isaac Dovere reports that some Democrats want him to run against a different Texas Republican. Dovere writes that state Democrats, as well as Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez, are encouraging Castro to give up his safely blue San Antonio seat to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott. Last month, Castro was reportedly asked if he was interested in running for governor and responded, "It's my intention right now to run for re-election. If that changes, I'll let you know." As we like to say, that very much is not a no.
However, it does seem unlikely that Castro, who has a reputation for cautiousness, will enter what would be an extremely tough race. There's little sign that Abbott is vulnerable next year in this conservative state, and it doesn't help that the governor has already stockpiled $41 million.
Dovere also writes that Joaquín Castro is more interested in advancing his identical twin brother Julián Castro's political career than his own. Julián Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio and ex-secretary of Housing and Urban Development, is reportedly interested in a 2020 presidential run. If Joaquín Castro runs for governor and loses, it could hurt the family's brand. And if Joaquín Castro actually won, Dovere says he's worried he could take attention away from his brother. Texas Democrats are hoping to at least land a credible candidate against Abbott, but it seems like a lot to hope for that Castro will undertake such a risky bid where even a victory could harm his brother's future.
House
● IN-04: Rep. Todd Rokita announced that he was running for the Senate two weeks ago, and so far, former Mike Pence advisor Diego Morales is the only notable Republican who has entered the race for this safely red seat. That may be about to change, however: On Wednesday, Steve Braun announced that he would resign as head of the state Department of Workforce Development at the end of August. Braun did not give a reason for his departure, but an unnamed source tells Howey Politics that Braun is "definitely" running for this seat. Braun is the brother of state Rep. Mike Braun, who is running against Rokita and Rep. Luke Messer in the GOP Senate primary.
And despite the relative quiet so far, other Republicans are indeed eyeing this district, which includes Kokomo, Lafayette, and Indianapolis' western suburbs. Howey says that state Sens. Rick Niemeyer and John Crane and state Rep. Sharon Negele are considering, though none of them have said anything publicly yet.
● IN-06: Businessman Greg Pence, who's been chairing the fundraising committee for Rep. Luke Messer's Senate bid, tells Howey Politics that he won't decide before October on a bid for this safely red eastern Indiana seat. While Pence says he's focused on Messer's campaign, however, he also acknowledges he's been meeting with county GOP chairs. Pence is close to his little brother Mike Pence, and if he gets in the race for this seat (which includes much of the turf Mike Pence represented in the House until he became governor in 2013), he should have absolutely no problem raising money.
GOP state Sen. Mike Crider and businessman Jonathan Lamb both announced weeks ago that they would run for this open seat, which includes the eastern Indianapolis suburbs, Muncie, and several communities along the Ohio and Kentucky borders. However, while state Sen. Jean Leising has acknowledged that she's interested, she tells Howey that she'll wait to see what Pence does. If Pence runs, it may take a very well-connected candidate to beat him … so why not turn to another Indiana GOP political family?
Howey reports that David Willkie, a former political director for ex-Sen. Richard Lugar, is "preparing a bid," though Willkie has not said anything publicly yet. Willkie is the grandson of Wendell Willkie, who lost the 1940 presidential election to Franklin Roosevelt and went on to work with both FDR and Eleanor Roosevelt. In addition to his work with Lugar in Congress and on the campaign trail, David Willkie had a business career that included a stint as a business-industry expert for 60 Minutes.
Willkie might have the resources to stand up to the Pences, but it doesn't sound like the other prospective candidates could. A few weeks ago, Roll Call's Simone Pathé wrote that while GOP insiders expect Lamb to be able to self-fund $100,000, they doubt he has much of a fundraising network in the district. These unnamed insiders also don't think that Crider, Leising, or Henry County Council President Nate LaMar, another possible candidate, could raise much either. Willkie, however, was not mentioned in that report.
● KS-02: This week, state Sen. Caryn Tyson announced that she was joining the GOP primary to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins. Back in 2015, Tyson authored a law that would have prevented state welfare recipients from withdrawing more than $25 a day from an ATM with their benefits card. The legislature ended up repealing Tyson's law after they learned that it violated federal rules and could cost Kansas millions in federal aid.
Tyson also served as the Senate's tax chair during the recent legislative session, where the GOP-dominated legislature voted to override Gov. Sam Brownback's veto and roll back his disastrous tax cuts, though Tyson herself voted to keep Brownback's policies in place. Democrats are hoping Brownback's unpopularity will give them an opening in this 56-37 Trump seat, and they're fielding 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis. Davis. Davis, a former House minority leader, carried this Topeka-area seat 51-45 even though he lost to Brownback 50-46 statewide. A few other Republicans are seeking this seat.
● MA-03: On Thursday, Democratic state Sen. Jamie Eldridge announced that he would not run to succeed retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas. Eldridge, who lost to Tsongas in the 2007 special election primary, was a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter in last year's presidential primary, which could have helped him stand out from the pack. So far, no notable Democrats have announced that they'll seek this 58-35 Clinton Merrimack Valley seat in the two weeks since Tsongas announced her retirement, though Daniel Koh recently resigned as Boston Mayor Marty Walsh's chief of staff ahead of a likely bid.
● TX-07: This week, former Harris County Department of Education member Debra Kerner dropped out of the crowded Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. John Culberson in this suburban Houston seat. While Kerner is a former countywide elected official, she raised just $14,000 during the second quarter of the race, considerably less than many of the other Democratic contenders.
Mayoral
● St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: On behalf of Florida Politics, St. Pete Polls is out with one last survey before Tuesday's non-partisan primary. They give ex-GOP Mayor Rick Baker a 47-40 advantage over Democratic incumbent Rick Kriseman, almost the same as the 46-39 Baker lead they found two weeks ago. Several minor candidates take a combined 7 percent of the vote. If no one takes a majority of the vote on Tuesday, the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 7 general. If this poll is accurate, though, Baker is awfully close to pulling off an outright victory.
