The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● Minneapolis, MN Mayor: Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges has a tough re-election campaign ahead of her this fall, and one of her biggest vulnerabilities is how the city is policed. It's been a painful topic in Minneapolis for years, and it only grew more so last month, when local police drew international attention after an officer fatally shot Justine Damond, an Australian-American woman who'd reported a possible assault near her home.
Campaign Action
Unlike many victims in other high-profile police shootings of unarmed individuals, who so often are black, Damond was white. That's prompted a different reaction this time, explains an in-depth report in the Washington Post: Large numbers of white people are suddenly joining with black activists to demand police reform. While it may seem dismaying that it took the death of a white woman to motivate these newcomers, the black leaders who have long been advocating for this cause say they welcome their reinforcements. One succinctly put it, "[W]e need their voices. We need their white power. We need their white privilege …. They will not be ignored, and nobody is going to try."
As a result, Hodges is facing greater scrutiny—and greater hostility—than ever before. There have been tensions between Hodges and the police throughout her tenure, but her critics have long argued that she hasn't done enough to challenge law enforcement. Hodges was particularly criticized for her inept handling of the death of Jamar Clark, a black man who was fatally shot by police in 2015. After Damond's death, Hodges took a more aggressive approach, asking for and receiving the resignation of Police Chief Janee Harteau. However, Harteau's departure hasn't calmed things for the mayor, especially with a high-profile election just months away.
In November, Hodges and her opponents will compete on one nonpartisan ballot, though most of the contenders (including Hodges) identify as Democrats. Voters will be allowed to rank their top three choices, and if no one takes a majority of first-place votes, second and third choices are redistributed from the candidates with the fewest votes to the remaining candidates. The process continues until someone clears 50 percent, so Hodges can't survive with a mere plurality.
Hodges also doesn't enjoy one of the usual benefits of incumbency: money. At the end of last year, Hodges trailed one of her main opponents, City Councilor Jacob Frey, $178,000 to $60,000 in cash-on-hand, and her financial situation hasn't improved during the first seven months of 2017. As of July 25, Frey held a $293,000 to $58,000 edge over the mayor. Meanwhile, Tom Hoch, the former CEO of the Hennepin Theater Trust, has been doing some self-funding, and he's been airing ads for over a month. At the end of July, Hoch had a war chest of $146,000—also greater than Hodges'.
There are a few other candidates in the field, though their finances are in even weaker shape. State Rep. Ray Dehn is close to local Democratic insiders, but his fundraising has been soft, leaving him with only $20,000 in the bank. Former Minneapolis NAACP President Nekima Levy-Pounds, a prominent member of the local Black Lives Matter movement, is also in the mix, but she had little cash at the end of 2016 and hasn't even reported her 2017 fundraising yet, even though the deadline has passed.
Hodges' opponents have naturally focused on policing, arguing that the city needs not just a new chief but a new mayor as well. Hodges has fought back by asserting that Frey is too close to the police union while claiming Dehn seeks to go too far and even wants cops to stop carrying guns. There has been no public polling, and the city's instant-runoff process would make it very difficult to accurately survey this contest. Given everything that's happened, though, it would not be a surprise if voters gave Hodges the boot.
Senate
● AL-Sen: The conservative blog RRH Elections is out with an in-house poll of the Aug. 15 GOP primary, and they show both Roy Moore, the former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, and appointed Sen. Luther Strange advancing to the September runoff. Moore leads with 31 percent, while Strange has a 29-18 lead over Rep. Mo Brooks for the second runoff spot. Unsurprisingly, no one is close to taking the majority they would need to avoid a second round and win the GOP nod outright.
This is only the third poll we've seen of this race, but it matches what we've seen. Cygnal, on behalf of several unnamed "businesses and associations, had Strange in first with 33, while Moore led Brooks 26-16 for second in late July. A few days later, the local Republican pollster Strategy Research released a survey for Raycom News Network that had Strange at 35, Moore 33, and Brooks all the way back at 16. Brooks has been on the receiving end of ad after ad from Strange and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's allied super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, which have argued that Brooks has opposed Trump too many times in the past. The SLF recently started attacking Moore, who doesn't have much money to defend himself.
Brooks did get some good news on Thursday, when he received an endorsement from the Senate Conservatives Fund. In past cycles, SCF has spent serious money in GOP primaries to boost anti-establishment candidate. However, time is running out, and if these polls are anywhere close to the mark, Brooks may just be too damaged to rally in the final days.
RRH is also the first group to release a runoff survey, and they find Moore leading Strange 34-32. They also test Brooks in one-on-ones against both leaders, and find the congressman trailing by at least 20 points.
● ND-Sen, ND-AL: GOP state Rep. Rick Becker has been flirting with a Senate bid for a while, and he told Say Anything that his timeline could go into next month. Rep. Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state in the House, has been taking his sweet time to decide if he'll challenge Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp, but Becker insists that his own "decision isn't hinged on what Cramer does." Becker also says he hasn't ruled out running for the House if Cramer leaves.
Becker, a libertarian-flavored Republican whose signature issue is curtailing the use of surveillance drones by police, ran for governor last year. However, Becker dropped out before the GOP primary after losing the state party endorsement to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who went on to badly lose the primary to now-Gov. Doug Burgum.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: There doesn't seem to be much of doubt that independent Gov. Bill Walker will seek a second term. In late July, Walker said he was "sure I'll run again," later adding that he'll announce in the summer. Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott, a Democrat who dropped out of the 2014 governor's race to become Walker's running mate after the primary, also recently said that the two "have both decided we will run again" and that "[w]hatever we do, we'll do together for sure."
A little weirdly, Mallott hedged a little and said that "[y]ou never say that in an absolute term because we have no idea what may occur," even though he responded "yes" when local station KINY asked him if the duo had "definitely made up your mind to run again." Mallot also did not say if Walker would run as an independent or seek a party label.
Walker is a former Republican who lost the 2010 GOP primary to incumbent Sean Parnell. Four years later as an independent, Walker became the de facto Democratic candidate after Mallot ended his campaign against Parnell and became Walker's running mate, leaving Team Blue without an official candidate on the ballot. There has been speculation that Walker could run as a Republican again, as a Democrat for real, or stay an independent. However, it looks extremely unlikely that Walker would campaign as a Republican ever again. And just in case he had thought about it, the state GOP chair recently blasted him as a "Democrat in independent clothing."
Jay Parmley, the state Democratic executive director, sounded quite different, saying that while the party hasn't spoken to Walker or Mallot about what they'll do, he's not concerned that the governor will appear on the same general election ballot against a Democrat. Parmley insisted that "the governor and the lieutenant governor are going to make a decision. We may have other Democrats who make a decision. And we will work all of that through as we go." While several Republicans have expressed interest in running, things have been much more quiet on the Democratic side. Ex-Sen. Mark Begich has not ruled out seeking the Democratic nod, though it's not clear if he'd be willing to run against Walker in a primary or a general.
It's also worth noting that the outcome of an ongoing lawsuit could have an effect on Walker's options. The state Democratic Party recently changed their rules to allow an independent to run in the Democratic primary, and they're suing to try and implement this change.
● AL-Gov: Before he was elected to the House, Bradley Byrne ran for governor in 2010 and lost the GOP runoff to the now-disgraced Robert Bentley 56-44. Byrne has expressed interest in another bid over the past few months, and he recently told Gulf Coast News Today that he's "going to take the time over the next several weeks, and I mean several weeks, to come to a conclusion about it."
If Byrne does run for governor again, he'll need to give up his safely red Mobile-area seat to join what's become a crowded primary, and he doesn't sound excited about doing that. Byrne insisted that he "love[s] what I'm doing now. I don't have a big urge to leave what I'm doing now, and I think that the work I'm doing now is very important."
● CA-Gov: On behalf of GOP businessman John Cox, SmithJohnson Research takes a look at next year's top two primary:
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D): 25
Businessman John Cox (R): 14
Ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 12
Assemblyman Travis Allen (R): 10
Treasurer John Chiang (D): 7
Ex-Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin (D): 3
Polls have consistently shown Newsom in first, but there's no consensus on who is grabbing the other general election slot, or even who is in striking distance of second place.
House
● IA-03: Yet another Democrat has joined the race for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, which is currently held by sophomore GOP Rep. David Young. Former U.S. Treasury economist Austin Frerick, who is 27 years old, announced his candidacy on Friday, pledging to take on "agricultural monopolies like Monsanto." The only Democratic candidate who's been in the race long enough to have filed a fundraising report in the second quarter is businesswoman Cindy Axne, who raised $76,000 in about a month.
● KS-03: Democratic attorney Andrea Ramsey, who is running to unseat GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District, just earned the endorsement of EMILY's List on Friday. Five other Democrats have filed for this race, but Ramsey, who brought in $171,000 in the second quarter of the year, leads the pack in fundraising by a wide margin. Her most prominent opponent for the Democratic nod is businessman Jay Sidie, who was Team Blue's nominee here in 2016.
● MN-01: One candidate announcement we missed a little while back in Minnesota's open 1st District came from teacher John Wayne Austinson, who joined the busy Democratic primary at the end of June. Austinson lost a race for the state House last year by a wide 59-41 margin against a Republican in a tough district. However, he has the kind of background that sometimes can go far: He's a longtime coach of high school football, a sport that is almost a religion in many parts of the country, and as such, one local report described him as a "familiar face for many" in the area.
● UT-03: The Aug. 15 GOP primary is coming up quickly, and Provo Mayor John Curtis has easily spent the most cash in this three-way race. Curtis, who loaned himself $100,000, spent $250,000 from July 1 to July 26, and he had $107,000 left for the homestretch.
Far behind is Chris Herrod, a former state representative who unexpectedly won the June state party convention. Herrod spent just $47,000 during this time, and he had $89,000 left over. Consultant Tanner Ainge, the son of Brigham Young University basketball star and current Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge, does not seem to be benefiting from his dad's connections. Ainge spent only $24,000, and he had $96,000 in his war chest.
However, both Herrod and Ainge do have some outside help. The anti-tax group the Club for Growth endorsed Herrod on Friday, and Politico reports that they've reserved $90,000 for a TV buy that will begin Monday. A mystery super PAC called Conservative Utah also has been spending $120,000 on a TV ad boosting businessman Ainge. There has been little polling here: The only surveys we've seen had fewer than 300 respondents, which is the minimum number we consider acceptable. The GOP nominee will be favored in November in what is usually a very red seat, though special elections in the age of Trump have been anything but predictable.
Grab Bag
● Netroots Nation: Next week, the staff of Daily Kos Elections is headed down to Atlanta for Netroots Nation, the annual progressive confab, and we'll be leading two panels. On Thursday morning, we're bringing back our classic DKE Q&A session, where we skip any formal presentations and go straight to questions from attendees about their favorite races around the country. It's always a blast, and if you plan to come, please RSVP here.
Then on Saturday morning, we're hosting a talk on how progressives should direct their energies going into the 2018 elections, with a special guest whose name you just might know: Jon Ossoff. You can RSVP for that panel here. If you'll be at the conference, please stop by one or both sessions, and if you haven't made plans to go yet, you can still sign up today!
