Longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been the metaphorical elephant in the room in Maine’s gubernatorial race for much of this cycle, since Collins has previously said she won’t make a decision on whether to run until the fall, even though her candidacy is widely seen as a significant possibility. Former state Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew isn’t waiting on Collins, though, since she kicked off her campaign two months ago. Politico relays that a new PPP poll somewhat surprisingly finds Mayhew with a 44-33 lead over Collins in a hypothetical Republican primary.
Collins has routinely been one of the country’s most popular incumbents, and she won significant crossover support from Democrats in her last few re-election battles. However, her steadfast opposition to the GOP’s health care bill has likely angered the Republican primary base, creating an opening for an insurgent challenger to attack her for insufficient conservatism in the closed primary.
However, one enormous question mark in this race is what role Maine’s new instant-runoff voting system will play after voters passed it at the ballot box in 2016. While the system will likely face lawsuits over its implementation for state-level general elections, it’s more likely than not to take effect for primaries and federal general elections.
This new electoral system could make it harder for Collins to win the Republican primary simply based on her universal name recognition if it becomes a more crowded affair. However, it could also give Collins even greater latitude to eschew the GOP primary altogether by running as an independent, since typically GOP-leaning voters who favor Collins wouldn’t have to worry about an independent candidacy playing spoiler and handing Democrats a victory with a mere plurality.
Of course, Collins has had opportunities to leave the GOP before in a state that’s long been unusually open to voting for independents, but has nonetheless remained within the party. If Collins does run for governor next year, she may find that her years of vocal strategic opposition to conservative hardliners has seriously endangered her ability to win the Republican primary in pursuit of winning over swing voters in this light-blue state.