NV-Sen, NV-03: Can Democrats be this lucky? Businessman Danny Tarkanian, a deeply flawed perennial candidate who has lost five races as a Republican in the Silver State, had been considering another bid for the 3rd Congressional District, but he announced on Tuesday that he’ll mount a primary challenge from the right against GOP Sen. Dean Heller. Heller is likely the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election next year since he’s the only one whose state voted for Clinton, and Heller already has a major Democratic opponent in the form of Rep. Jacky Rosen.
Tarkanian may have notoriously failed to win public office yet, but his unrelenting conservatism and famous name—his father, Jerry Tarkanian, was the legendary UNLV basketball coach—keep helping him snatch the GOP nomination. Tarkanian’s most recent election saw him run for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District in the Las Vegas suburbs in 2016. Little Tark beat then-state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, the party establishment’s preference, in the Republican primary, but Tarkanian went on to lose 47-46 to Rosen herself even as Trump flipped that seat and won it 48-47. Tarkanian’s previous failures include losing a race for the 4th Congressional District in 2012 and the Senate in 2010.
One reason Tarkanian would be such a weak candidate if he ousts Heller to secure the nomination is his record of failure in his business career. Tarkanian and his family had guaranteed bad loans in a venture to build an “equestrian destination resort.” He then had to declare bankruptcy in 2012 after being hit with a $17 million judgment and ended up settling the matter for $525,000. Democrats mercilessly attacked Tarkanian as a shady businessman last year on top of using his several failed runs for office to portray him as a desperate power-seeker. Team Blue would likely be pleased if next year’s Senate contest turns into a rematch of Tarkanian and Rosen on even bluer turf.
However, the Republican primary is another matter entirely. Heller found himself between a rock and a hard place during the GOP’s deeply unpopular effort to pass a health care bill. Heller attempted to distance himself from some of the harshest aspects of the GOP’s proposal—namely slashing Medicaid in a state that had expanded it—but in the end he tried to have it both ways by voting for some versions of the bill and opposing others.
With the bill having failed—at least for now—Heller has engendered hostility on both his left and right flanks. Indeed, a recent PPP survey found Heller deeply underwater with just 22 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. While Heller’s standing may improve as health care fades from the news, his opponents won’t be keen on dropping the politically potent issue.
Another recent poll by Strategic National tested a GOP primary matchup between Heller and Tarkanian and found the incumbent only had a 38-34 lead, while Heller’s approval rating was also upside down with Republicans at just 31 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving. However, Heller is unlikely to go down without a stiff fight. The Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, which has strong ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has promised it will spend seven figures to boost Heller in both the primary or general election if necessary. SLF spent a hefty $14 million on Nevada’s competitive 2016 Senate race, so their planned involvement is no small matter.
Contending with an unpopular Republican in the White House, representing a genuine swing state, and emerging bloodied from his party’s health care failures have left Heller uniquely vulnerable next year. Even if he successfully fends off Tarkanian, a vigorous primary challenge could force the incumbent to tack to the right and leave him damaged once he faces an even stronger Democratic foe in the general election.