The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● MI-11: On Monday, Rep. Dave Trott, a Michigan Republican serving only his second term in the House, announced he would not seek re-election, making him the third House Republican to retire in a competitive seat in just the last five days. Trott's 11th Congressional District, which awkwardly loops around the Detroit area to take in Troy, Novi, and Livonia thanks to one of the worst GOP gerrymanders in the country, backed Donald Trump 50-45, not much different than Mitt Romney's 52-47 win here four years before. This area is quite red down-ballot, but it's not impossible turf for Democrats. In 2014, as Democrat Gary Peters was winning his Senate seat 55-41, he carried this district 49-47.
Campaign Action
Trott won his second term 53-40 in a race that attracted little outside attention, but Democrats were already showing more interest in what is Michigan's best-educated congressional seat before Trott called it quits. Haley Stevens, a former chief of staff to Barack Obama's 2009 automotive industry task force, entered the race in late April and raised a credible $320,000 over the following two months, while Fayrouz Saad, a former director of Detroit's Office of Immigration Affairs, kicked off her campaign in July. Other Democrats could also eye this seat now that they won't need to run against Trott, a wealthy former foreclosure attorney.
It didn't take very long for local Republicans to start expressing interest in this seat. State Sen. Marty Knollenberg says he's considering getting in. Knollenberg's father, Joe Knollenberg, represented the old 9th District from 1993 until he lost to now-Sen. Gary Peters in 2008. Plymouth Township Supervisor Kurt Heise tells the Detroit News's Melissa Nann Burke that he's "looking at it very seriously." State Rep. Mike McCready, who is termed-out next year, also says he'll consider.
Ex-state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski very much did not say no, telling Burke that, while he didn't want to talk about his political future on Sept. 11, he remains committed to ideas "that I strongly believe would move our country forward for everyone." Raczkowski has been out of office since 2002, when he badly lost the U.S. Senate race to Democratic incumbent Carl Levin. Raczkowski launched a comeback bid in 2010 and narrowly lost to Peters 50-47, a rare success for Democrats in a swing seat in a horrible year.
That race was certainly not a boring one. During the campaign, Raczkowski told Politico that he would "love" to see Obama's birth certificate; Raczkowski's campaign later said his comments were taken out of context and that he didn't question Obama's citizenship, though they didn't explain what the proper context actually was.
At a fundraiser for his congressional campaign, prominent conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly drew unflattering headlines for Raczkowski when she declared that, besides "the blacks," the largest group to vote for Obama was unmarried women, because "when you kick your husband out, you've got to have big brother government to be your provider." Raczkowski awkwardly tried to distance himself from Schlafly's comments by saying he "believe[s] in equality for everyone. I'm color-blind and gender blind," coming very close to accidently echoing Stephen Colbert. Raczkowski ran for the state Senate four years later and lost a tight primary to Marty Knollenberg.
Several other Republicans are reportedly eyeing this seat. Roll Call's Simone Pathé writes that state Rep. Klint Kesto "may be most likely to get in" and that party strategist Rory Cooper, a former communications director for then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, is considering.
Pathé also says that state Rep. Laura Cox, who chairs the Appropriations Committee, may be interested. Republicans floated Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard's name to Politico's Elena Schneider as well. Bouchard has been sheriff in Oakland, which makes up almost two-thirds of this seat, since 1999, and he was re-elected 59-41 last year. However, his efforts to win higher office have not gone well. Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow 57-41, and he took a distant fourth place in the 2010 primary for governor with just 12 percent of the vote. (Cox's husband, then-Attorney General Mike Cox, took third place with 23 percent.)
Party insiders speculate to the Detroit News that RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel and state Sen. Mike Kowall, who is currently running for secretary of state, could also be interested. However, there's no word yet if Cox, Bouchard, Romney McDaniel, or Kowall actually are interested.
P.S.: To help keep tabs on this ever-changing playing field in the wake of this big wave of GOP retirements, we've created a new House open seat tracker, complete with presidential results for every district. So far this cycle, eight House Republicans are calling it quits (and not just leaving the House to run for another office), while just one Democrat is doing the same.
Senate
● AZ-Sen, MS-Sen, NV-Sen, TN-Sen: Former President Lyndon Baines Johnson once famously quipped about FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover, "It's probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in." That's one lesson the Republican establishment may be about to learn firsthand following the removal Steve Bannon, the white supremacist chief of Breitbart News, as Donald Trump's top political strategist. Politico reports that the ousted Bannon is now plotting to target several Republican senators in primaries from the nativist right in coordination with billionaire mega-donor Robert Mercer, who has the capability to pour millions into super PAC attack ads.
Bannon's target list reportedly includes four senators: Arizona's Jeff Flake, Mississippi's Roger Wicker, Nevada's Dean Heller, and Tennessee's Bob Corker. And we already know that Bannon has one sitting senator in his sights: He's been pushing his allies to aid former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, who's led appointed Sen. Luther Strange in all the polls of this month's GOP primary runoff for the special election for the seat once held by Jeff Sessions. Strange has the steadfast support of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and what remains of the party establishment, but Strange has received little encouragement from the White House in the runoff despite earning Trump's surprise endorsement in the first round.
Flake and Heller, meanwhile, already face major primary foes, with some polls showing them highly vulnerable in next year's primaries, while Mercer has previously given $300,000 to a super PAC backing former state Sen. Kelli Ward against Flake. According to Politico, Bannon recently threw his full support to Heller's challenger Danny Tarkanian, a failed businessman who has run and lost five campaigns yet keeps winning GOP primaries thanks to his unrelenting conservatism and famous family name. While a Bannon endorsement alone might not carry much weight with primary voters, his white supremacist media empire has the ability to influence and energize the same anti-immigrant primary fringe that helped Trump win the GOP presidential primary.
However, Heller is not without powerful allies of his own, as Las Vegas casino magnate Steve Wynn gave Heller his full backing at a recent GOP fundraiser. Wynn is a billionaire who became Republican National Committee finance chairman after Trump's election, meaning Heller's fundraising could benefit greatly both from Wynn's direct contributions and broader connections among wealthy GOP donors.
Wicker and Corker have thus far escaped the brunt of Trumpist wrath, but that may soon change. Neo-Confederate state Sen. Chris McDaniel almost knocked off longtime Sen. Thad Cochran in Mississippi's Republican primary in 2014, and McDaniel said back in March that he was thinking about challenging Wicker next year. A former conservative radio host, McDaniel's long history of racism makes him a natural fit for the potential support of Bannon and his network.
As for neighboring Tennessee, Corker had at one time been considered an ally of Trump and was even in the running to become secretary of state last year. However, several Tennessee Republicans have had an eye on challenging Corker next year, and his recent comments questioning Trump's fitness to be president will only serve to alienate him from the GOP base. Corker may sense this growing chasm himself: He recently told CNN that he "has not decided" whether or not to seek a third term in 2018. But Corker is nevertheless taking steps to run just in case, and he had a hefty $6.6 million in cash-on-hand at the beginning of July.
If Bannon and Mercer do indeed go all-out to wage war against the Senate GOP establishment, Democrats could be major beneficiaries. Flake and Heller already face the prospect of competitive general elections, meaning either could lose re-election even if they end up winning renomination. Of course, if 2016 taught us anything, it's that even a fringe hardliner can still prevail in a general election. However, Democrats would almost certainly have a better shot at beating flawed extremist insurgents than more mainstream incumbents in a general election.
After Flake and Heller, though, Democrats have few opportunities to go on offense in 2018, since they've picked up seats the last three times this class of senators has gone before voters (in 2012, 2006, and 2000). So even if the Democratic caucus successfully holds all 25 of its seats up next year—an incredibly tall task, given than 10 Democrats are seeking re-election in Trump states—Team Blue would still need to capture three Republican-held seats to flip the Senate.
Still, Bannon could make things more interesting elsewhere. Mississippi and Tennessee should be nobody's idea of swing states, but if Bannon goes full-tilt at the establishment, it will suck the establishment's resources away from more competitive general elections elsewhere. And as we saw in 2012, when GOP Senate candidates could not stop saying awful things about rape, a slate of Bannon-backed extremists could prove deleterious to the Republican brand nationwide.
● MI-Sen, MI-06: Grosse Pointe businessman and venture capitalist Sandy Pensler is the latest Republican to express interest in running for Senate next year against Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow. He recently told the Detroit Free Press that he expects he'll join the race and plans to form an exploratory committee soon. Pensler's previous electoral experience includes a failed run for the Lansing-based 8th Congressional District way back in 1992, when he lost a relatively close three-way race for the GOP nomination. The businessman likely has some substantial wealth, but it's unclear if he's capable or willing to self-fund.
Pensler isn't the only Republican who may end up joining the race. Despite recently heightened speculation that he might finally retire after 16 terms in the House, southwestern Michigan Rep. Fred Upton recently told reporter Jonathan Martin of the New York Times that he's actively considering a Senate bid of his own. Upton pointed to the events and fundraisers he's been holding outside of his own 6th District as something he wouldn't be doing if he were "contemplating retirement." However, the congressman's haul of $356,000 from April through June wasn't what one might expect for someone planning a statewide campaign in this large state.
While Upton would likely be a top candidate for the GOP, his critical role in passing Trumpcare through the House could prove to be a major liability when he has to introduce himself to voters in the rest of the state. Democrats could also have a much greater chance of flipping his 51-43 Trump, 51-48 Romney congressional seat if it becomes open.
● ND-Sen: We can add a new name to the mix of prospective Republican candidates thinking about challenging vulnerable Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp next year. Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller says she's been approached by prominent GOP leaders to run, is "weighing options" regarding a campaign, and plans to make her decision by November. Miller doesn't appear to have run for office before, but she could bring some considerable wealth and fundraising connections to the race if she does jump in. SayAnythingBlog's Rob Port reports that Miller is close to former GOP Rep. Rick Berg, which could mean her interest in the race is an indication that Berg won't seek a rematch with Heitkamp after losing to her in 2012.
● UT-Sen: On behalf of UtahPolicy.com, local pollster Dan Jones & Associates released a survey that showed GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch trailing Democrat Jenny Wilson, a member of the Salt Lake County Council, by a solid 45-34 margin. This result seemed just too good to be true for Democrats, and it is. Utah Policy confirms that Dan Jones did not tell respondents the candidate's party affiliations in what was "likely an oversight by our pollster."
So will Hatch seek an eighth term next year? Hatch himself told Politico on Monday, "Right now, I intend to run again. But who knows? By the end of the year, I'll make that determination." All cycle there have been reports that Mitt Romney is preparing to run if Hatch doesn't, so hopefully we'll have our answer one way or another before 2018 begins. But in the words of Orrin Hatch, "Who knows?"
● WI-Sen: Early in 2017, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said that he was thinking about running in the Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin next year. However, he announced on Monday that he wouldn't run and will instead support fellow state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who joined the GOP race last week. Interestingly enough, Scott Fitzgerald's brother Jeff Fitzgerald ran in the 2012 primary for this same seat while serving as Assembly speaker, but he came in a distant fourth place. Scott Fitzgerald may have been too concerned about repeating his brother's fate.
Gubernatorial
● MN-Gov: State Sen. Julie Rosen's name had come up as a potential gubernatorial candidate shortly after last year's presidential election, but she only just now confirmed that she is indeed considering whether to join the crowded Republican primary field for next year's contest to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton. Rosen specifically cited the lack of any women among the several GOP candidates who have already joined the race, indicating that she hoped a woman would end up on the Republican primary ballot.
● NV-Gov: Wealthy businessman Stephen Cloobeck, a Democrat, stated back in March that he was considering running in next year's open gubernatorial contest, but has mostly avoided speaking publicly about the race since then. However, the NV Indy's Riley Snyder reported on Saturday that Cloobeck reaffirmed he is still thinking about a campaign and has already set aside millions to self-fund it.
Cloobeck appears to be worth enough millions to be able to self-fund a substantial amount without breaking a sweat, which could make him a major contender in the Democratic primary. However, he is still maintaining a position that ought to be a disqualifier with Democratic primary voters: his endorsement of Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who is Team Blue's number one Senate target nationwide.
● PA-Gov: Back in May, Republican state House Speaker Mike Turzai revealed that he would "more seriously" explore a campaign for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf in 2018 after this year's state budget was finished, but he has said little since then. That's unsurprising considering the state budget has become a fight between Wolf and the Republican-dominated legislature that has dragged out for more than two months past the start of the state's fiscal year on July 1. However, local Republicans tell the Associated Press' Marc Levy that they've heard little from Turzai about a possible bid. GOP consultants also say there's no sign that Turzai is actually preparing a campaign.
If Turzai does still intend on running, he can't afford to wait too long and give his opponents a head start, since self-funding state Sen. Scott Wagner and wealthy businessman Paul Mango are already running in the GOP primary race. However, Turzai failing to ultimately run after initially appearing keen on doing so would be par for the course after he dropped out of the 2006 lieutenant governor's race and eventually declined to run for a U.S. House seat in 2012 after telling people he would run.
● VA-Gov: Democrat Ralph Northam's latest ad attempts to rebut a recent attack from Republican Ed Gillespie and his allies alleging that Northam doesn't show up for his current job. Unfortunately, it follows in the footsteps of a similar recent Northam ad by repeating the GOP's attack verbatim—something that just unnecessarily frames the subject on his opponent's terms—before launching into his bio about being a former Army doctor, volunteering at a children's hospice, and fighting for a smoking ban at bars and restaurants. Northam finishes with a quick jab at Gillespie, calling him a corporate D.C. lobbyist who shows up "for whoever pays him."
House
● AZ-02: On Friday, ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords endorsed Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented the neighboring 1st District until the beginning of the year, in the Democratic primary to take on GOP incumbent Martha McSally. Giffords, a former congresswoman who survived an assassination attempt in 2011 that killed six people, is one of the biggest names in Tucson politics. Ex-Rep. Ron Barber, a former Giffords aide who was wounded in that shooting, is also in Kirkpatrick's camp. Several other Democrats, including ex-state Rep. Brice Wheeler, former Army official Mary Matiella, and 2016 nominee Matt Heinz, are competing in the primary for this 50-45 Clinton seat.
● CO-03: On Friday, Grand Junction City Councilor Chris Kennedy, a retired Marine, announced that he would seek the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Scott Tipton. Kennedy will face state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush in the primary for this western Colorado seat, which swung from 52-46 Romney to 52-40 Trump.
● IL-06: Last week, former Naperville school board member Suzyn Price announced that she was dropping out of the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Peter Roskam. A number of other candidates are competing for this suburban Chicago seat.
● MN-01, MN-Gov: State Sen. Carla Nelson has been considering a bid for this open southern Minnesota seat for a while, and the Republican tells the Minneapolis Star Tribune that she expects to decide in the next couple of months. While Nelson has talked about running for governor in the past, she doesn't seem to have mentioned that race in her interview, which may be a sign that she's decided not to run for that post.
Last month, the Minnesota tipsheet Morning Take reported that national Republicans were encouraging Nelson to run for the 1st District, which swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump. However, the GOP has just a one-seat majority in the state Senate, and state Republicans are reportedly so worried about defending Nelson's Senate district if she leaves that they're encouraging her to stay put. The only noteworthy Republican running here so far is Jim Hagedorn, who narrowly lost the 2016 general election to departing Democratic incumbent Tim Walz.
● NY-01: Assemblyman Fred Thiele, a registered member of the Independence Party who caucuses with the Democrats, has talked about challenging sophomore GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin for a while. Thiele tells the Riverhead Times Review that he'll decide if he'll seek the Democratic nod within the next two weeks. Kate Browning, a former member of the Suffolk County Legislature, has also been talking about running here, but she and Thiele have sounded very reluctant to run against one another. Browning tells the paper that she will defer to Thiele if he decides to get in the race. A few other Democrats are campaigning for this eastern Long Island seat, which swung from a very narrow Obama win all the way to 55-42 Trump.
● PA-07, NJ-02: Here are two Republicans in competitive House seats who say they are not retiring. A spokesperson for Rep. Pat Meehan, whose suburban Philadelphia seat went from 50-49 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, tells the Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari that he's seeking another term. Several Democrats are campaigning for Philadelphia's 7th District, and the early frontrunner looks like state Sen. Daylin Leach.
Over in New Jersey's 2nd District, which swung from 54-45 Obama to 51-46 Trump, Rep. Frank LoBiondo tells The Hill that he has no plans to leave even after fellow Tuesday Group member Charlie Dent called it quits last week, with LoBiondo saying, "I still have high hopes." Democrats have been hoping for years that LoBiondo, who is 71, will retire and give them an opening in this coastal South Jersey seat, but he seems to be in no hurry to oblige. Democrats have also spent over a decade hoping that state Sen. Jeff Van Drew will challenge LoBiondo, and while he hasn't said no yet for this cycle, we're not optimistic.
● PA-10: Earlier this month, Trump announced that he was nominating GOP Rep. Tom Marino to serve as director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, or "drug czar." If the Senate confirms Marino, local GOP delegates will pick their special election nominee for this 66-30 Trump seat in rural northeastern Pennsylvania.
Keith Eckel, the former president of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau and former chair of Nationwide Mutual Insurance, told The Times-Tribune that he is considering, and reporter Borys Krawczeniuk writes that the local rank-and-file Republicans sound ready to back him if he gets in. Eckel is 70, which is quite old to start a career in the House, and he says he'd only run if he thought he could make a difference in the House. (He should ask Dave Trott how much of a difference he's making.)
Krawczeniuk also reports that David Weber, Marino's district director, is also "near the top of the Republican list." Weber, who is close to Eric Trump, very much did not say no to a possible bid, only saying he's "humbled that my name has been floated out there, but I still work for the congressman."
Legislative
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso has you covered, as always:
Mississippi HD-102: This is an open Republican seat in Hattiesburg. The candidates in this nonpartisan open primary are attorney Cory Ferraez, former legislative assistant Missy McGee, Air Force vet Casey Mercier, and social worker Kathryn Rehner. Of the four candidates, Rehner identifies as a Democrat and has the support of the DLCC; if she were to win, she'd break the GOP supermajority in the House. (The other three contenders are all apparently Republicans.) If nobody wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will take place on Oct. 3. Our preliminary calculations show Donald Trump winning this seat 47.6-47.3, a margin of 23 votes.
Oklahoma HD-46: This is an open Republican seat in the Oklahoma City suburbs. The Democratic candidate is teacher Jacob Rosecrants, who ran for this seat in 2016 and lost 60-40. The Republican candidate is Darin Chambers, a Navy veteran. This seat went 52-41 for Trump in 2016 and 60-40 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
New Hampshire House, Belknap-9: This is an open Republican seat encompassing the town of Belmont and city of Laconia, located north of Concord. The Democratic nominee is Charlie St. Claire, a member of the Laconia planning board. The Republican nominee is Steven Whalley, a local business owner. This seat went 56-39 for Trump in 2016 but backed Barack Obama 50-49 in 2012.
Grab Bag
● International Digest: New Zealand's parliamentary election looked for years as if it would be a snoozer, with the conservative National Party poised to win its fourth straight election after nine years in office. However, the recent selection of Jacinda Ardern to lead the center-left Labour Party has given the opposition a jolt, causing them to surge in the polls and put the outcome of late September's vote in suspense. Meanwhile, Kenya's presidential election will have to be rerun after the Supreme Court annulled the first vote, Catalonia barrels toward a showdown with Spain over a planned secession referendum, and Germany will soon elect its next parliament. Check out these stories and more in Daily Kos Elections' September edition of the International Digest.
