Republicans House leaders are facing a grim reality: They have produced basically nothing to please their base and now some of the saner members among their ranks are announcing retirements at a frightening clip. TPM's Cameron Joseph writes:
It’s not much fun to be a House Republican these days. President Trump has repeatedly taken potshots at their conference. Primary challenges burble on the right. Congress has been unable to pass much meaningful legislation in spite of unified control of Washington. Every trip home means an earful both from liberals furious at their support of the president and conservatives irate they’re not doing enough to support his agenda. And members who haven’t seen real competition for years face tough races due to Trump’s deep unpopularity. [...]
“There are a number of people, plenty of whom we don’t even know about yet, who are torn” about running again, said one national GOP strategist involved in House races. “Whether there’s measurable progress on tax reform the next 30 days will be determinative. If we get to November 1st and it looks like tax reform isn’t happening, I think there’ll be a mass exodus.”
“It’s a disaster if it doesn’t happen,” conservative Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) warned, referring to a failure to make meaningful progress on tax reform. “That has an effect. People like me who are here for the cause, if we see no hope for the cause, which in my case will never happen, that would have a terribly damning effect on our stamina here.”
We've already seen Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Dave Reichert (R-WA), and Dave Trott (R-MI) peel off.
And to say that tax reform isn't a slam dunk by any means is a gross understatement. Republicans will be lucky to get anything through. And they don’t just need it badly, they need it now. Politicians often announce their retirements during breaks, like the ones coming up around the holidays. If they don't have a tax win by then, all bets are off.