This post will go more in-depth into the swing seats Democrats will need to contest in order to flip the Florida Senate chamber in 2018. It is not a long-shot, and it is actually flippable, but the state party is not known for its competency, so candidate-recruitment will give us more insight as this cycle unfolds. During the 2018 midterm elections only even-numbered seats will be up for election. 20/40 seats are up for election, Democrats are only defending 5 seats. For each seat I will give voting numbers from 2016, presidential %’s from 2016 election (Clinton-Trump margins), as well as potential candidates that could run in the seat. Some of the seats have no candidate declared and the districts also don’t have rumblings happening that lead us to believe someone is running. Thus, if you read and know more about a specific district, be sure to drop that knowledge below so we can keep a running tab on each of these swing seats.
Senate Seat 8: This seat resides in Alachua, Putnam and a portion of Marion county. Sen. Perry won 53-47 in 2016, and Trump carried the seat with a .2% margin. Currently two candidates are declared: Kayser Emmeking and Olysha Magruder. Magruder has a developed website (voteolysha.com/...) and seems to be a viable candidate, having been an educator for a number of years. Representative Clovis Watson Jr., who represents a portion of the seat in the House, has filed for re-election in 2018, but would be a top pickup here for Democrats. The 2016 candidate ran up a strong margin in Alachua County but under performed in Marion. To win the seat Democrats will need to have a stronger turnout in Putnam and Marion and hope Gainesville shows up to vote for the candidate.
Senate Seat 16: This is Jack Latvala’s seat who is unable to run because of term limits, and is also a candidate for Gov. He ran uncontested in ‘16, and Trump won by almost 13 points. However, this will be an open-seat contest in a seat representing portions of Pasco and Pinellas counties. Pinellas is a place where Democrats could perform more strongly if we engaged voters, but as mentioned prior, the state party has not done a terrific job. Bernie Fensterwald is already declared for the seat after losing a run for HD-65 in 2016, though Representative Ben Diamond also represents Pinellas in the House and could run for the upper chamber. This is the toughest seat of the possibilities, but it will be open, which is a prime opportunity if a true wave forms in the midterms.
Senate Seat 18: This is a seat Clinton won by 5.4% and is situated in a part of Hillsborough County. There are no declared candidates here but Hillsborough is a strong place to recruit democratic challengers so it will be interesting to watch this contest unfold. This is one of 3 seats that Clinton won where a GOP rep holds the seat. Dana Young won in ‘16 with less than a majority of the vote, beating the Dem challenger 48-41, with an Independent carrying nearly 10% of the vote. With a viable candidate, we should absolutely contest this seat and be able to flip it over to the good side.
Senate Seat 20: Representing a portion of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk counties, this seat went for Trump by a 5 point margin in ‘16. Tom Lee ran uncontested here, but is eyeing the CFO race, which could potentially leave this seat open in the midterm contests as well. There aren’t any declared candidates but if one of the state reps from the H’boro delegation is in the district, they would be the best option at this point.
Senate Seat 22: This seat went 54-47 to the Republican in ‘16, and was +6.6% for Trump. It is seated in portions of Lake and Polk Counties. Bob Doyel is already declared for the seat and has launched a pretty mild website (bobdoyel.com). We’ll need a strong candidate here as it is probably the second toughest seat of the bunch to flip, unless a stronger candidate emerges.
Senate Seat 24: The other portion of Pinellas county is situated in this district. It went +7 for Trump in ‘16 and Senator Brandes ran unopposed. There are no candidates declared, and it will take a strong candidate to unseat Brandes, but Pinellas could be friendly territory if the state party gets to work. After 16 and 22 this will be the third toughest seat to flip but is entirely possible with a legitimate candidate and strong ground game in Pinellas.
Senate Seat 36: This seat went +13 for Clinton as Senator Garcia defended the seat 55-45 against the Dem challenger. No one is declared for this seat, but it in Miami-Dade county so candidate recruitment should be easier. It’s likely that a Representative (or several) will declare for the seat soon (or wait until after 2018 session potentially) but there are plenty of viable elected officials in this portion of the state who could win the seat. This should be the #1 target as it went so heavily for Clinton last year, but also because Garcia faces term limits which should allow Dems to flip the seat in an open election.
Senate Seat 40: If things go wrong for Taddeo in next week’s special, we’ll get another shot at this seat in ‘18. In 2016, the seat voted by an 18 point margin for Clinton, though it kept Artiles in the seat 51-41 before his resignation. If Taddeo doesn’t win, along with 36, this should be our top priority in the midterm senate contests. There would be plenty of candidates who could run here and make it a contest, as the seat is in Miami-Dade and is 72% Hispanic (as of the 2010 census.) With so many candidates declared for the open Congressional race in the 27th, it is not unlikely that one could drop down to this race if they live inside the district (if Taddeo doesn’t score the win next week.)
Overall, there are 8 seats that we should seriously be contesting, with 3 having voted for Clinton, two being open in ‘18, and all but 16 within a 7 point margin from 2016’s Presidential results. The GOP holds a 24-15 advantage currently, with District 40 to be decided next week. Thus, if we can win 40, we will only need to flip 5 seats in the midterm, with 8 strong options, 3 seats that we should flip more easily after Clinton’s strong performance there in ‘16.
Florida has a ton of potential for fluidity as this cycle develops as AG, CFO, Ag Commiss., and Gov/Lt. Gov elections are also all going to be open seats. Senator Grimsley from district 26 has already declared for the Ag race, leaving that an open contest as well, even though her seat voted for Trump by 30 points. Senate President Negron is rumored to be waiting to declare for the AG race. His seat, the 25th district, voted for Trump by almost 12 points last year, as he defended the seat 65-35. There will be other Senators looking to move up, either on the ticket for LG, Congressional races, or for the 4 statewide races, which will give democrats more chances to flip open seats in a midterm that could turn out a Democrat-friendly delegation in a potential wave election year.
Democrats are only defending 5 seats in this cycle (potential for 6 if Taddeo wins), and only one was within a 10 point margin, with district 36 keeping the Dem incumbent safe with a 54-46 win, as Clinton won the district by almost 13 points. None of the 5 Dem incumbents have been rumored to be interested in other offices, though that could change as the cycle develops more. Republicans are very over-exposed, Clinton performed well in many of these districts, and there will be a statewide impact to these seats as other GOP Senators declare for higher offices. Hopefully the state party is already recruiting strong candidates to contest each of these seats, and the others, to ride the blue wave in ‘18 and bring power back to Dems in Florida!
Order of flippability: 36, 40 (if needed), 8, 18, 20, 24, 22, 16