Sen. Lindsey Graham said Wednesday that House Speaker Paul Ryan told him to his face, "If you pass it, we pass it." It's still not clear Senate Republicans will make it to 50, but even if they do, it's no done deal in the House either and, frankly, Ryan hasn't proven to be much of a vote counter. The biggest problem? The version of the GOP healthcare bill that cleared the House earlier this year did so by just four votes, and the Senate's current bill deals a major financial blow to states that house 45 districts represented by Republicans who are either considered vulnerable or being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The Washington Post does the math:
That’s a total of 22 GOP-held seats currently rated as vulnerable by Cook Political Report that are in states that would lose billions in federal funding under Graham-Cassidy. Adding in the seats that the DCCC is targeting beyond those, and you get a total of 45 targets in these 11 states.
When the Republicans’ previous Obamacare repeal passed the House in May, 20 Republicans voted no, as the measure passed by just a four-vote margin, 217-213. Thus, if all those Republicans vote no on Cassidy-Graham, it would take only a shift of a handful of Republican yes votes to halt Cassidy-Graham, should it reach the House floor.
And consider this: Fully 16 vulnerable House Republicans voted "yes" on the last GOP bill but may think twice about the cuts Graham-Cassidy inflicts on their states. Check them out below.
- Knight (CA)
- Issa (CA)
- Denham (CA)
- Royce (CA)
- Walters (CA)
- Rohrabacher (CA)
- Faso (NY)
- Tenney (NY)
- McSally (AZ)
- Frelinghuysen (NJ)
- Roskam (IL)
- Bost (IL)
- Lewis (MN)
- Paulsen (MN)
- Curbelo (FL)
- Poliquin (ME)
Here's how much their respective states stand to lose under Graham-Cassidy from 2020 to 2026, according to a study by Avalere Health released Wednesday.
California: $78 Billion
New York: $45 Billion
Arizona: $11 Billion
New Jersey: $10 Billion
Illinois: $8 Billion
Minnesota: $8 Billion
Florida: $4 Billion
Maine: $1 Billion
Curious how the bill affects your state? Here’s the full chart.