The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● CO-Gov: On Thursday, Colorado Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne announced that she would seek the Democratic nomination to succeed her boss, termed-out Gov. John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper picked Lynne, a former Kaiser Permanente executive who previously served for 20 years in New York City government, to be his lieutenant governor last year after the previous office holder left to take a new post, and Lynne originally said she would not run for the top job. However, The Denver Post's John Frank writes that Hickenlooper privately encouraged her to change her mind.
Campaign Action
While Hickenlooper is publicly neutral, he's made it little secret that he wants Lynne to win, and he's helped her raise her profile at events around the state. Lynne herself also has played up her ties to the governor, telling the Post, "I think the transition from Gov. Hickenlooper, who has a great legacy, to someone who has been at his side, who has dealt every single day with a variety of issues, is a distinguishing characteristic."
However, Frank says that fundraising could be a challenge for Lynne, writing that Hickenlooper doesn't have a vast financial network he could easily pass on to Lynne, and that many of the business leaders who backed him in the past have gravitated to Republican state Treasurer Walker Stapleton's likely campaign. EMILY's List, a group that helps pro-choice Democratic women win office, also endorsed ex-state Treasurer Cary Kennedy months ago.
However, Frank also writes that Lynne will use her experience at Kaiser Permanente to reach out to business leaders. Frank describes her campaign as “aimed at moderate Democrats” who like Hickenlooper’s “personal brand as a mostly apolitical, business-friendly leader.” Lynne will face Kennedy, businessman Noel Ginsburg (who also has ties to Hickenlooper), wealthy Rep. Jared Polis, and ex-state Sen. Michael Johnston in the primary.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Local pollster Southeast Research, a group we don't think we've ever seen numbers from, takes their first look at the Sept. 26 GOP primary runoff, and they give ex-Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore a wide 52-36 lead over appointed Sen. Luther Strange. The poll does not appear to have been done on behalf of any group.
This is the fifth poll we've seen since the late August primary and they've all given Moore the lead, but by very different margins. Opinion Savvy and JMC Analytics had Moore up 50-32 and 51-32, respectively, very similar to this poll. Strange's allies at the Senate Leadership Fund dropped a Voter Surveys & Consulting poll showing Moore up "just" 45-41, while Harper Polling had Moore leading only 47-45, though that last survey had some methodological problems.
However, Strange did get some good news on Wednesday, when the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed him. The Chamber, which tends to side with candidates the GOP leadership likes, has a history of spending heavily in races they care about. However, Strange and his allies already could count on a huge spending edge over Moore, who has a solid base of socially conservative voters. If Moore really does still have a huge lead, throwing still more money into the race may not do enough to move the dial toward Strange.
● ND-Sen: Two months ago, the local blog Say Anything reported that the state Republican Party was trying to recruit Kathy Neset, an appointed member of the State Board of Higher Education, to challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Neset, geologist who runs a company that serves the oil industry, acknowledged her interest publicly this week for the first time to U.S. News, though she doesn't seem to have said much about her thinking on the race. Wealthy Rep. Tom Campbell is already in, while Rep. Kevin Cramer is still considering. However, an unnamed source close to Cramer says he's disinclined to risk his safe House seat for a risky Senate bid.
● WI-Sen: On Thursday, state Sen. Leah Vukmir announced that she would seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Vukmir, who represents part of the Milwaukee suburbs, has been talking about running for a while, and she has one prominent ally in her corner: Billionaire Diane Hendricks, a GOP mega donor, will serve as Vukmir's finance co-chair. While Gov. Scott Walker has not taken sides in the primary, Vukmir wasted no time tying herself to him, arguing that she "stood with Gov. Walker and real conservatives to enact successful reforms" in the state.
Vukmir will face Kevin Nicholson, a Marine veteran who has the support of the anti-tax Club for Growth and Richard Uihlein, another Republican mega donor, in the primary. Rich guy Eric Hovde, who narrowly lost the 2012 primary, also has been considering another bid, and he said on Thursday that he hopes to decide within the next 45 days.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: On Thursday, Republican Kay Ivey confirmed she would seek a full term next year. Ivey became governor in the spring after fellow Republican Robert Bentley, who was facing an almost-certain impeachment after he used state resources to try and cover up a sex scandal, resigned in disgrace as part of a deal with prosecutors. Ivey kept political observers guessing for months whether or not she would run next year or retire.
Several Republicans planned to run for governor when it looked like Bentley would just be termed-out of office, and most of them decided not to let Gov. Ivey keep them out of the race. Just on Wednesday state Sen. Bill Hightower, who has been raising money for a bid for governor for months, announced he was running, even though it was clear by that point that he'd need to get past Ivey. Hightower, a businessman by trade who had represented the Mobile area since 2013, brought in a credible $526,000 since June, and he had $505,000 in the bank at the end of August.
Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington, evangelical minister Scott Dawson, businessman Josh Jones, and state Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan are all also running in the GOP primary, and none of them sound ready to defer to Ivey either. However, while it only became clear over the last few weeks that Ivey planned to run, she quickly made up for lost time and beefed up her war-chest. AL.com reports that Ivey raised $825,000 from major state business interests over the last few days. By contrast, Battle has raised a total of $868,000 since June, more than any of Ivey's other foes.
Ivey did alienate Republicans after presiding over the collapse of the state's Prepaid Affordable College Tuition program during her tenure as state treasurer, which may help explain why so many Republicans seem to think she's beatable. Ivey has had several months to establish herself as governor, but polling is scarce in Alabama, so we don't have a good idea of how primary voters are reacting to her. If no one takes a majority of the vote in the primary, there will be a runoff, so Ivey can't just coast through a crowded field with a plurality.
● IL-Gov: On Wednesday, Democratic state Sen. Daniel Biss dropped Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa as his running mate after just a week on the ticket. In a statement, Biss said he was parting ways with Ramirez-Rosa because of the latter's support for the so-called "Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions" (or BDS) movement targeting Israel.
Strangely, Biss says that Ramirez-Rosa told him he opposed BDS when he was being vetted, even though Ramirez-Rosa had made public remarks last year that sounded very supportive of BDS, such as saying that the U.S. government "has subsidized the oppression of the Palestinian people, and it's time that stopped" and that "divesting from Israel" is "a conversation that needs to be had." Those comments received new scrutiny over the weekend when Rep. Brad Schneider cited them as among his reasons for withdrawing his endorsement from Biss.
That obviously prompted some difficult discussions at Biss HQ, and in explaining why he decided to pick a new running mate, Biss said that Ramirez-Rosa's "position has changed" on BDS. For Biss' statement to make sense, then, it would mean that Ramirez-Rosa gave him assurances he did not support BDS but was later unwilling to say so publicly after Schneider brought the issue front and center. Alternately, of course, it could have merely been a failure of vetting: After he was cut loose, Ramirez-Rosa insisted, "I've been consistent in my position for several years"
But will any of this matter? Probably not. Candidates for lieutenant governor, especially when they're on a joint ticket, rarely have an impact on the races they're running in. This episode has yielded an unpleasant set of headlines for Biss and doesn't make his campaign look great, but it'll likely soon be forgotten.
Writer Emmett Rensin offers a different take, though. He theorizes that Biss chose Ramirez-Rosa, who was elected to Chicago's city council two years ago at the age of 26 to become its first gay Latino member, as a way to activate an "aggressive base" among the "Chicago left." (Ramirez-Rosa is a vocal member of the Democratic Socialists of America.) The thinking here is that this grassroots fervor could have counteracted the huge sums that two wealthy Democrats, J.B. Pritzker and Chris Kennedy, are sure to pump into the primary. Now that he's given up on Ramirez-Rosa, Rensin thinks Biss won't be able to rely on this energy, though it's hard to say whether it would have been a difference-maker in the first place.
● MI-Gov: Local Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA tests Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette, who has done everything to get ready for a campaign besides announce he's in, against two prospective Democratic foes. Schuette ties ex-state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, the early Democratic primary frontrunner, 37-37. However, against attorney Geoffrey Fieger, who is considering getting in, Schuette posts a clear 43-33 lead. Fieger was Team Blue's 1998 nominee, and his disastrous campaign resulted in a 62-38 loss to GOP incumbent John Engler.
EPIC-MRA did not test Democrats Abdul El-Sayed, the former director of the Detroit health department, or wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar. GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, another likely candidate, also was not included in any head-to-head matchups, though the poll gave him a 16-7 favorable rating with general election voters, while Schuette posted a 26-18 score. Among the Democrats, Whitmer had a 12-6 favorable rating, while Fieger was underwater at 27-40.
Local Michigan polls have often badly missed the mark, so caution is always warranted here. However, this survey does give Democrats one reason for optimism. Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, who is termed-out, sports a terrible 41-57 approval rating. If Snyder is unpopular next November, it's going to be difficult for the GOP to make the case that voters should keep them in power.
● OH-Gov: Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, one of the four major GOP candidates running to succeed termed-out Gov. John Kasich, is out with a remarkably unfavorable primary poll from Axis Research. This survey, which sampled 602 primary voters from Aug. 13-15, gives Attorney General Mike DeWine the lead with 36 percent of the vote, while Taylor trails Secretary of State Jon Husted 20-17 for second place. Wealthy Rep. Jim Renacci is in fourth with 8 percent.
The National Journal's Zach Cohen relays that Taylor herself told him these results, so this is a survey she wanted to be public. We're not really sure why she would choose to share such a bleak report, though. DeWine, a former U.S. senator, starts out well-known, so he may not have room to grow, but it's still not great that Taylor is at best starting in a fight for a distant second place spot. (We’re also not really sure why anyone, even a GOP pollster, would name themselves “Axis Research.”)
House
● OH-01: Last year, GOP Rep. Steve Chabot beat little-known Democrat Michele Young 59-41 as his Cincinnati-area seat backed Trump 51-45. Young is out with a poll from Lake Research Partners giving Chabot "just" a 45-36 lead in the initial ballot, with the memo arguing that the undecideds lean Democratic. In any case, Democrats are almost certainly going to need stronger candidate to win in a seat this tough. State Rep. Alicia Reece has expressed interest, while Hamilton County Commission President Todd Portune and Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld have not ruled it out.
● PA-11: While GOP state Rep. Tarah Toohil expressed interest in running for this conservative open seat, she instead endorsed ex-State Revenue Secretary Dan Meuser. A few other Republicans are eyeing this Wyoming Valley seat, and we may have a new name: PoliticsPa says that former federal prosecutor Joe Peters is considering, and while he doesn't appear to have said anything publicly, he notably did attend the recent Wyoming County Community Fair with some other possible candidates.
Peters was Team Red's nominee for state auditor in 2004, and he lost 52-45. A few years later, Peters was brought on to serve as Democratic Attorney General Kathleen Kane's communications director. Peters resigned in 2014 after a report broke alleging that Kane had put a stop to a sting operation. Peters later was a witness in the investigation into grand jury leaks that ultimately led to Kane's indictment. Kane ended up not seeking a second term (and was later sentenced to 10 to 23 months in jail) and Peters ran in the GOP primary to succeed her, but he lost 64-36. Peters did well in the northeastern corner of the state around Scranton, an area that overlaps partially with this seat, but lost almost everywhere else.
● WA-08: Wednesday’s retirement announcement from longtime Republican Rep. Dave Reichert created an open seat that’s a real puzzle for local GOPers looking for a promotion. On the one hand, it’s an area that has continued to be fruitful for downballot Republicans, but on the other hand, it’s become much bluer at the presidential level and — given not just typical midterm dynamics but Donald Trump’s particular unpopularity — likely to be on the frontlines of anti-national-GOP backlash.
With that in mind, potential Republican replacements are continuing to mull over this race, with none of the bigger names (outgoing state Sen. and perennial candidate Dino Rossi, King County Councilor Reagan Dunn, 2016 gubernatorial nominee Bill Bryant) having said anything more on the race yet beyond their initial interest. The only new comments from late Wednesday were from two GOP legislators from the district’s more conservative southern portions: state Sen. Phil Fortunato, who was a definite no, and state Rep. J.T. Wilcox, who says he’ll think about it but is leaning against.
Most of the coverage of this race so far has focused on Republican names, but let’s review what we know about the Democratic field so far. Before Reichert’s announcement, there were five candidates on the Democratic side. The most prominent of them, in terms of actually holding electoral office (Reichert never faced a Dem opponent who was an elected official, though that’s more indicative of the lack of a Dem bench here), is Issaquah City Councilor Tola Marts. Marts, who began raising money in late May, had $33,000 in the bank at the end of June, a weak number for a competitive race.
Attorney Jason Rittereiser, who has family connections to Ellensburg, in the district’s rural portion east of the Cascades, has been perhaps the most active in terms of making appearances around the district. Toby Whitney, who is currently an Amazon manager but previously worked as a staffer for then-7th District Rep. Jim McDermott, may have some connections that the other candidates don’t have. Also running are pediatrician Kim Schreier and mortgage brokerage owner Mona Das. All four of these candidates entered the race after the last fundraising quarter ended, so we’ll need to wait until mid-October before we can get a look at their hauls.
However, with the unusual circumstances of an open seat in a wave-ish year, some of the more prominent Democrats in the 8th who’ve previously shrugged off entreaties to run may decide this is the year to finally to do it. It’s not as long a list as you might expect in a district that went 48-45 for Hillary Clinton, though, and that’s because, again, there’s not a robust Dem bench here, given the area’s long-standing preference for moderate Republicans at the state and county levels. One of the local Democratic legislators, state Sen. Mark Mullet, also took his name out of contention on Thursday, saying the time just wasn’t right for him. But we’ll put on our Great Mentioner cap and name a few other possibilities:
• State Rep. Pat Sullivan, who represents LD-47 in the swingier, more middle-class (think Boeing machinists, not Microsoft) suburbs further south like Auburn and Covington. Sullivan is the state House majority leader and he has stayed focused on legislative leadership rather than on Reichert, but he could conceivably change his tune now that there’s an open seat.
• Ex-state Rep. Chris Hurst, who until his 2016 retirement represented the more rural and conservative LD-31 at the district’s southern end. Hurst, who was one of the most centrist Democratic House members, is also a police detective and was frequently begged to run against Reichert under the assumption he could match Reichert’s tough-guy credentials
• Ex-state Sen. Claudia Kauffman, who represented LD-47 from 2006 until losing in 2010, was the state’s first female Native American legislator. Observers seemed to assume she was done running for office but she recently resurfaced to run for Port of Seattle Commission (where she lost in the primary), so she may be looking for another opportunity.
● WI-01: On behalf of Democrat Randy Bryce, an iron worker who has received national attention during his bid against Speaker Paul Ryan, Global Strategy Group is out with a general election poll giving Ryan a 46-37 lead. The memo argues that, while Ryan does post a 50-41 favorable rating, he could be vulnerable in this southern Wisconsin seat. While this district went from 52-47 Romney (with Ryan as his running mate) to 53-42 Trump, the poll gives Trump a bad 42-52 approval rating. Democrats would absolutely love to unseat Ryan, but he will have all the resources he could possibly need to win in a seat that has largely turned on national Democrats in recent years.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Budget Riders on the Storm edition features Wisconsin Republicans making insane accommodations to woo a corporation — including billions of dollars in incentives, waiving environmental regulations, and CHANGING THE LEGAL SYSTEM — and North Carolina Republicans being bad, because it’s a day that ends in y.
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