Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, one of the more moderate Republicans left in the House and a frequent Trump critic, announced on Thursday evening that he would not seek an eighth term next year, saying the White House had “taken the fun out of dysfunction.” Dent, who first won his Lehigh Valley seat in 2004, had always won re-election with ease, and Democrats have never seriously targeted him. However, his departure gives Democrats a much better chance to flip this seat, which includes the cities Allentown and Bethlehem.
While Trump carried Pennsylvania's 15th District 52-44, Mitt Romney won it by a narrower 51-48 margin four years before, and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey actually won this seat by a small 50-48 spread during his 2012 re-election campaign. But Republicans should be able to keep this race competitive: In 2014, even as deeply unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett was losing re-election 55-45 statewide, he still just barely won the 15th 50.3-49.7.
A few days before Dent announced his departure, he picked up a primary challenge from state Rep. Justin Simmons, who argued that the congressman “sides with the Democrats and gloats at sticking it to Republicans and the president.” Dent very much does not want Simmons to succeed him, and he predicted on Friday that a “centrist, pragmatic Republican” would join the race "imminently."
Since Dent’s decision to call it quits, a second legislator has already jumped in, state Rep. Ryan McKenzie. McKenzie may or may not be the pragmatist Dent has in mind: The Morning Call describes him as "more conservative than Dent,” but also says he's more friendly with the congressman than Simmons is (though given the animosity between Simmons and Dent, that wouldn't be hard). Democrats would prefer to face a tea partier like Simmons rather than a more low-key opponent in the Dent mold, but they’ll be looking to put this seat in play no matter who the GOP nominates.
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