Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is changing our ratings on nine races, with eight moves in Democrats’ favor.
• MD-Gov (Lean R to Likely R): Maryland is a blue state, and 2018 continues to shape up as a good year for Democrats, but Ben Jealous is nevertheless struggling against Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who remains very popular. Hogan has already been using his huge financial advantage to go on the attack, while his allies at the Republican Governors Association have also been spending heavily on spots against Jealous. Outside Democratic groups don't appear to be countering, which gives the GOP free reign to portray Jealous the way they want to portray him. It doesn’t help that a number of prominent local Democrats are openly siding with the incumbent.
Even Jealous’ campaign agrees that Hogan has a wide advantage. Jealous recently released a mid-July poll that gave the incumbent a 49-40 lead, apparently in an effort to convince donors he still has a shot, though that survey concluded only as the RGA’s barrage was just beginning. Hogan is still potentially vulnerable: He’s only the second Republican elected to the governorship since Spiro Agnew moved on to greater things in 1969, and Trump could yet cause the incumbent some problems. However, the Jealous poll is just the latest sign that Hogan is in charge.
• MI-Gov (Tossup to Lean D): It's a double-whammy for Republicans: Term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder is leaving office unpopular, and the GOP primary in the race to succeed him turned as toxic as month-old yogurt left on the radiator. Snyder has so far refused to endorse the Republican nominee, ultra-conservative state Attorney General Bill Schuette, and the guy he beat, Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, says Schuette wouldn't even accept his support!
Democrats, meanwhile, nominated their strongest possible candidate in former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, who has the full support of her defeated rivals and has led in every general election poll this year. Michigan is going to be a challenging hold for the GOP.
• CA-16 (Likely D to Safe D): Democratic Rep. Jim Costa's notorious laziness always gives us the hives: He barely eked out wins in the last two midterms (2010 and 2014), and the typical dropoff among Democratic-leaning groups in non-presidential elections had us worried we might see the something like that again this time. But the energy on the left this year ought to counterbalance any falloff, and if Republicans can actually afford to target any Democratic seats, it won't be one that Hillary Clinton carried 58-36.
• KS-03 (Lean R to Tossup): This well-educated and relatively affluent district in the Kansas City suburbs is like many others that reacted poorly to Donald Trump in 2016—and are now a key battleground in 2018. Operatives on both sides are treating this like a very competitive race, with outside groups from both parties making fall TV ad reservations.
Newly minted Democratic nominee Sharice Davids has looked impressive and sports a unique profile: She's a lesbian former mixed martial arts fighter, and is vying, along with New Mexico's Deb Haaland, to become the first Native American women to serve in Congress. GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder still has a large financial advantage, but the money should start pouring in for Davids now that she's won the primary.
• MI-08 (Lean R to Tossup): GOP Rep. Mike Bishop started off with a decided advantage in this gerrymandered district Trump won 51-44, but there are numerous signs that his position has deteriorated. Democrats have a top-tier candidate in former Defense Department official Elissa Slotkin, who has repeatedly dominated over Bishop in fundraising.
This Lansing-based seat also has a relatively large share of college-educated voters, the sort who look to be especially fired up about putting a check on the Trump administration. At the same time, special elections have shown Democrats rebounding with working-class white voters in the Midwest. Republicans like Bishop are getting squeezed at both ends, a combination that has produced what a highly competitive race. Democrats have also nominated former Lansing-area state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer for governor, which could also give local Democrats a boost downballot.
• PA-17 (Tossup to Lean D): Thanks to redistricting, the race for Pennsylvania's 17th pits two sitting members of Congress, Republican Keith Rothfus and Democrat Conor Lamb, against one another, but while this new district is evenly divided, the two incumbents are not on equal footing. In his stunning special election victory earlier this year in a much redder seat, Lamb showed an impressive ability to reach a broad spectrum of voters.
Rothus, by contrast, has always represented conservative turf, so he's never needed to speak to anyone but Republicans. An independent poll last month gave Lamb a double-digit lead, even though Rothfus represents far more of the revamped district, and Republicans never responded with contrary numbers. In a year like 2018, Rothfus is going to be back on his heels.
• TX-07 (Lean R to Tossup): This highly educated suburban Houston district has long favored Republicans by safe margins, but college-educated voters' disgust with Trump caused it to move dramatically, from 60-39 Romney to 48-47 Clinton. Despite its longtime GOP lean, there are indicators that this hostility to Trump is filtering downballot, and Republicans haven’t countered Democratic polls showing a close contest. Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher has been a phenomenal fundraiser, while national Republicans have openly worried that GOP Rep. John Culberson isn’t taking this race seriously enough. Both national parties have reserved millions in TV ad time here.
• TX-32 (Lean R to Tossup): This suburban Dallas seat is another highly educated and diversifying district that long favored the GOP by a considerable margin until it flipped from 57-41 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, but Republican Rep. Pete Sessions has nevertheless found himself in the fight of his career. Democrat Colin Allred has a compelling biography as a former NFL player turned civil rights lawyer, and he has notched up impressive fundraising hauls.
Sessions, who hasn’t faced a competitive race in decades, has meanwhile shown some signs he’s running an undisciplined campaign, particularly when he bizarrely defended a man who murdered his wife by blaming the woman for being “unfair.” National Democrats have also made hefty ad reservations here, and Republican insiders have been telling the media that they're worried about suburban seats like this.
• WA-03 (Likely R to Lean R): While a few votes remain to be tallied, the topline results of Washington's top-two primary were pretty stunning: Republican candidates, including GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, combined for just 51 percent of the vote, while Democrats, led by Carolyn Long, took 49 percent. For comparison, the spread was 55-42 in 2016 and 61-38 in 2014. The top-two format serves as almost a giant poll of the electorate, and one that historically has closely predicted November's outcomes. The GOP's small edge in the vote suggests Herrera Beutler still has an advantage, but Long is about to give the congresswoman her first competitive race since redistricting made this seat redder after the 2010 elections.
