Michigan State Legislative Project #5 – 10 State House Races (Or A Combo of Two Ideas)
I had two totally different set-ups for this as I was initially planning on running a #4.5 involving some longshots that I was impressed by and I had a full issue for a bunch of races (all State House). Well, I’ve decided to combine the two as I’m running my standard issue but I’m grouping the three races that some good people are stepping up in despite the odds and really trying to put their best foot forward (and, in a nod to the idea of a resistance, all three are pretty much standard, everyday people trying to step up for the good of all, they aren’t the “political elites” whatever that means). Also, as always, if there is information on any candidate (Democrat or Republican) that would give us pause please let me know, as outside of SE Michigan, I’m limited by the limits of my websearch and I may not have all the info (inside SE Michigan I may hear more through word of mouth so I have a few more resources). So, without further mention: Here. We. Gooooo…
State House District 16 (Wayne County – Cities of Westland & Wayne)
Incumbent Robert Kosowski (D – Westland, Term-Limited & running in the primary for State Senate District 6)
Democratic Candidates Running:
Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (trying to be equal opportunity but I can’t find a website or Facebook for him, if anyone puts it into the comments I’ll add it)
HR Manager & Democratic Activist (and Bernie Sanders Activist) Mike McDermott (site: https://www.mcdermottformichigan.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteMikeMcDermott/ )
Jacob Johnson about whom I have nothing
Republican Candidates Running: There isn’t even a Republican who’s filed an active candidate campaign for this cycle. This is the other side of gerrymandering.
This seat, which was won by Hillary Clinton has an open seat primary as effective legislator Kosowski is term-limited and thus running for state senate (in what should be a dandy of a primary against the excellent State Representative Erika Geiss). Based on fillings and cash I’d say the race is down to Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (who’s actually the cash leader) and the activists choice HR Manager Mike McDermott (who worked with Bernie Sanders campaign in Michigan last year), Jacob Johnson I can find nothing in a websearch and he (Jacob) has yet to file a report with the state. Neither of the top two candidates appear to be a bad choice with McDermott being incredibly active with canvassing and have the help of at least some of the local activists with Johnson being from the party’s more traditional labor wing (I’d personally like to see McDermott get it but unless something comes up I don’t know about Bill Johnson he wouldn’t be a terrible choice either). No republican has filed nor do I expect one to. If anyone has the candidate pages for Bill Johnson, I will add them in the interests of fairness but right now I’ve seen nothing.
State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)
Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)
Dems Running: Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/), Livonia School Board Member & University Official Dan Centers (http://www.dancenters.com/).
Potential Republicans: Livonia City Council Member Maureen Miller Brosnan and her husband Sean have both been discussed.
This district hasn’t gotten easier but Centers campaign has gotten more active and he’s been working with the State Senate campaign for Dayna Polehanki (who is awesome). Pohutsky I haven’t seen as much press on and she doesn’t necessarily have the same support. This remains a tough seat but one that is probably winnable.
State House District 41 (Oakland County – Troy, Clawson)
Incumbent: Martin Howrylak (R – not eligible to run for re-election)
Democratic Candidates Declared: Padma Kuppa (D-Troy), IT Analyst, Troy Planning Commission Member, Member of the Michigan Roundtable on Diversity (Facebook Candidate Page: https://www.facebook.com/electpadmakuppa/ ).
Republican Candidates Running: Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz, Attorney & Troy City Councilman Ethan Baker
It appears that the city of Troy is divided between here and the 40th district. This is not the greatest opening in the world but it is certainly possible. However, Kuppa is a very good candidate who appears to be getting some support. So we have a potentially terrific candidate, the downside is that two significant Republican candidates are running for it. However, Oakland County is one of the better areas for Democratic growth in the state and, while Kuppa doesn’t have a candidate website, she *does* have an ActBlue link up on her facebook. I really like this candidate and think she has a real chance.
House District 62 (Calhoun County – Battle Creek, Albion, Springfield, and Bedford, Pennfield, Convis, Lee, Clarence, Sheridan, and Albion Townships)
Incumbent: John Bizon (R – Running State Senate in the 19th District)
Democratic Candidates Running: Ex-Calhoun County Commissioner & 2016 Nominee Jim Haadsma (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Haadsma4House/) declared for the race November 30 (which wasn’t a huge surprise as he had been raising money during the year).
Republicans running: Pennfield Township Supervisor Dave Morgan (who I think ran for the office back in 2010, as he has a candidate committee registered in 2009)
This is among the top pick-up opportunities for Michigan Dems as Bizon was re-elected by over Haadsma by only 200 votes and Haadsma is giving it another shot. That, along with Bizon apparently running for State Senate, make this a top drawer State House pick-up opportunity, though there is a Republican candidate in Township Supervisor Morgan.
State House District 77 (Kent County – Wyoming & Byron Township)
Incumbent: Tommy Brann (R – Running for Re-election), owner of Brann’s restaurant chain
Challenger: Activist, Master’s Student, and recent Loss Prevention Manager Robert Van Kirk (Website: https://www.vankirkformi.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/robert.vankirk.gov/ )
I don’t dislike Van Kirk, but this is the more Republican portion of Kent County, Van Kirk doesn’t have much money, and Brann is an incumbent with a lot of money (Brann’s is a chain of Michigan restaurant’s going at least as far East as the Northville/Livonia border. However, it is a candidate running a campaign and issue wise he’s not bad.
House District 97 (Clare, Gladwin, and portions of Osceola & Arenac Counties including the cities of Evart, Harrison, Standish, and Au Gres)
Incumbent: Jason Wentworth (R-Clare, running for Re-election
Democratic Candidate with a registered Committee: retired social worker & activist Celia Young-Wenkel
Well, we have the Franks rule kick in as I see a candidate committee but no declaration or “I’m in” website. This isn’t a good website, but we *do* have a candidate and she may have some connection to Woman of Michigan Action Network (WOMAN) (a websearch for her name brought up a story with them) so she could have some friends in the activist branch of the party.
House District 110 (Upper Penninsula – Everything West of Marquette - Iron, Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, and Baraga Counties)
Incumbent: Scott Dianda (D – Running for State Senate)
Democratic Candidate Running: Ken Summers (D – L’Anse), an options trader who’s also President of the Baraga County Community Foundation (Campaign website: http://www.votekensummers.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteKenSummers/?ref=py_c )
Republicans Running: Optometrist & Ewen-Trout School Board Member Kirk Schott and teacher and 2016 nominee Gregory Markkanen
This is the more Republican of the 2 Upper Penninsula State House seats (Sara Cambensy’s Marquette based seat is slightly more hospitable to Democrats) and it’s an open seat as the term-limited Dianda is running for State Senate (which I think he has the advantage for). The only Democratic candidate running is Ken Summers, who’s a pretty good example of a hometown guy who made good and decided to move back home. The most recent filing available indicate that neither Republican has a ton of money on hand (this ended 10/31, Michigan also has a 12/31 filing that isn’t publicly available yet) but Republicans don’t have a ton of pick-up opportunities and Schott is an elected official so expect them to go all out. Summers is running on the issues of Education, Infrastructure, and Healthcare and seems to be a good guy.
Now are the three races I was going to list in the #4.5. These races aren’t your top drawer pick-up opportunities, but to butcher a quote from Game of Thrones for my own purposes: “What do we say to the God of Certain Electoral Defeat? Not today.”
State House District 70 (Montcalm & Gratiot Counties – Most of Montcalm including Greenville, and Alma & St. Louis MI and northern townships)
Incumbent: James Lower (R – Running for Re-Election)
Democratic Candidate Running: Teacher Kresta Train (website: http://www.train4mi.org/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Train4MI/ ).
This is not a great district, however, it has been winnable on occasion in the past (most notably the Montcalm County portion of the district was represented by Dem Mike Huckleberry in the 2008-2010 term). And we do have a candidate, one who has some decent issue releases (and the only one to address Corporate Welfare that I’ve seen) and is campaigning as a Progressive Dem. This isn’t a top tier pick, but let’s prove wrong the people who think we’ll only pick-up 5-6 State House seats (including one from one of the major interest groups).
State House District 89 (Ottawa County – Grand Haven, Ferrysburg and surrounding townships, a map is at http://gophouse.org/representatives/westmi/lilly/district-map/ )
Incumbent: Jim Lilly (R-Park Township, running for re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: Electrician (IBEW), former electrical contractor & Desert Storm Veteran Jerry Sias, Candidate Webpage: , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/bluecollar89/about/?ref=page_internal , Twitter: https://twitter.com/jbluecollar89 , Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjRdLEBTFmv9wqbxgKOmx9g )
This isn’t a good district, according to Ballotopedia Lilly won election in 2016 with 61.1% of the vote. Why list it? I have to say, its because I love the candidate: Jerry Sias worked his way forward from electrical apprentice, to foreman, to owning his own contracting company (Affordable Electric) after serving in Desert Storm. What caused him to be a former electrical contractor? A bad car accident. While I can no longer find the source so I won’t quote the exact odds, he was apparently given pretty long odds at recovery. While it did end his business, he did recover. Further, while a lot of blue collar dems don’t seem to care about diversity, he had a post on his campaign Facebook celebrating the first black female commander of a VFW post and encourages minorities vets to join their local clubs (stating that “we need your voice”). I know he doesn’t stand good odds but, on the surface, he really seems like a decent guy (save one if one of the West Michigan Kossacks has more information on his campaign or Jerry please let me know).
House District 105 (Northern Lower Peninsula: Charlevoix, Antrim, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego counties)
Incumbent: Triston Cole (R-Mancelona)
Dems Running: Marketing Manager Melissa Fruge (Website: https://www.melissafruge.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/melissaforchange/ )
Because of an error this got buried without the bolding in the State Senate Section last issue so I’m going to repeat everything here: Not a great opportunity but Fruge is good on the issues and is running at least a somewhat active campaign. I also like her focus on environmental & education issues. And her candidate Facebook showed her speaking to a pretty good crowd of the Charlevoix Democrats. Someone that appears to be a relative put up on her Candidate Facebook (regarding Melissa’s post on the Line 5 issue in Michigan): “If we don’t protect our home, no-one else will”, a worthy reminder.