The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: Well, well, well. After a lifetime of claiming he might run for higher office but never once going through with it, disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio finally pulled the trigger on a statewide bid with his announcement that he'd seek Arizona's open Senate seat this year. But there's still plenty of reason to believe that this time is little different from the five separate elections in which Arpaio flirted with a bid for governor—that is to say, it's a way to line Arpaio's pockets—and the most compelling evidence comes from the man himself.
Campaign Action
In an email to supporters on Tuesday morning, the 85-year-old Arpaio averred that his financial situation is modest, claiming that he's merely "a retired public servant living on a retired public servant's salary." A tough life! Won't you please spare a dime? Indeed, his bank account may be looking a bit slimmer after his long fight against criminal contempt of court charges, for which he was alarmingly pardoned by Donald Trump last year. But the best summary comes from The Hill reporter Scott Wong: When he asked an Arizona source, "Hey, is this Arpaio thing serious?" he was told, "It is a serious fundraising scam."
Of course, most retirees don't earn a "salary" at all, or even a pension, if that's what Arpaio means. He's also not exactly a "retiree," either: After two decades cementing his reputation as one of America's most venal and abusive lawmen, Arpaio got destroyed by Democrat Paul Penzone by a 56-44 margin in 2016, even as Trump carried Maricopa County 48-45. That's a hell of a lot of baggage to schlep into a Senate race.
Still, Arpaio retains his fervent, immigrant-hating fans among the GOP base—including Trump himself—and his name recognition is close to universal, so he definitely could win the Republican nomination even if he just phones in (or email$ in) his campaign. The instant conventional wisdom says that his entry would hurt former state Sen. Kelli Ward the most, since she'd pursue the same contingent of furious Trump-lovers. Likewise, this school of thought holds, it ought to help the more establishment Rep. Martha McSally, who's reportedly been planning to run for months and just sent out invitations to a series of "special announcements" that will take place in major cities around the state on Friday.
But as the New York Times' Alex Burns notes, the same argument was supposed to help now-former Alabama Sen. Luther Strange, who also faced two, ah, "exotic" opponents in his own primary. If anything, Arpaio is likely to create real problems for McSally: Ward's candidacy is apt to shrivel now, while Arpaio would almost certainly start out ahead—perhaps well ahead—of McSally in any poll. (Ward led McSally in multiple polls last year, and Arpaio > Ward.) It would be an ugly mess for the GOP, assuming McSally goes through with it. (Speculation abounds that she's instead hoping to be appointed to Arizona's other Senate seat if John McCain is unable to finish his term.)
And if Arpaio does emerge as his party's nominee and winds up having to defend this seat against Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema … well, that would be a race all too perfectly suited for these distressing times.
4Q Fundraising
Click here for our chart rounding up all Senate fundraising numbers. As per usual, we'll have a chart of House numbers after the reporting deadline, which is Jan. 31.
● AZ-Sen, AZ-02: Martha McSally (R) $1 million raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand
● CT-Sen: Chris Murphy (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand
● IL-Gov: Chris Kennedy (D): $1 million raised; Jeanne Ives (R): $500,000 raised
● MN-Gov: Chris Coleman (D): $800,000 raised (in 2017)
● PA-Gov: Paul Mango (R): $5.5 million cash-on-hand
● SC-Gov: Catherine Templeton (R): $721,000 raised, $2.3 million cash-on-hand
● AZ-02: Lea Marquez Peterson (R): $215,000 raised (in one month)
● AZ-09: Greg Stanton (D): $600,000 raised
● IL-03: Marie Newman (D): $261,000 raised
● IL-06: Kelly Mazeski (D): $163,000 raised, additional $100,000 self-funded, $510,000 cash-on-hand
● MA-03: Daniel Koh (D): $810,000 raised
● MN-03: Dean Phillips (D): $400,000 raised, $620,000 cash-on-hand
● NC-13: Kathy Manning (D): $530,000 raised (in one month)
● NJ-03: Andy Kim (D) $345,000 raised
● NM-01: Damon Martinez (D): $157,000 raised, $322,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-09: Adem Bunkeddeko (D): $120,000 raised
● PA-11: Andrew Lewis (R): $180,000 raised
● TX-32: Ed Meier (D): $210,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand; Lillian Salerno (D): $160,000 raised, $150,000 cash-on-hand
● UT-04: Ben McAdams (D): $500,000 raised, $469,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● OH-Sen: Days after presumptive GOP nominee Josh Mandel dropped his bid against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, national Republicans are still searching for a new candidate before the Feb. 7 filing deadline. J.D. Vance, who wrote the 2016 bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy about his experience growing up poor in working-class Appalachia, ruled out a bid in September after saying he had seriously considered it, and the Great Mentioner immediately began speculating he could change his mind. And it may be more than just idle speculation: Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has spoken to Vance about running and "has told associates that he would prioritize the race if Vance jumps in."
However, it's not clear how interested Vance is. It's certainly noteworthy that Vance hasn't said anything about his interest despite the intense speculation about his future. However, the Columbus Dispatch's Darrel Rowland says that people who work with Vance are convinced it's very unlikely he'll run in 2018 because he has a new baby and his wife is clerking for none other than Chief Justice John Roberts.
It's also quite possible that, even if Vance got in, he can't live up to the hype. Vance's promoters argue that he has the Rust Belt cred to negate Brown's populist profile, and the connections to run a serious bid. However, as Cleveland.com's Steve Koff reminds us, Vance may fail the critical Trump test. Vance admitted in an interview just after the 2016 election that he voted for conservative independent Evan McMullin in part because Trump "used rhetoric that's not in the best interest of the party or country," adding:
"[W]hile I think Trump had clearly diagnosed very real problems, I didn't see any real evidence that he had much in the way of positive solutions that would address a lot of these concerns. ... I'm sort of taking a wait-and-see approach, but if he doesn't [provide solutions], that's going to leave people in an even worse position than they were four years ago."
Doesn't exactly feel like a good fit for the modern GOP, does he?
The only declared GOP candidate is businessman Mike Gibbons, who has been running for months with little fanfare and insists he’s willing and able to pour $5 million of his money into a campaign.
● UT-Sen: Mitt Romney's likely Senate bid seems to have scared away most Utah Republicans, but at least one local politician seems ready to take his chances. Several Republicans tell Utah Policy that state Rep. Dan McCay is gearing up to run, possibly even against Romney. When McCay was asked about his interest, he only said "no comment" and talked about how focused he was on the upcoming legislative session.
GOP sources also say McCay thinks he could attract national PAC money from conservatives who don't want Romney, who often criticizes Trump (when he's not auditioning for a role in his administration, that is), in the Senate. Still, even if Romney's intra-party enemies actually do put their money where their mouth is, beating him in a primary will be incredibly challenging. The former Massachusetts governor is very popular in his adopted state, and Utah may be the one place where primary voters may not respond well to someone running as a pro-Trump Republican.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: State Sen. Mike Dunleavy recently relaunched his campaign for the GOP nomination, and he announced on Monday he had resigned from office to focus on his bid.
● IL-Gov: Billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker has been able to run TV ads continuously since May, but his Democratic primary rivals have had to conserve their more finite resources heading into the March 20 race. Businessman Chris Kennedy began advertising in November, and state Sen. Daniel Biss is going up with his first spots this week.
Biss' first ad starts with a shot of one of Pritzker's many commercials, as Biss declares, "He'll spend any amount to win, but we're the ones who lose." As Biss is shown at home with his family, the candidate suggests that things would be better for the middle class if more candidates "had kids in public schools or struggled to balance their own budgets," and says he left teaching to be an organizer and legislator to fight for fair taxes and affordable healthcare.
Biss also has a 15-second commercial where he declares that as "the only candidate for governor with kids in public schools," he's the only candidate who "will make billionaires pay their fair share in taxes to fully fund them." There is no word on the size of the buy, though the campaign says the ads will start running statewide on Wednesday.
● KS-Gov: Kansas is going to be stuck with one-and-a-half governors for at least a bit longer. On Monday, the White House announced that it was renominating GOP Gov. Sam Brownback to serve as its "Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom." Trump first nominated Brownback for this post all the way back in July, but since the Senate didn't confirm him by the end of 2017, the confirmation process needed to start all over again. Democrats have opposed Brownback over his anti-gay views, and his old colleagues in the Senate GOP don't seem to be in any hurry to push him through.
Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer is one of several Republicans running for this open seat this year, and he has the most to lose from all this confusion. If Brownback's (first) nomination had gone smoothly, Colyer would have had about a year to serve as governor before the August primary, which could have given him a leg up on his competitors. Instead, Brownback has given some of his powers to Colyer, but created an awkward situation where Republican legislators have outright admitted they're not sure who is in charge. However, it was Brownback who delivered the 2018 State of the State address on Tuesday and declared he was still governor.
● MI-Gov: Despite some occasional speculation to the contrary, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan once again very clearly ruled out the idea of seeking the Democratic nod for governor.
● OH-Gov: Ex-state Attorney General Richard Cordray has scheduled a major announcement for Wednesday, and multiple media outlets say he'll be revealing that ex-Rep. Betty Sutton is dropping her bid for the Democratic nomination and joining his ticket as his candidate for lieutenant governor. (In Ohio primaries, candidates for governor pick a running mate, and both parts of the ticket either win or lose the primary together.) The decision isn't a big surprise. Notably, when Cordray resigned as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to prepare to run, most of the other Democratic candidates made it very clear they weren't going to defer to him, but Sutton alone held her fire.
Meanwhile, we can expect another Democrat to enter the primary soon. Dennis Kucinich, a former congressman turned Trump-friendly Fox talking head, filed to run on Monday, and while he has not announced he's in yet, he apparently told his employer he'd run. Fox recently published a story saying that Kucinich will announce he's in next week, and Monday was his last day as a Fox contributor. Kucinich himself is still playing coy, telling the local media, "I am not a candidate at this point." Ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich, state Sen. Joe Schiavoni, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley are also in, as (unfortunately) is ex-state Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill.
House
● CA-39: GOP Rep. Ed Royce's retirement announcement in this competitive seat came as a complete surprise to everyone on Monday, and even the GOP leadership only learned about it from Twitter. However, Royce didn't waste much time making it clear whom he wanted to succeed him. On Tuesday evening, Royce endorsed former Assemblywoman Young Kim, who worked for him as an aide for years. Kim had been running for the Orange County Board of Supervisors, but she quickly had a website up announcing a bid for this district.
In 2014, Kim made her first bid for elected office by challenging Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva in a Fullerton-area district that had just gone from red to blue. Kim unseated Quirk-Silva 55-45 in what was a horrible Democratic year almost everywhere, but Quirk-Silva came back and won their rematch 53-47 as Clinton carried the seat 57-37.
Plenty of other Republicans were name-checked in the hours after Royce retired, though his support for Kim may winnow the field. The only other Republican we've heard from here is former Orange County Republican Party Chair Scott Baugh. Baugh did not rule anything out when the Los Angeles Times asked him about his interest on Monday, instead saying, "Typically in these races, there's one or two strong people who emerge within a matter of days, and I think you'll see that." Baugh has coveted a seat in Congress for a while, and he has $545,000 in the bank already for an eventual bid. However, the seat Baugh has been looking at was the 48th District, which is a bit a ways away from this district (especially when traffic is bad, which is pretty much always). In early 2016, Baugh began raising money for a bid to succeed GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher whenever he retired, thinking that would be soon.
However, while Rohrabacher initially didn't deny Baugh's claim that he was fundraising with the congressman's permission, their relationship soured after Baugh told the Orange County Register he wasn't "going to engage in speculation" when they asked if he might run against Rohrabacher if he didn't retire. Rohrabacher put out an angry statement declaring that Baugh "represented to me and many of my supporters/donors that he would never run against me and was only raising money for when I retire. Baugh now seems to be evolving out of that commitment," and told him to return the donations. While Baugh almost completely halted his fundraising afterwards, he still has the cash he brought in two years ago.
GOP insiders also name-dropped several other Republicans to Roll Call on Monday including ex-state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff; Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel; and Assemblyman Phillip Chen. They also mentioned ex-Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang, who is planning to run in the June recall election against Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman. (Newman narrowly beat her in 2016, and right-wing groups are trying to fire him over his support for a gas-tax increase in order to fund a $52 billion transportation plan. The recall vote will take place the same day as the top two primary, which could impact turnout for this primary.)
GOP consultant Matt Rexroad also mentioned ex-Rep. Gary Miller, who will turn 70 before Election Day, as a possibility. Around the Capitol's Scott Lay added state Sen. Janet Nguyen, Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson, and La Habra Mayor Tim Shaw as potential candidates. So far, none of this group has said anything about their interest or lack or it.
This diverse and well-educated seat, which includes Fullerton, Chino Hills, and Richard Nixon's birthplace of Yorba Linda, swung from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and it was already shaping up to be a top Democratic target. But as we've mentioned before, a number of Democrats entered the race for this seat before Royce bailed: If Democrats split the blue vote enough to allow two Republicans to take the most votes in the June top-two primary, Team Red will keep this seat red by default. Lay also says that Mt. San Antonio College trustee Jay Chen, a Democrat who lost to Royce 58-42 in 2012, "is reportedly in the race," which wouldn’t help the Democrats’ June math. The GOP's best-case scenario is probably if Young and just one other credible Republican enters the race, but that's also easier said than done.
● IL-04: On Tuesday, Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa announced he was dropping his bid for this safely Democratic seat and endorsing Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia. The only poll we've seen ahead of the March primary was a Garcia internal that showed him leading Ramirez-Rosa 53-7, with nonprofit director Sol Flores at 3. Ramirez-Rosa reportedly saw similar numbers, and Politico reports that he told supports over the weekend that Garcia was "unbeatable."
● NM-02: Andrew Salas, the former commander of the New Mexico National Guard, announced this week he was exiting the GOP primary for this open seat, saying he had "recently I received a new assignment that will continue to take me out of New Mexico during the homestretch of the campaign." Several other Republicans are competing for this 50-40 Trump seat in the southern corner of the state, but former state party chair Monty Newman and state Rep. Yvette Herrell were the only candidates who had much money at the end of September.
● PA-09: Two Republicans have taken their names out of consideration for this safely red Altoona-area seat. Businessman Michael DelGrosso, who almost beat Rep. Bill Shuster in 2004, briefly considered running to succeed the retiring congressman before saying no, while state Sen. Rich Alloway also announced he wouldn't run after thinking about it.
However, another Republican did announce he was in this week, though he doesn't exactly seem formidable. Businessman Travis Schooley ran an underfunded primary bid against Shuster in 2014 and took a distant third with 13 percent of the vote. Schooley ran for the Franklin County Commission the next year, but again took last place in the GOP primary. So far, the only noteworthy GOP candidate who has jumped in is businessman Art Halvorson, who outpaced Schooley in the 2014 primary and only narrowly lost to Shuster two years later, before badly losing the general as the tea partying Democratic nominee.
● PA-18: Here's what you shouldn't have to do if you're the Republican Party and you've got a special election coming up in a dark red seat that Donald Trump won by a 58-39 margin: send in Mike Pence to campaign for your candidate. But, yah, that's exactly what they're doing. That isn't exactly a vote of confidence in state Rep. Rick Saccone, who already has GOP operatives fretting about his electability and just got a $1 million infusion from a conservative super PAC that's running TV ads on his behalf. Democrats, meanwhile, have no such qualms about their candidate, former prosecutor and Marine veteran Conor Lamb, though a win here would, of course, still be a big upset. In this environment, though, you can't rule it out.
● WA-08: Shannon Hader, who until recently served as a senior official at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, announced this week that she would run for this open swing seat as a Democrat. Hader, a former director at the CDC's Division of Global HIV & TB, has an interesting background, and we'll see if she’ll have the resources to get her name out in a crowded field. A few other Democrats are seeking to succeed GOP Rep. Dave Reichert, who is retiring from a suburban Seattle seat that both Obama and Clinton narrowly carried, while ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi has no serious GOP opposition in the August top-two primary.
● NC Redistricting: In a massive victory for Democrats, a federal court hearing a challenge to North Carolina's Republican-drawn congressional map struck it down on Tuesday evening as a partisan gerrymander designed to benefit the GOP in violation of the constitution. The ramifications of this ruling are enormous: If current district lines are replaced with a nonpartisan map, Democrats could gain anywhere from two to five seats, according to an analysis by Stephen Wolf. It could also give further ammunition to plaintiffs seeking to invalidate gerrymandered maps elsewhere on the same grounds. Republicans will inevitably appeal to the Supreme Court, which is adjudicating two other similar cases, so the outcome may yet change. We'll bring you much, much more in the next Digest.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We recently we introduced the Special Elections Index, which calculates the political mood based on the results of House and legislative special elections, and showed that 2017 had a higher value for this index than we've seen in many years. That sounds great – but what does it mean? Our new post shows that Special Elections Index values are correlated with the House popular vote, even a year ahead of time. And that means that based on 2017 data, Democrats are likely to do well in 2018.
Grab bag
● Massachusetts, Rhode Island: To avoid conflicting with the start of Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement, Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin has moved his state's primary from Sept. 18 to Sept. 4, which is the day after Labor Day. In neighboring Rhode Island, meanwhile, primaries will take place on Sept. 12, which is a Wednesday, instead of on Sept. 11, which is the second day of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year. You can keep track of the dates for all primaries, runoffs, and major-party candidate filing deadlines by bookmarking Daily Kos Elections' 2018 calendar.
