As expected, Pr*sident Trump will continue waiving economic sanctions on Iran as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement that lifted those sanctions in exchange for Tehran retreating on various aspects of its nuclear development program. But, in a background briefing with reporters, senior White House officials said this will be the last time the waivers will be renewed unless Europeans and Democrats come up with changes in the nuclear agreement that Trump has repeatedly called “horrible” “awful,” and "one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into." Moreover, new sanctions not related to the nuclear agreement will be imposed, according to a top aide.
The waivers must be renewed every 120 days. In addition, under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the president must certify every 90 days that Iran is complying with the agreement. He has done so twice since taking office, but made clear last summer that he wanted his staff to find reasons not to certify when the next deadline arrived in October.
This presented a problem for his advisers because inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have repeatedly found that Iran is fully complying with the agreement. Failure to certify compliance could have spurred Congress to reimpose the nuclear sanctions after a 60-day review under INARA. And that, in turn, could have led Iran’s leaders to withdraw entirely from the agreement even though the other five nations that joined the United States in negotiating the multilateral deal with Iran oppose renewed sanctions.
But the advisers persuaded Trump that he could decertify without a call for Congress to reimpose sanctions. And that is what happened. Congress could still have reimposed the sanctions, but the 60-day review period passed without action on that front.
The October decision and the latest one is a victory for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, and Defense Secretary James Mattis. Although each of them believe the agreement is flawed, they and other critics say it’s contrary to U.S. interests to withdraw at this point, not least because it would cause distrust between America and its allies.
This factor was reiterated by European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini Thursday:
"The deal is working; it is delivering on its main goal, which means keeping the Iranian nuclear programme in check and under close surveillance,” [she said].
"The unity of the international community is essential to preserve a deal that is working, that is making the world safer and that is preventing a potential nuclear arms race in the region. And we expect all parties to continue to fully implement this agreement."
The key changes that Trump wants in the agreement are removing its "sunset clauses." One of those clauses allows for the lifting of restrictions on Iran's uranium enrichment after 2025. He also wants the IAEA to have access to Iranian military sites. And for the deal to include controls on Iran’s highly successful ballistic missile program.
Tennessee Republican Sen. Bob Corker, the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a longtime critic of the nuclear deal, has said several times in the past couple of months that progress is being made in making the changes Trump wants in the agreement. But Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin told The Hill that an agreement on changing the agreement is nowhere close.