The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: On Friday, GOP Rep, Martha McSally kicked off her long-expected bid for Arizona's open Senate seat. The GOP Senate leadership hasn't done much to hide that they prefer McSally, who represents a competitive seat around Tucson, to any of their alternatives, and it's not hard to see why. Former state Sen. Kelli Ward is a lousy fundraiser, while Joe Arpaio badly lost re-election as Maricopa County sheriff in 2016, and plenty of Republicans are convinced his new Senate campaign is really just a scam to help him raise money for his many legal bills.
Campaign Action
However, McSally is trying to avoid being caricatured as a dreaded establishment candidate. While McSally didn't endorse Trump during the 2016 campaign and called for him to quit the race after he was caught bragging on tape about sexual assault, she's been a reliable Trump ally over the last year. McSally's campaign kickoff video featured a clip of Trump exclaiming, "My friend, Martha McSally, she's the real deal. … She's tough," followed by the candidate saying, "Like our president, I'm tired of P.C. politicians and their B.S. excuse." That may be enough to get her through the late summer primary against disorganized opponents, though it could certainly be a liability in a general election in a state Trump carried just 48-45.
However, Democrats certainly won't be taking McSally for granted. The congresswoman has a reputation for being a strong fundraiser, and she wasted no time reminding voters that she was the Air Force's first female combat pilot. The GOP nominee will likely take on Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who currently faces no significant opposition in the Democratic primary.
And McSally further tried to solidify her pro-Trump credentials hours after her campaign kickoff. When MSNBC reporter Garrett Haake asked the congresswoman to comment on Donald Trump reportedly asking why America should accept immigrants from "shithole countries" like Haiti, she didn't even quarter-heartedly call Trump's comments "unfortunate" or something like that. Instead, she said:
"Well, let me just say I've spoken a little salty behind closed doors as well so I'm not going to throw the first stone on using any language. I guess there was a dispute as to what was actually said, and look, I don't think we should be having any comments about specific countries personally, but the issue I think that he's trying to get to is we got to reform our immigration system. That this lottery system doesn't make any sense."
And indeed, McSally isn’t lying about having “spoken a little salty behind closed doors,” since last spring when Republicans were trying to pass their horribly unpopular healthcare bill, McSally encouraged her colleagues to “get this fucking thing done!” A real profile in political courage, for all the wrong reasons.
Meanwhile, One potential GOP candidate also took his name out of the running on Friday. Arizona Board of Regents member Jay Heiler, a wealthy ally of former Gov. Jan Brewer, had formed an exploratory committee at the end of October, but he said Friday that he was backing McSally.
4Q Fundraising
Click here for our chart rounding up all Senate fundraising numbers. As per usual, we'll have a chart of House numbers after the reporting deadline, which is Jan. 31.
● PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $2.6 million raised. $8.6 million cash-on-hand; Lou Barletta (R): $530,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand
● WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): $2.8 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand
● CO-Gov: Mike Johnston (D): $260,000 raised
● IN-02: Mel Hall (D): $280,000 raised, additional $210,000 self-funded, $430,000 cash-on-hand
● TX-21: Chip Roy (R): $200,000 raised (in one month)
Senate
● MO-Sen: On behalf of the Democratic group The Majority Institute (formerly known as Project New America), PPP is out with a poll giving Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill a 45-44 edge over GOP Attorney General Josh Hawley. However, the horse race question was asked after a few other questions, including whether voters would prefer as their senator "someone who is independent and puts Missouri first, or someone who is loyal to Donald Trump and wants to promote his agenda?" (by a 64-28 margin, respondents pick option one). Those questions very well could have primed voters to respond more favorably to McCaskill than they otherwise might have.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: On Friday, Middletown Mayor Dan Drew dropped out of the Democratic primary for this open seat. While Drew began raising money months before Gov. Dan Malloy announced he wouldn't seek a third term, his campaign has been in bad financial shape for a while. At the end of December, Drew reported having just $8,000 on-hand and $16,000 in unpaid debt, so it's hardly a surprise he decided enough was enough.
● CO-Gov: In recent days, both, businessman Doug Robinson and wealthy former state Rep. Victor Mitchell each announced they would collect petitions to reach the June GOP primary rather than try to earn the support of enough delegates at the April party assembly to advance to the primary. Former Rep. Tom Tancredo has announced he will go through the assembly, while Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton haven't made a decision yet. As we've written before, both methods have risks.
● FL-Gov: After spending a few months flirting with an independent bid, wealthy left-leaning attorney John Morgan tweeted he wouldn't do it, adding, "Independents never win and only act as a spoiler." Democrats are trying to win their first gubernatorial race since Lawton Chiles was re-elected in 1994 of all years, and Morgan sitting the contest out is a big relief.
On the GOP side, House members are taking sides in the primary between Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, the more establishment-flavored candidate, and Rep. Ron DeSantis, who has Trump's endorsement. The National Journal writes that Putnam is backed by Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart, and Tom Rooney (all three members served with Putnam before he left the House in early 2011), while only Rep. Brian Mast has endorsed DeSantis so far. However, Rep. Matt Gaetz very much is not with Team Putnam, and he says he's deciding between DeSantis and state House Speaker Richard Corcoran, who has not entered the race yet.
● OH-Gov: On Friday, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley confirmed that she was exiting the May Democratic primary and endorsing former state Attorney General Richard Cordray. A few days before, former Rep. Betty Sutton had also left the primary to become Cordray's running mate. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni and former state Rep. Connie Pillich are still running, as are two party gadflies, former Rep. Dennis Kucinich and outgoing Ohio Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill. Cordray looks like the clear primary front-runner, but there have been no publicly released polls.
● WI-Gov: On behalf of state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, PPP is out with a January poll of the August Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Scott Walker:
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers: 29
State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout: 11
Madison Mayor Paul Soglin: 10
Former party chair Matt Flynn: 5
Government reform activist Mike McCabe: 5
Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell: 5
State Rep. Dana Wachs: 4
Former state Rep. Kelda Roys: 2
Businessman Andy Gronik: 2
This is the first poll of the primary we've seen.
House
● AK-AL: On Thursday, Anchorage schools advocate Alyse Galvin announced that she would run in the August Democratic primary to challenge GOP Rep. Don Young, even though she identifies as an independent. Galvin is able to do this because last year, a judge sided with the state Democratic Party and ruled that independents may run in Democratic primaries, though the state is appealing the decision.
Galvin has led what the Anchorage Daily News' Nathaniel Herz describes as a "loosely knit advocacy group" called Great Alaska Schools that advocates for more school funding. While Galvin isn't a Democrat, she says the state party is "cooperating" with her on the campaign. Galvin's husband, Pat Galvin, is also an executive at an independent oil company and a life-long Democrat, so she may have some good political and financial connections. No other noteworthy candidates have announced bids for the Democratic nod.
Beating Young will certainly be a huge challenge. Young, who is now the longest serving-member of the House, has been good about getting federal money to a state that's very dependent on it, and he's usually won re-election by double digits. However, there are plenty of voters who have gotten tired of him after 45 years in office. In 2014, Young endangered his own re-election campaign after he appeared at an assembly at Wasilla High School and made some incredibly offensive comments about a local student's recent suicide. Young ended up beating his unheralded Democratic foe 51-41, a huge drop from his 64-29 win two years before.
Democrats were better prepared in 2016, and challenger Steve Lindbeck ran a commercial featuring a friend of the deceased student blasting Young's behavior. However, Young ended up winning 50-36, an almost identical margin to Trump's 51-37 victory over Clinton. Young announced in April he would seek yet another term.
One of Team Blue's big challenges has been that, while Young only took a bare majority in his last two contests, plenty of anti-Young votes have gone to independent candidates. And despite all his problems, Young's ability to secure needed appropriations has also given him a strong base of support in heavily Native American areas. For instance, while Hillary Clinton took 54 percent of the vote in state House District 40 in the rural northern edge of the state, Young won 59 percent there. Galvin will need a lot to go right if she wants to do what no one else has successfully done over the last several decades, but a good political climate and Young's unpredictability could make things interesting.
● CA-39: On Thursday, Mt. San Antonio College trustee Jay Chen filed with the FEC for this open seat. Chen doesn't appear to have announced he was in, but he took part in a Democratic candidates debate on Wednesday, so it's safe to say he's running. Chen was the Democratic nominee against GOP Rep. Ed Royce in 2012 in a race that didn't attract much national attention. Chen lost 58-42 as Romney was winning 51-47 here, but he raised close to $600,000 for the effort and self-funded almost another $200,000.
Chen is the first noteworthy Democrat to announce since Royce decided to retire on Monday. While close to two-thirds of this seat is in Orange County, Chen is from the Los Angeles County part of the district. That portion only makes up about a quarter of the seat (the balance is in San Bernardino County), but if he can do well there while his opponents split the Orange County vote, he could advance through the crowded June top-two primary. Clinton carried this seat 51-43, and both parties will be fighting hard to win it.
● FL-07: Vennia Francois, who served as a policy advisor to then-Sens. Mel Martinez and George LeMieux, announced on Thursday that she would seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy. Murphy beat longtime GOP Rep. John Mica, who ran what can generously be described as a listless campaign, by a 51.5-48.5 margin as this suburban Orlando seat went from an extremely narrow Obama win to 51-44 Clinton. Republicans have vowed to get it back, and state Rep. Mike Miller looks like the primary frontrunner; businessman Scott Sturgill, who has been doing some self-funding, is also in.
● IL-03: The Illinois AFL-CIO has thrown its support behind Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski in his March primary against businesswoman Marie Newman.
● MI-13: Greg Mathis, a former local judge-turned-reality TV judge, announced Friday that he would not run in the Democratic primary for this safely open seat.
● MS-03: The GOP primary for this conservative open central Mississippi seat is slowly taking shape. Michael Guest, who serves as district attorney of Madison and Rankin Counties, still has the field to himself, but the Clarion Ledger writes that Whit Hughes, the president of the Baptist Health Foundation, is close to announcing. Hughes was part of the Mississippi State basketball team that went to the Final Four in 1996, which they say "shows the deep connections he has to Bully Bloc, the powerful MSU fundraising PAC."
The paper also says that Rhonda Keenum, a lobbyist who worked in multiple positions under George W. Bush, is seriously considering. Keenum's husband, Mark Keenum, is the president of Mississippi State University, which is in this seat. They also add state Rep. William Shirley to the list of possible GOP candidates, but there's no word about how interested he is. However, while there was plenty of speculation that state Treasurer Lynn Fitch could run, her office said she wouldn't do it. The candidate filing deadline is in early March.
● NM-01: In an unusual move, the Congressional Black Caucus has endorsed former state Democratic Party Chair Debra Haaland, who would be the first Native American woman elected to the House, in this safely blue Albuquerque seat. While it it’s very unusual for the CBC to endorse non-black candidates in primaries who aren’t already incumbents, it isn’t unheard of. A reader reminds us that in 2016 alone, they backed Ruben Kihuen in the NV-04 primary, and Patrick Murphy in the Florida Senate contest.
However, as New York Rep. and CBC chair Gregory Meeks explained, "When you look at the African-American community and you look at her story it's somewhat similar. She's a single mother but fought her way through law school and has always been involved in organizing people." Haaland faces a number of opponents in the June primary.
● PA-01: Rich Lazer, who serves as Philadelphia deputy mayor of labor and has been described as Mayor Jim Kenney's "right-hand man," said Wednesday that he was considering a bid for this safely blue seat. Rep. Bob Brady is the subject of an FBI corruption investigation, and he's already attracted a few challengers in the May Democratic primary. However, local insiders and Brady himself have suggested that Lazer isn't actually interested in replacing Brady by beating him at the polls.
Brady told City & State that he "talked to the mayor and Rich awhile ago and he said he would not run against me." Other political operatives also suggested to the Philadelphia Inquirer that they doubted Lazer would run without Brady's permission. One even suggested that Brady could run and win the Democratic primary, then drop out and arrange for the Philadelphia Democratic Party (which the congressman chairs) to pick Lazer as the new nominee. Lazer himself said his decision isn't dependent on what Brady does. However, he notably didn't make a case for why voters should oust Brady. Instead, Lazer said that he'd "lived in the district my whole life and I'm committed to public service."
However, not everyone agrees that Lazer would just be a stalking horse for Brady. Some sources suggested to City & State that, while Kenney is currently supporting the incumbent, he could support Lazer as revenge against Brady for not backing him in the 2015 mayoral primary. Lazer is also close to labor groups, and he could be a formidable candidate in his own right. Pennsylvania's candidate filing deadline is in early March.
● PA-18: How little do national Republicans think about state Rep. Rick Saccone's campaign skills in this 58-39 Trump seat? Politico's Alex Isenstadt writes that on Tuesday, White House political director Bill Stepien told him he wasn't raising enough money ahead of the March 13 special election. Saccone hasn't released his totals from the last quarter of 2017, but it would be a surprise if he wasn't a weak fundraiser: Saccone spent much of last year running for the Senate and he amassed just a $52,000 war-chest.
However, while Republicans have privately griped that Saccone could lose it all in a western Pennsylvania seat that shouldn't be vulnerable, Team Red is hoping that by preparing early, they can still put this one away before it becomes a crisis. Mike Pence was already planning to campaign here, and Trump himself is scheduled to journey to this district in the next few days. While Trump's visit is ostensibly official business, it would be out of character if he didn't praise Saccone, and even more out of character if he didn't take shots at Democrat Connor Lamb.
Conservative groups have also already sprung into action. Ending Spending, which is largely funded by the billionaire Ricketts family, recently began a $1 million buy for Saccone. The pro-Trump 45Committee has also launched a $500,000 TV, radio, and digital buy. Their ad argues that Lamb would have voted with Nancy Pelosi against the GOP's tax bill, but Saccone supports it because he's just that awesome.
● SD-AL: Back in September, state Sen. Neal Tapio said he was interested in joining the GOP primary for this open seat. Tapio said on Thursday that, while he wasn't announcing anything yet, "I would consider myself a likely candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in the near future," and that he'd make his plans known in a few weeks. Tapio said months ago that he'd self-fund $300,000 if he joined the race, and pitched himself as "President Trump's staunchest supporter." For the last year, the June primary has been a duel between former Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson, who has the support of Gov. Dennis Daugaard, and Secretary of State Shantel Krebs.
● TX Redistricting: On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court announced it would hear a case over whether the congressional and state House districts that Texas Republicans passed are discriminatory based on race. Back in 2017, a lower court panel struck down both maps for intentionally violating the rights of black and Latino voters by racially gerrymandering them into districts designed to prevent them from electing their preferred candidates, in some cases saying the districts were drawn "to ensure Anglo [white] control." These maps resulted in fewer black and Latino representatives, consequently costing Democrats seats to the benefit of the GOP. Republicans appealed both rulings to the Supreme Court, which stayed the lower court's rulings in the meantime.
As we have previously explained at length, this litigation has absurdly been ongoing since 2011, letting Texas Republicans get away with these discriminatory maps for at least three election cycles this decade. And unfortunately, even if the plaintiffs prevail, the upcoming Supreme Court case probably will not unfold swiftly enough for new maps to be used in the 2018 elections. Furthermore, the lower court's rulings themselves fell far short of what the plaintiffs had hoped. Thus, it's uncertain whether they can obtain a more favorable outcome affecting a greater number of districts even if the Supreme Court rules against the GOP.
However, this case could see the court issue an even firmer principle regarding the acceptable and impermissible uses of race in the redistricting process. Even if this doesn't lead to new maps in 2018, a plaintiff victory could make it much easier and faster in the future to challenge similar racial gerrymanders across America. That would be a major development in the 2020s round of redistricting, because nearly every single Southern state could have drawn another congressional district for black or Latino voters in the 2010s round of redistricting, yet chose not to.
Just as with Texas, courts have invalidated several GOP-drawn Southern congressional and legislative maps over race since 2010, but it has taken years of elections under unfair lines to secure such legal victories. And since the courts can't negate the outcome of elections from years past, the old maxim is squarely on point: Justice delayed is justice denied.
