This isn't good: Bridge Magazine's Joel Kurth reports that Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit Health Commissioner who is seeking Michigan's Democratic nomination for governor, may not be eligible to run in the first place. Kurth notes that Michigan's constitution "requires gubernatorial candidates be a 'registered elector in this state' for four years before the general election," a criteria that El-Sayed doesn't appear to meet. ("Elector" is just a fancy word for "voter.")
That's because El-Sayed was registered to vote in New York City as recently as March 2015, and he did not re-register in Michigan—the state where he was born, raised, and educated—until March of the following year. El-Sayed's campaign insists that he is indeed eligible, claiming he's maintained a "continuous residence" in the state, though that doesn't appear to have anything to do with his voter registration status. El-Sayed was "continuously registered to vote in Michigan since 2003," according to a state elections official, but it doesn't seem like that will help him.
That's because El-Sayed's registration had been placed on what's known as a "cancellation countdown," since he'd surrendered his Michigan driver's license to obtain one in New York. Had two election cycles passed, El-Sayed's registration would have been scrubbed from the rolls, and had he tried to vote while on "countdown," he would have been required to verify his address and affirm his eligibility to vote.
Making matters worse, when El-Sayed, a vocal supporter of Bernie Sanders, was asked last year why he didn't vote in Michigan's presidential primary, he claimed that he tried to "several times" but was deterred by long voting lines in Detroit. However, records show he simply hadn't registered to vote in the city until two weeks after the primary, and still maintained his registration in Ann Arbor (the one that was on "countdown"). El-Sayed insisted on Tuesday that had he made it to the polls, he’d either have been given a provisional ballot or been sent to Ann Arbor (a city about an hour to the west), but if he knew he was registered in Ann Arbor, why did he try to vote in Detroit in the first place?
Five of six election lawyers consulted by Kurth say that El-Sayed's candidacy is in serious jeopardy, and one even described the case against him as a "slam dunk." (Only one dissented, citing El-Sayed’s uncancelled registration and the apartment he maintained in Ann Arbor.) El-Sayed's campaign claims that their own attorneys have given their candidate a clean bill of health, but as Kurth dryly notes, "The campaign would not name the lawyers."
And El-Sayed's own reaction is revealing as well. He immediately compared the questions about his eligibility to the conspiracy theories surrounding Barack Obama's birth certificate, and his campaign issued a statement accusing "insider Democrats" of "using Trump's birther tactics." The fact that he feels his best response is to kick up sand and hurl insults doesn't speak well of his position. (And for what it's worth, Bridge is published by an outfit called the Center for Michigan, which bills itself as a nonpartisan think-tank.)
If El-Sayed is booted from the ballot (something that might take a lawsuit), that would leave just former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and businessman Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary. Democratic pollster Ed Sarpolous noted, though, that Whitmer might be reluctant to challenge El-Sayed’s eligibility lest she alienate his supporters, while Republicans would only want to do so if El-Sayed won the primary.
And if he is forced out, it's hard to say how an El-Sayed departure might affect the race. Whitmer has posted wide leads in the last few polls (none of which were recent), while Thanedar has barely registered (he has since started advertising on TV, however). El-Sayed, who is hoping to become the country’s first Muslim governor, was far behind Whitmer, too, though, so he doesn't have a whole lot of support to divvy up. In any event, it's likely going to be a while before we get more clarity here, since a challenge may not even be possible until El-Sayed files for the primary ballot, which he has until April 24 to do.