The GOP field for New Jersey’s ancestrally red 11th District is starting to take shape following longtime Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s surprise retirement announcement on Monday. State and national Democrats had already consolidated behind former federal prosecutor and Navy veteran Mikie Sherrill before Frelinghuysen hit the eject button, and she remains the likely nominee. For the GOP, though, it may be a while before things come into focus, as the filing deadline for the early June primary is not until April 2. This seat backed Trump just 49-48, and both parties will fight hard to win it in November.
Before we dive in, there’s an important backdrop to be aware of. In New Jersey primaries on both sides of the aisle, county party endorsements are typically very important. That's because endorsed candidates appear in a separate column on the ballot along with other party endorsees, a big deal in a state where party machines are still powerful. (This designation is known colloquially as the “organization line.”) However, things are a bit more complicated in the 11th.
Funnily enough, some important details about the race come from a seemingly unexpected source whose name you've heard of: David Wildstein, the former Port Authority official who pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges during the Bridgegate scandal but avoided jail time by cooperating with prosecutors. Before Wildstein got busy causing traffic problems in Fort Lee, however, he was better known by the pseudonym Wally Edge, under which he published the local news website PolitickerNJ. Lately, he's gotten back in the game, and he says that, while Morris County should make up about 60 percent of the GOP primary vote, it has no organization line.
However, Essex County Republican Committee Chairman Al Barlas and Passaic County GOP power broker Peter Murphy are close allies, and their two counties combined are expected to make up roughly one-third of the GOP vote. (The balance is in Sussex, which also has no line.) If Barlas and Murphy settle on a candidate while the Morris vote is split, their choice will be tough to stop in the primary.
With all that said, no noteworthy Republicans have announced they're in just yet, though two have formed exploratory committees. Longtime state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (known as "Jersey Joe" after he ran radio ads with the slogan, "Hey Ho, Hey Ho, It’s Jersey Joe Pennacchio") says he'll decide in the next few weeks, while allies of businessman Joe Caruso say he'll make up his mind in the next two weeks.
Pennacchio, whose seat is mostly located in Morris County, has been in the legislature since 2001. He ran in the primary in 2008 to take on Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg, but he drew some very bad headlines after his 1991 manifesto, titled The Nationalist Agenda: A Blueprint for the 21st Century, was unearthed.
The pamphlet called for setting up a new party called "The Nationalist Party," and Pennachio laid out its agenda very clearly. Among other things, this party called for placing homeless people in military camps; freezing Social Security and Medicare benefit rates for a year ("We cannot keep feeding our seniors 72 percent of the entitlement pie while the rest of the citizenship looks on in hunger," Jersey Joe explained); and disturbing the abortion drug RU-486 to supposedly eliminate the need for surgical abortions, even though it had not yet been approved for use in the U.S. National Republicans, knowing this smelled like fascism, did not want Pennacchio as their nominee even for a longshot race, and they were relieved when former Rep. Dick Zimmer beat him 46-40.
So, how do local party leaders feel about having Pennacchio as their nominee this year? Insider NJ's Max Pizarro writes that Pennacchio actually has a chance to get the Passaic-Essex alliance on his side. (Shockingly, sounding like a crypto-fascist isn't the liability in GOP politics that it used to be.) If he has their support and does well in his home base of Morris, he'll be formidable come June. However, Wildstein believes the NRCC will still see The Nationalist Agenda as a deal-breaker, though who’s to say whether their opinion would carry much weight these days.
There are fewer details about Caruso, the other Republican who has started to gear up for a possible bid. Caruso’s only prior run for office ended in failure, when he ran for a seat in the state Assembly in 2009 and lost in the primary. However, Insider NJ says he’s wealthy and has "strong ties to Morris County from his business and political fundraising efforts."
Naturally, a number of other Republicans are publicly or privately eyeing this seat. While there were reports that state Sen. Kristin Corrado didn't want to run, she said Wednesday that she is considering. However, Corrado said that if she passes, she wants Essex GOP Chair Al Barlas to get in. Wildstein also describes Corrado as a close ally of Barlas and Murphy, the Essex and Passaic bigshots.
Pizarro also reports that Kate Whitman Annis, who works at a New Jersey prep school and is the daughter of former Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, is likewise thinking about running, though there's no quote from her directly. The younger Whitman ran for the House in the 7th District back in 2008 and lost the primary 39-20 to now-Rep. Leonard Lance. Whitman’s mother has become a noted Trump critic, which could help her in a general election but would be a major liability in a primary.
Meanwhile, Republican National Committeeman Bill Palatucci reportedly has been trying to gauge support for Morris County Freeholder Christine Myers; some Republicans are eager to field a woman in the general election and think she fits the bill.
Assemblyman Jay Webber reportedly is also interested, and Wildstein says he's popular in Morris and has strong fundraising ties to national conservative groups. However, Politico's Matt Friedman wrote on Monday that it's unlikely that Webber and Pennacchio would run against each other. Both men represent the same district in the legislature (each senator is paired with two assemblymembers in the same seat), and Pizarro suggests that Pennacchio also has something he can offer both Webber and Barlas, the Essex GOP chair: If Pennacchio is elected to Congress, Webber could be appointed to his Senate seat (there would be no special election), and Barlas would have a huge say on who would in turn get Webber's seat.
There's also been some chatter that wealthy businessman Tim Smith or car dealer Paul Miller could run, too, and former Morris County Freeholder John Murphy is getting some attention as well. Murphy, a longtime nemesis of former Gov. Chris Christie, carried Morris in the 2005 gubernatorial primary (which Christie won), even though he managed to take just 11 percent statewide, but he's been out of office for a while. Meanwhile, Montclair Township Council member Bill Hurlock gave a rambling answer to The Montclair Times about his own level of interest: "Personally, for myself, if I were fortunate enough to have the opportunity, and I would never rule a chance to serve the public, but I have two-and-half years left on my council term. And the residents of the First Ward are what I am focused on." So … not a no.
Finally (deep breath!) while state Assemblyman Anthony Bucco expressed interest on Monday, he later sent out an invitation for a fundraiser for his 2019 re-election campaign to the legislature, which Wildstein takes as a pretty definitive sign he won't run for Congress. Of course, plans can always change.