The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OH-Sen: In a complete surprise, Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel announced on Friday that he was dropping his bid for the GOP nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Mandel said he "recently learned that my wife has a health issue that will require my time, attention and presence," and that it "has become clear to us that it's no longer possible for me to be away from home and on the campaign trail for the time needed to run a US Senate race." Ohio Republicans reportedly had no advance notice about Mandel's decision.
Campaign Action
Mandel lost the 2012 race to Brown 51-45 and never really stopped running, and he announced in December of 2016 that he would seek a rematch. Mandel has made his share of enemies in the Ohio GOP, but he scared away many of his would-be foes. The only notable Republican who also kicked off a bid was businessman Mike Gibbons, who has used his personal wealth to run some ads, but largely remained unknown. Gibbons had loaned his campaign $570,000 by the end of September and $638,000 in the bank.
Mandel's decision comes a month before Ohio's Feb. 7 candidate filing deadline, so potential candidates have little time to decide what to do. Brown is likely to be a top GOP target no matter what, but prospective candidates don't have too much time to build up a campaign that can be ready for the May primary. However, Ohio has a very deep bench of Republicans, so it's unlikely Gibbons will have the field to himself. Gibbons, who is enjoying his time as the only noteworthy GOP candidate, said Friday he'd put another $5 million of his own money into his bid "if needed."
Indeed, it did not take long for Republicans to start expressing interest. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor looks like the clear underdog in the GOP primary to succeed her ally, termed-out Gov. John Kasich, so it wasn't a surprise when her spokesperson confirmed she "would certainly" consider a Senate bid. However, a Taylor spokesperson later said on Saturday that Taylor would stay in the race for governor. Wealthy Rep. Jim Renacci is also running for governor, and he's been pitching himself as the Trumpiest candidate in that race, but Renacci is also considering making a switch, and his senior advisor said he'd "make a final decision this weekend."
Reporters also name-dropped plenty of people. The guy getting the most attention is probably J.D. Vance, who wrote the best-selling 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy. Vance, whose book discussed growing up poor in working-class Appalachia, said in September that he had seriously considered a Senate run but would stay out. Other people mentioned for this seat are Rep. Jim Jordon, a former leader of the far-right House Freedom Caucus; Rep. David Joyce; state Sen. Matt Dolan; state Sen. Matt Huffman, who considered running last year; state party chair Jane Timken; and Majestic Steel CEO Todd Leebow, who lost his courtside seat during game four of the NBA Finals last year after yelling at a Golden State Warriors player. It's unclear how interested any of them are right now.
There are a few big names who have said no. While chatter immediately began that Kasich could run, his chief strategist John Weaver immediately shot the idea down. However, Kasich's allies are hoping to persuade him to get in, though there's no indication he's receptive. Rep. Pat Tiberi had considered running but announced he'd stay out in the spring, and his office says he won't change his mind. (Tiberi is set to resign from the House this month to lead a business group.) Secretary of State Jon Husted dropped his campaign for governor in late November to become Attorney General Mike DeWine's running mate, and he says he's not going anywhere.
4Q Fundraising
Click here for our chart rounding up all Senate fundraising numbers. As per usual, we'll have a chart of House numbers after the reporting deadline, which is Jan. 31.
● IA-Gov: Ross Wilburn (D): $6,000 raised (in 2017, including $1,000 self-funded), $56 cash-on-hand (no, that isn’t missing any zeroes)
● SD-Gov: Marty Jackley (R): $1 million raised (in 2017)
● CA-49: Paul Kerr (D): $500,000 raised (including "a substantial donation to his [own] campaign")
● NY-19: Gareth Rhodes (D): $150,000 raised
● TX-05: Bunni Pounds (R): $200,000 raised (in 33 days)
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov, CA-Sen: On Friday, ex-Rep. Doug Ose, a Republican who represented part of the Sacramento suburbs over a decade ago, announced he would run for governor. Ose served three terms in the House until he voluntarily bowed to term limits and retired in 2004 (his sister unsuccessfully ran to succeed him), but he made two failed bids over the next ten years to return. In 2008, Ose ran for a neighboring open seat, but lost the primary to eventual winner Tom McClintock 53-39. Ose ran again in 2014 against Democratic Rep. Ami Bera for a swing seat and lost the most expensive House contest of the year 50.4-49.6. Ose used to have a reputation as a moderate, which contributed to his loss to McClintock, but he's reinvented himself as a Donald Trump ally.
Ose and any other Republicans face long odds in a blue state where outgoing Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is popular and Trump most assuredly is not, but he could impact the race. Republicans are worried that two Democrats will take the most votes in the June top-two primary and lock them out of the general election, which could harm conservative turnout in more winnable races. Businessman John Cox and Assemblyman Travis Allen were both already running, and Ose could further split the GOP vote in June and make it easier for two Democrats to advance. However, Democrats have a crowded field of their own between Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has led in every poll; ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and state Treasurer John Chiang. Former state Superintendent of Public Education Delaine Eastin is also running, but she's been out of office since 2003 and has raised little money.
Meanwhile, after over a year of flirting with a Democratic bid for statewide office, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer will be making "announcement regarding his political future and plans for 2018." Steyer's announcement will be made in D.C. instead of California, so it's pretty unlikely he'll be kicking off a bid for governor or Senate.
● FL-Gov: On Friday, GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis finally announced his long planned bid for governor of Florida. DeSantis' allied PAC has been raising money for a campaign for months, and Donald Trump ended any ambiguity about the congressman's plans just before Christmas when he endorsed DeSantis over Twitter.
DeSantis' main opponent in the late August primary is likely to be state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who has been raising money for years to run to succeed termed-out Gov. Rick Scott. Putnam tried to tie himself to Trump in the early days of the campaign, but he's switched tactics a bit since then and is portraying the contest as a choice between a local Floridian and a D.C. insider. Putnam's campaign declared that, while he announced his own bid at his hometown in Bartow, "Washington insider Ron DeSantis wore a freshly pressed and tailored suit in an empty television studio this morning to inform broadcasters in New York of his intent to seek a promotion."
However, Putnam certainly knows he's particularly vulnerable to being tagged as a dreaded political insider. Putnam won his first race in 1996 at the age of 22, and he's held elected office ever since. Putnam was even in the House leadership for a time, and DeSantis and his allies may try tagging him as the real D.C. insider.
DeSantis hasn't hesitated to try to take advantage of his own national profile and connections. After he served as a Navy JAG officer, DeSantis became a conservative author who managed to get in quite a few appearances on Fox News. DeSantis used his minor celebrity status to jumpstart his successful 2012 bid for a House seat south of Jacksonville, and he's continued to appear on Fox parroting far-right talking points and defending Trump. DeSantis' presence on national TV not only helped him earn Trump's affection and endorsement, it's brought him into contact with conservative billionaires who like what they're hearing from him. And sure enough, DeSantis launched his campaign on Fox & Friends.
DeSantis' alliance with Trump and his long history of far-right rhetoric should be an asset in the primary, but it could be a huge liability in a general election. Trump did narrowly carry Florida, but if he's unpopular here in November, it would be very easy for Democrats to tie DeSantis to the White House. DeSantis, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, also has plenty of extremist statements and votes that may play great to primary voters but poorly to a general electorate.
Last cycle, Senate Republicans also sounded wary about having DeSantis as their nominee. DeSantis was one of several Republicans who kicked off bids to succeed Marco Rubio while he was running for president. However, after Rubio's own campaign went bust, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his allies spent months convincing the initially reluctant senator to seek re-election anyway. Reportedly, GOP strategists and Senate Republicans felt that the crop of candidates running to succeed Rubio was weak, and while Rubio was still bruised from his recent losses, they felt he'd be a manifestly better nominee. Both Rubio and DeSantis ended up running for re-election to their current seats that year and winning.
● MD-Gov, MD-07: On Friday, consulting firm head Maya Rockeymoore Cummings announced she was suspending her bid for the Democratic nomination to face GOP Gov. Larry Hogan due to "personal considerations." Cummings' statement didn't address the possibility that she could get back in the race: Maryland's filing deadline is Feb. 27, so we'll know who is and isn't running soon enough. Cummings didn't say what her personal considerations were, but Politico's Daniel Strauss relays that part of her decision was due to issues with the health of her husband, Rep. Elijah Cummings. Later that day, Rep. Cummings' office put out a statement saying he had been admitted to the hospital because of a "bacterial infection in his knee," and had undergone a minor procedure.
● NY-Gov: When we last heard from businessman Carl Paladino over the summer, the obnoxious 2010 GOP nominee had been kicked off the Buffalo School Board. No, it wasn't because he said that he hoped that Barack Obama would die of mad cow disease and that Michelle Obama would "return to being a male." Instead, it was because Paladino published details from close-door negotiations over teacher contracts.
Unsurprisingly, Paladino's 62-33 loss to Democrat Andrew Cuomo during the 2010 GOP wave also hasn't dissuaded him from considering another bid against that same Andrew Cuomo. Paladino recently put out a statement saying he was indeed thinking about a rematch, but was in no hurry to decide. Paladino was in a hurry to torch the state GOP leadership, though. He argued the state party was "in shambles," declaring, "They have no financial or other resource ability. The Albany swamp Republican legislators and many county chairs are all RINOs in Cuomo's pocket."
House
● FL-06: While GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis only made his bid for governor official on Friday, Republicans have had plenty of time to mull over bids for this Daytona-area 57-40 Trump seat, and Florida Politics' Phil Ammann names some Republicans he reports are privately considering the race. Navy veteran Brandon Patty, who used to work for former Gov. Jeb Bush, ran in 2016 while DeSantis was seeking the Senate seat. Patty's campaign didn't raise much money, but he earned Sen. Marco Rubio's support, and he was a good team player and dropped out for DeSantis. Businessman Michael Waltz, who served as a Green Beret commander and as a foreign policy adviser for former Vice President Dick Cheney, and St. Johns County Commissioner Jimmy Johns are also reportedly interested.
Two other noteworthy Republicans are already in. Back in October, businessman and Navy veteran John Ward announced he would seek the GOP nomination, and he pledged at the time that he'd have $1 million in the bank by the start of January. According to Ammann, Ward's early announcement very much annoyed DeSantis. Ex-state Rep. Fred Costello announced this month he would run here for the third time. Costello lost an open seat race to DeSantis 39-23, and he ran here while DeSantis was running for the Senate. While every other major candidate dropped out after DeSantis parachuted back into the race, Costello stayed in and got creamed 61-25.
This seat moved from 52-47 Romney to a brutal 57-40 Trump, but Democrats have an interesting candidate in Clinton-era Deputy National Security Advisor Nancy Soderberg, who has raised a credible amount of money so far.
● MI-13: Local judge-turned reality TV judge Greg Mathis' name recently surfaced as a possible Democratic candidate to succeed ex-Rep. John Conyers, and Mathis' spokesperson has confirmed he's interested and would announce his plans soon. Mathis has hosted the syndicated "Judge Mathis" reality-TV show for 19 seasons after stepping down from the bench, and his team says he'd leave the show if he runs for this safely blue Detroit-area seat.
A different well-known figure is also reportedly interested. ClickOnDetroit reporter Rod Meloni writes that, while Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon initially said he wouldn't run, he's reconsidering. We haven't heard anything directly from Napoleon or his team about his interest in the race. Napoleon ran for mayor of Detroit in 2013 and lost the open seat race to Mike Duggan 55-45. Napoleon had no trouble winning re-election in 2016, and he endorsed Duggan's own re-election campaign the next year.
● NV-04: When Democratic state Sen. Pat Spearman filed with the FEC on Tuesday, she said she was only "leaning like 99 percent" towards a bid in this competitive open seat. (Yes, we are sticklers.) But on Thursday, she told the Nevada Independent's Michelle Rindels that "[t]here shouldn't be any doubt" she's in, which is good enough for us to consider her the first notable Democrat to announce.
As we've written before, Spearman has a very interesting background. Spearman, a black and openly gay Army veteran and minister, made her first run for office in 2012 in a primary against state Sen. John Lee in a safely blue seat around North Las Vegas. Lee had angered progressives for years, including labor groups and environmentalists. However, he had the support of then-Sen. Harry Reid, who rarely doesn't get his way in Nevada Democratic primaries.
While progressive groups mobilized around Spearman, even Lee's detractors didn't think she had much of a shot at beating him. Lee outraised Spearman $200,000 to $13,000, and the Las Vegas Sun wrote that labor decided to stay neutral in the primary rather than aid Spearman in what they were convinced was a futile campaign. But in a shocker, Spearman didn't just win, she unseated Lee 63-37.
Spearman is very unlikely to have the primary to herself, but she does have some potential advantages. Spearman's entire seat is located in the 4th District. While it's quite common for Las Vegas-area politicians to hop between the area's congressional districts depending on the circumstances, it at least can't hurt to be a candidate with a local base of support. A large portion of the primary electorate is also black, which could help Spearman.
A few other Democrats are considering running to succeed Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen, a freshman who retired after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. Last month, neighboring Rep. Dina Titus said that University of Nevada Regent Allison Stephens was interested, and Stephens recently told Rindels that she is indeed considering. Ex-Rep. Steven Horsford, who served one term before narrowly losing during the 2014 GOP wave, has also expressed interest in a comeback.
Lee, who was elected mayor of North Las Vegas one year after Spearman beat him, is also talking about running, and he recently said that, while he's not ready to announce now, "I'm not letting any moss grow under my shoes." Lee did take the time to attack one of his potential primary rivals, but interestingly, it wasn't Spearman. Instead, Lee said he doesn't think that Horsford even lives in Nevada anymore, arguing that, "He's joined the lobby ranks. I think he's out of touch or lost touch with Nevada." Titus also recently torched her former colleague along the same lines and promoted Lee as a candidate. The filing deadline is in mid-March.
● OH-12: While Republicans are favored to keep this open 53-42 Trump seat in the Columbus suburbs, Democrats very much want to make a play for it. Ex-state Rep. Jay Goyal recently told the Columbus Dispatch that he is considering seeking the Democratic nomination and will decide "pretty shortly," and the paper says he "almost certainly would attract major support from major Democrats in central Ohio."
Goyal was first elected to a seat around Mansfield in 2006 and rose to become majority whip after Democrats won the chamber in 2008. In 2012, Goyal pulled the plug on his re-election campaign for a fourth term and returned full-time to his family business. A few other Democrats are running. The most notable candidate is former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, who has a very bad relationship with the local Columbus Democratic establishment.
On the other side, the Dispatch writes that Tim Kane, an Air Force veteran and economist at the conservative Hoover Institution in California and a frequent cable TV presence, is considering. Several other Republicans have already kicked off bids to succeed longtime GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, who is resigning Jan. 15, and there's no clear frontrunner.
Republican Gov. John Kasich has ordered that the special election be held on Aug. 7, preceded by a primary on May 8, which is the same day as Ohio's regularly scheduled primary. The filing deadline for candidates running under a party banner is Feb. 7, while independents have until May 7.
● PA-01: At the beginning of the month, former investment manager Lindy Li confirmed she would run against Rep. Bob Brady, who is under investigation by the FBI, in the Democratic primary for this safely blue Philadelphia seat. Brady already faces a challenge from former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Nina Ahmad, who says she's already self-funded $600,000, and he would benefit if they split the anti-Brady vote.
Li is only in her 20s, but this is the third Pennsylvania seat she's sought. Last cycle, Li initially ran in the suburban 7th District against GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, but she later switched to the neighboring 6th District. Li, however, failed to make the ballot after her primary foe successfully challenged her petition signatures. Still, she raised $600,000 for her bids and had $181,000 in leftover cash she could use against Brady, and she seems well-connected enough to raise more.
● PA-09: The field to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Shuster may include not one, but two men who almost unseated him in GOP primaries. Businessman Art Halvorson lost just 50.6-49.4 in 2016, and he wasted no time announcing he would run again. But in a real blast-from-the-past, businessman Michael DelGrosso, who lost to Shuster 51.3-48.7 in 2004, says he'll decide over the "coming weeks" if he wants to launch a bid for this safely red rural seat.
Then and now, DelGrosso's family owned an Altoona-area amusement park aptly named "DelGrosso's Amusement Park," as well as an Italian food business that puts on a local Italian Food and Heritage Festival.
He also benefited with anger at how Shuster first won his seat in a 2001 special election to succeed his father, longtime Rep. Bud Shuster. Under Pennsylvania special election law, a party convention picked the nominee for the special election, and they went with the younger Shuster: If Bud Shuster had just retired in 2002, there would have been a primary instead of an insider-run convention. During the 2004 campaign, a Shuster aide said he was hired to spy on DelGrosso. DelGrosso argued that it was time for new blood, but he fell just short.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: On Thursday, former New Jersey Gov. Brendan Byrne, a Democrat who was elected in 1973 and 1977, died at the age of 93. Byrne got his start in politics in 1955 working for Gov. Robert Meyner, and he quickly rose to become his executive secretary, the equivalent of his chief of staff. Meyner named Byrne prosecutor for Essex County, where he devoted much of his time to investigating organized crime. One of the mobsters Byrne prosecuted, Simone "Sam the Plumber" DeCavalcante, was recorded in an FBI wiretap calling him a "Boy Scout" and saying, "You can't get to him. He can't be bought."
In 1973, as the Watergate scandal was unfolding, Byrne made good use of DeCavalcante's words as he campaigned for governor. Byrne decisively won the primary and the general election, but he soon ran into problems. Byrne always had a bad relationship with the Democratic legislature, and despite pledging not to raise taxes, Byrne created New Jersey's first income tax after the state Supreme Court ruled that the state wasn't providing adequate education funding. Byrne became incredibly unpopular (a poll months before he was re-elected gave him a 17 percent approval rating) and earned the nickname "one-term Byrne."
However, Byrne remarkably managed to win both renomination and re-election in 1977. Byrne hinted he wouldn't run again and encouraged other Democrats to get in the primary. He only earned 30 percent of the vote, with Rep. Robert Roe in second with 23 percent, but that was enough for a plurality. (Then-Rep. and future Gov. Jim Florio was in fourth with 15.)
Polls initially showed Byrne trailing state Sen. Raymond Bateman, who got through his own tough primary, by as much as 10 points, but Byrne scored points by saying that Bateman had no platform beyond opposing the income tax. Byrne also defended his tax in ads declaring, "Sometimes you have to admit you were wrong in order to do what's right," and he ended up winning 56-42. Byrne famously joked when he died, he wanted "to be buried in Hudson County so that I can remain active in politics."