Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Statehouse Action: Because there's more on the ballot on Nov. 6 than statewide and federal elections, check out our 2018 state legislative chamber ratings! We've got answers to all your burning questions.
- How many majorities will Democrats pick up? (Smart money's on five.)
- Where's Team Blue playing defense? (Not many places tbh.)
- Why aren't we talking about number of seats instead of chamber control? (Because your time is valuable and nationwide legislative seat-counting is a waste of it.)
You can read all about the Tossup and Lean ratings here, but there's a handy hexmap at the top of this post with all of our ratings.
Check out a full chart of these chamber ratings here.
Race Ratings Changes
● CT-Gov (Tossup to Lean D): While outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy's extreme unpopularity had threatened to undermine the entire Democratic ticket in Connecticut this year, it appears that the national political environment is overshadowing the local mood. Democrat Ned Lamont has led in every survey, including a recent Quinnipiac poll that put him up 47-39 over Republican Bob Stefanowski. Thanks to his personal wealth, Lamont has a large financial advantage. The RGA has helped make up the gap, spending $2 million so far with another $1 million in ad time reserved, but Lamont is now favored.
● FL-18 (Likely R to Lean R): Freshman GOP Rep. Brian Mast, an Army veteran who lost both legs in Afghanistan, is a tougher-than-usual opponent, but Democrats seem to sense an opportunity. The DCCC recently began advertising on behalf of former State Department official Lauren Baer, who trailed by just 3 points in two separate Democratic polls last month and raised $1.6 million in the third quarter.
This district moved in the GOP's direction in 2016, voting for Donald Trump 53-44 after going for Mitt Romney by a narrower 51-48 four years earlier, but Democrats held this seat for two terms prior to Mast's win, so there's at least a history of crossover voting in this area. A Baer victory would nonetheless be an upset, though: Mast still holds the edge.
● MI-11 (Tossup to Lean D): The only poll we've seen for this suburban Detroit seat, which backed Trump 50-45, gave Democrat Haley Stevens a 45-38 lead over Republican Lena Epstein. What may be more ominous for Team Red, though, is how little outside spending there's been boosting Epstein. Both the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have stayed away from this race, though the Trumpist super PAC America First Action has deployed $612,000 so far. However, that's still far less than the $2.5 million we've seen in support of Stevens. It's too early to write off Epstein, who has already self-funded millions, but her would-be allies aren't acting like she's in good shape here.
● MT-AL (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte should be able to take comfort from the fact that Montana backed Donald Trump by a wide 56-36 margin in 2016, but in last year's special election, he only beat a flawed opponent by a considerably narrower 50-44 spread. The state has also long been more open to supporting local Democrats below the presidential level, as evidenced by the fact that Sen. Jon Tester stands a good chance of winning re-election this year.
What's more, Gianforte's Democratic challenger Kathleen Williams raised a monster $2.1 million in the third quarter, so she'll have more than enough resources to get her message out in this relatively inexpensive state. Outside groups on both sides haven't gotten involved here, though Gianforte is personally wealthy and Williams can certainly hold her own. Gianforte is still favored to win a full term thanks to Montana's red lean, but an AARP survey last month conducted by a pair of pollsters (one Democratic, one Republican) found him up just 46-45, and no reliable outfits have released contradictory numbers.
● NM-02 (Lean R to Tossup): At 50-40 Trump, New Mexico's open 2nd District leans decidedly to the right, but 2018's election is a reminder that candidate quality is still important. Democrats have a fantastic nominee in water-rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small, who has run a strong race against hard-right Republican Yvette Herrell. Recent polls points to a tight contest, including even Herrell's own internal polling from the Tarrance Group, which had her up just 49-45. With outside groups from both national parties recently jumping into the contest with significant ad buys, this race now looks highly competitive.
3Q Fundraising
You can keep track of all the $1 million-plus House fundraising quarters announced so far right here. We'll have our usual House fundraising chart after Monday evening's deadline. And thanks to a new law that requires Senate candidates to file electronically, we'll also have a companion Senate chart.
O'Rourke's $38 million haul is the most money any Senate candidate has ever raised in one quarter. The previous record was held by New York Republican Rick Lazio, who raised $22 million in his unsuccessful 2000 bid against Hillary Clinton.
Senate
● FL-Sen: VoteVets is putting $4 million behind a TV ad that attacks Republican Gov. Rick Scott for not deserving to wear the Navy hat he's often seen in, with a Navy veteran named Alan Madison telling viewers of how Scott's hospital company "stole millions, defrauding the military's healthcare program." Madison relays how Scott pleaded the 5th Amendment and walked away with millions after cheating veterans, leaving Scott with a net worth of more than $200 million.
● MT-Sen: Protect Freedom PAC has made a $250,000 ad buy against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. There's no copy of any ad available yet.
● OH-Sen: In his first TV spot since June, Republican Rep. Jim Renacci attacks Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for trying to "destroy Judge Kavanaugh with unfounded claims," then, in an amazing bit of chutzpah, does the very thing he charges Brown with doing and cites uncorroborated records from Brown's 1986 divorce to accuse his opponent of domestic violence.
As we've explained previously, Renacci is just the latest Republican to cite an affidavit from Larke Recchie, Brown's then-wife, in which she claimed her husband had "bullied" and shoved her. Brown, however, has always denied that he'd ever been violent with Recchie, who's been a political supporter of his for decades. Indeed, Recchie has publicly defended Brown since his 1992 campaign for the House and did so again this last month, when a cynically named super PAC called "Me Too Ohio" attempted to resurface the allegations in a web video.
At the time, the Brown campaign quickly responded with its own video featuring Recchie, who declared, "Divorce can be difficult and ours was no different. But the political attacks against our family are just wrong." She added, "I understand politics can sometimes be nasty, but Jim Renacci should be ashamed."
The Plain Dealer says the Renacci campaign has reserved $489,000 to air its ad, while Me Too Ohio, which is airing a similar spot, will spend $200,000 to broadcast their ads in Cleveland over the next two weeks. But if Renacci and his allies sound desperate, there's a good reason. Renacci has badly trailed in almost every poll, and major GOP groups have avoided advertising here. He almost certainly needs something very big to change for him to have a chance against Brown, and he's hoping that this ad campaign will somehow give him the opening he needs, but dredging up this old story has never worked for any of Brown's past rivals.
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: Change Research (D) for David Garcia: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 44, Martha McSally (R): 44
- AZ-Sen: Latino Decisions (D) for Arizona State University: Sinema (D): 47, McSally (R): 41
- TN-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Marsha Blackburn (R): 54, Phil Bredesen (D): 40
- TX-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 51, Beto O'Rourke (D): 43
- WI-Sen: Marist for NBC: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 54, Leah Vukmir (R): 40 (July: 55-38 Baldwin)
This is by far the worst poll we've seen for Bredesen in many months, but he hasn't had a very good October so far. A Fox poll found Blackburn up 48-43, while YouGov gave her a 50-42 lead.
Cruz posted a similar 54-45 lead in the recent Quinnipiac poll, while YouGov had him up 50-44.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Democrat Andrew Gillum is up with a new spot starring five Florida sheriffs pushing back on recent GOP attempts to portray him as corrupt. The assembled group denounces Republican Ron DeSantis' attacks as "false" and "pathetic." The sheriffs then declare that as mayor of Tallahassee, Gillum "fought corruption" and say he's "working with law enforcement and the FBI to crack down on politicians who break the law." They also praise him for bringing the police and community together "to reduce violent crime by 24 percent."
● ME-Gov: Republican nominee Shawn Moody received unwelcome news on Friday, when the New York Times reported that he had settled a sex discrimination complaint in 2006 filed with the state Human Rights Commission by former employee Jill Hayward. Hayward had claimed that, when she was on maternity leave in 2005, Moody visited her apartment and told her she couldn't handle her job duties at his automobile repair store because she had recently become a single mother.
Moody ultimately settled the case for $20,000 in exchange for Hayward withdrawing her complaint, but she stood by her accusation when the New York Times investigated. However, Moody has so far refused to comment on her allegation, only claiming he had faced no other complains of that nature in his business career.
● MN-Gov: MPR's Brian Bakst reports that the RGA has canceled another week of their TV reservation, and they now have time booked for just the final week of the contest. Bakst adds that Republican Jeff Johnson has been on his own on TV apart from a small buy from the Freedom Club.
The RGA had reserved $2.3 million back in April when their preferred candidate, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, looked like he was well on his way to capturing the GOP nomination. However, an unnamed GOP operative told BuzzFeed in June that it was "likely" they'd cancel it if Johnson won the August primary, and it seems they weren't bluffing. Recent polls have given Democrat Tim Walz a clear lead, with Marist's early October poll finding him ahead by a 51-36 margin.
● OK-Gov: The DGA-backed group Stronger Oklahoma is attacking Republican Kevin Stitt with a new ad focusing on the controversies surrounding his company, Gateway Mortgage Group. The narrator first ties Stitt to the extremely unpopular outgoing GOP Gov. Mary Fallin, declaring that, "Even with Oklahoma schools in chaos, Kevin Stitt said Mary Fallin is 'great.'" He then says that "Stitt's company was ranked one of the 15 shadiest mortgage lenders," and that he "has been sued dozens of times, and suspended in multiple states."
As we wrote after Stitt won the GOP nomination, Gateway Mortgage Group has attracted scrutiny for its practices during the Great Recession. In 2008, Gateway faced allegations of fraud in three states and ended up paying fines to each while losing its license in Georgia. It was also penalized in five additional states in 2008 and 2009 for having lenders who weren't properly licensed. GOP primary foe Mick Cornett and his allies tried in vain to make Gateway an albatross for Stitt, and we'll see if Democrats are more successful.
The RGA is also up with another spot against Democrat Drew Edmondson, and they stick to their usual red state playbook in tying their foe to national Democrats like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi.
● TN-Gov: This race hasn't looked very appealing to Democrats since Bill Lee won the GOP nod in August, so it's a surprise to see the DGA going up with their first ad here.
The spot from the DGA's state affiliate, Stronger Tennessee, declares that several hospitals have closed in recent years, and Lee "opposes the solution to fix the problem." The narrator explains that a "common sense plan to expand Medicaid is supported by 63 percent of Tennesseans. Bill Lee says 'No,'" and that this means more hospitals will close and jobs will be lost. The ad concludes that Lee is playing politics while lives are at stake, and "[w]e need a governor who puts our health care first." There is no word on the size of the buy.
We recently moved this race from Likely to Safe Republican, noting that Lee has polled very well against Democrat Karl Dean. That hasn't changed over the last few weeks, but Lee did get plenty of headlines over the last few days for the wrong reasons. On Tuesday, The Tennessean reported that a state highway patrol trooper named Anthony Bull who was providing security for both candidates violated his nondisclosure agreement when he informed the Lee campaign last month that Dean was holding a "Muslim event."
According to a report from a highway patrol lieutenant, after Lee was told this he "stated immediately, 'I would love to have a photo of that,'" while a campaign staffer "jokingly" asked if a trooper could "take a photo for us." A different document from the department's internal investigation of the event said that the candidate "jokingly asked" Bull if he could take a picture of Dean at the event.
Bull also wrote a memo to a supervisor that the lieutenant had told him he "had heard a statement from the Bill Lee campaign stating that they wished they could get a picture of the other party inside a mosque." Dean's so-called "Muslim event" was not a religious gathering, and it was instead actually a meet-and-greet at a falafel restaurant in Knoxville.
Lee's campaign says he has "no recollection of the conversation being described in the report" and added that it "sounds like a miscommunication." It would certainly take a lot for this story to cost Lee victory in a state this red. However, the DGA's opening ad is at least a sign that national Democrats don't think Lee is a shoo-in.
● Polls:
- AZ-Gov: Change Research (D) for David Garcia: Doug Ducey (R-inc): 47, David Garcia (D): 40
- AZ-Gov: Latino Decisions (D) for Arizona State University: Ducey (R-inc): 45, Garcia (D): 40
- GA-Gov: University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Brian Kemp (R): 48, Stacy Abrams (D): 46, Ted Metz (L): 2 (Aug.: 45-45 tie)
- RI-Gov: SocialSphere for GoLocalProv: Gina Raimondo (D-inc): 40, Allan Fung (R): 32, Joe Trillo (I) 17 (June: Raimondo 33, Fung 33, Trillo 16)
- WI-Gov: Marist for NBC: Tony Evers (D): 50, Scott Walker (R-inc): 42 (July: 54-41 Evers)
Democrats released polls in September showing Garcia only down a few points in Arizona, but his campaign is now out with a survey giving him a 7-point deficit. A little surprisingly, the Latino Decision poll for ASU is better for Garcia than his own campaign's survey. Ducey and his allies have been outspending Democrats on TV by a 50-to-one margin, and major Democratic groups haven't come in to help Garcia, who has trailed by double digits in most polls. Early voting, which is popular in Arizona, began on Wednesday.
Almost every poll we've seen out of Georgia has shown a tight race. If no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff on Dec. 4.
Over in Rhode Island, SocialSphere has found conservative independent Trillo performing far better than he has in the few other polls we've seen. A recent Fleming and Associates poll found Raimondo leading Fung 43-36 with Trillo at 7, while the University of New Hampshire had Raimondo up 48-34 as Trillo took 5.
Marist's July poll raised plenty of eyebrows when it found Evers crushing Walker, and this new poll also finds him well ahead. The only other poll we've seen in October was from Marquette, which gave Walker a narrow 47-46 edge. In a welcome move, NBC actually posted some thoughts from Marist pollster Barbara Carvalho in which she tried to explain the big gulf between her outfit and Marquette, citing differences in methodology and sample composition. This is the kind of comparative analysis we'd love to see all pollsters do all the time.
House
● FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast's first TV ad attacking Democrat Lauren Baer over an op-ed she wrote in college went haywire after it turned out that the commercial's star, who said he was a retired New York City firefighter, was an actor who had been convicted of domestic battery by strangulation and aggravated battery causing great bodily harm. (USA Today wrote earlier this month that it was still trying to confirm he was a firefighter.) Mast pulled the ad and is trying again with a new spot that hits the same themes.
The new commercial stars a man identified as former NYPD officer John Napolitano. Napolitano tearfully tells the audience that his son John was a firefighter who died in in the 9/11 attacks at the same time that Baer "was writing a paper about our country's 'shameful history.' That this country would be more humane and more humble." Napolitano asks Baer what his son could have done to be more humane, declaring he's "proud of America's history, proud of my son, and proud of Brian Mast."
The Baer college op-ed both ads refer to was written not long after the attacks, and she argued that, "At the same time that America calls on the world to ardently preserve our sacred values, it must live up to a shameful history of having so rarely stood up for those values itself," adding that "the attacks on America were an attack on the world, but so are any attacks motivated by venom and hate, regardless of location, regardless of their scale." Baer's campaign criticized Mast for cherry-picking quotes from her article, especially since she went on to serve in the State Department. Florida Politics also notes that Baer in no way rebuked the first responders who were killed in the 9/11 attacks.
● FL-25: The Miami New Times reports that Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is the subject of a mortgage fraud investigation by the Miami-Dade County property appraiser's office, which is looking into whether the congressman fraudulently claimed a homestead exemption by designating both his D.C. condo and his Miami home as his primary residence for the purpose of obtaining better mortgage terms. The disclosure of the investigation comes after mortgage broker and local blogger Grant Stern recently published documents that he contends illustrate Diaz-Balart did in fact simultaneously claim both properties as his primary residence.
Diaz-Balart has disputed Stern's accusation, claiming that he only listed his Miami home as his primary residence, and he also released a statement from the Congressional Federal Credit Union, which gave him the mortgage, saying the loan was handled properly. However, when Politico reporter Marc Caputo attempted to follow up with the credit union, it refused to provide any further comment, even though Diaz-Balart had authorized it do so. It's unclear if the county's investigation will resolve before Election Day, and with little over three weeks left, this controversy will likely only have an impact if Diaz-Balart's Democratic opponent, Mary Barzee Flores, can successfully make it an issue.
● FL-27: Republican Maria Elvira Salazar recently launched a radio ad featuring praise from former right-wing Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, and he was not happy. Uribe, who served from 2002 to 2010, said he did not want to be used in an American political ad, and that he and his party were committed "to maintain respectful and bipartisan diplomatic relations, with the congressman and candidates in the United States, without any preference in elections."
Salazar is also out with a new TV spot that does not feature any former heads of state, but instead pitches her as an environmentalist. Salazar also calls for better jobs and safer schools, and concludes that "our environment, our community, and our children depend on it." Salazar has been pitching herself as a moderate in a seat that badly rejected Donald Trump two years ago.
● IL-06: GOP Rep. Peter Roskam's campaign says that the NRCC has committed $1.5 million to a new buy over the next few weeks, with $702,000 going up in the week of Oct. 15. Roll Call recently reported that Roskam and the NRCC launched a joint buy for about $688,000, which they split the costs on; it's not clear how much of the $1.5 million that Roskam says is coming his way went to that spot.
Unnamed GOP strategists recently told the New York Times that Roskam was one of several House members in bad shape who "must recover quickly or risk losing funding," and Roskam seems to be pushing back on any suggestion that the NRCC is thinking of giving up on him.
● IL-14: House Majority PAC, Priorities USA, and EMILY's List have announced a joint $340,000 digital buy against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.
● MN-01: The GOP continues to push the bounds of shamelessness in their attacks on Democrat Dan Feehan, with the NRCC devoting the entirety of their latest ad to blasting him as supposedly unpatriotic for supporting NFL player Colin Kaepernick's right to kneel in protest during the national anthem. The ad falsely implies that Kaepernick and those defending him support protesting the anthem itself, but Kaepernick is really protesting police brutality against unarmed black people. The commercial accuses Feehan of disrespecting veterans without ever acknowledging that Feehan himself is an Army veteran who was awarded the Bronze Star for his valor.
Meanwhile, Feehan recently went up with a response ad to another Republican attack on his patriotism. The ad features retired Army Maj. Brad Hanson excoriating Republican Jim Hagedorn, whom he disparages as "career politician who has not served," for disrespecting Feehan's military service, with the ad noting that Feehan was in Iraq while Hagedorn worked as a "D.C. bureaucrat."
● MN-03: Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen is up with a new ad that, citing a 2007 lawsuit that was settled out of court, argues that Democrat Dean Phillip ignored sexual harassment allegations while he served as chair of Allina Health Care. The spot drew a rebuke from Lori Peterson, an attorney who represented seven women who filed that lawsuit.
Peterson released a statement saying, "No allegations were made about Phillips and he had no involvement in this matter," and that she'd "never even heard of him until this election campaign started." She also condemned the spot, saying it is "an outrage for Paulsen to launch negative and false personal attacks against his opponent that drag these seven survivors into a political campaign for his own benefit." Allina, which is one of the state's largest health systems, also condemned the ad and said they had taken "appropriate action, consistent with our values and safe workplace policies."
● NY-27: GOP Rep. Chris Collins' trial date for insider trading has been set for February of 2020.
● TX-07: Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher is out with a spot arguing that Republican Rep. John Culberson had voted against preparing the Houston area for flooding.
The commercial features several couples saying their homes had flooded over the years, and while Culberson has been in Congress since Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, "he's had different priorities." They declare what, while he got "$680 million dollars for a telescope in South America," he "voted against funding to fix dams in Texas." They also say he "voted against FEMA funding to prepare for floods," and the spot concludes with a quote from the Houston Chronicle saying the congressman has spent his career "promoting his own pet projects rather than serving the needs of his district."
● TX-23: The National Journal reports that EMILY's List has placed a $600,000 buy in support of Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent very little in this contest, and EMILY has been Ortiz Jones' main ally in a race where the GOP is feeling confident.
● UT-04: Advertising Analytics reports that the DCCC is reserving $191,000 in TV ads for the final week of the race in their first investment for this contest.
● Polls: Today's House polls:
In Arizona's 1st, the DCCC has spent $1 million to protect O'Halleran, but neither the NRCC nor the Congressional Leadership Fund has stepped in to help Rogers. That's one reason to disbelieve her polling. Another is the comically threadbare memo from Go Right Strategies (go ahead and click it), which embarrassingly refers to the Democrat as "Invisible Tom" when listing out its results. No serious pollster does that. Also, this poll, like their last, only sampled landlines.
In Florida's 27th, Mason Dixon provides the first independent poll we've seen, which buttresses the widely reported notion that Shalala is not in the kind of shape she should be in a district that voted for Hillary Clinton 59-39. However, once again, the major GOP groups aren't playing here, while on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC has spent a relatively small $152,000. It's also worth noting that this poll gives Trump a 43-46 approval rating, which seems very high for a seat he lost so badly.
In Iowa's 1st, this survey (from Trump caretaker Kellyanne Conway's old firm) is almost the definition of an "I'm not dead yet!" poll—the kind you release when yeah, you really are pretty much a goner. Not only did a Siena poll last month give Finkenauer a giant 52-37 lead, but Blum's campaign has been triaged: Neither the NRCC nor the CLF has reserved time here, and the DCCC canceled almost all of its spending for this district.
In New Jersey's 3rd, MacArthur's poll is the first to give him the lead after the last two public surveys put Kim ahead, the most recent being a Siena poll last month that had Kim up 49-39. Outside groups on both sides have spent oodles here: Republicans $3 million and Democrats $3.4 million.
In Nevada's 4th, we haven't seen any independent polling here at all. This is another district where both sides are spending heavily, with $2.3 million from the NRCC and $2.6 million from Democratic groups, including the DCCC and House Majority PAC. There will be plenty more to come.
Finally, in Utah's 4th, this is the first-ever poll to show McAdams leading—and this race has been polled an unusually large number of times. The numbers come right on the heels of CLF making its first foray into the race, as well as the DCCC reserving ad time for the final week before Election Day.
Ad Roundup
