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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● GA-Gov: Republican Brian Kemp has avoided pointing guns at anyone in his general election ads, but the Georgia Democratic Party's newest spot begins with a clip of Kemp's infamous primary ad where he menacingly brandished a shotgun at a teenager named "Jake," whom Kemp described as a young man "interested in one of my daughters."
Campaign Action
The narrator in the GDP's ad describes Kemp as "pointing a shotgun at a teenager," before declaring that Kemp renewed "a sexual abuser's massage license, then refus[ed] to take responsibility" and defaulted "on a half-million dollar loan." (You can find background on the former story here and the latter here.) The narrator sums up Kemp: "Unaccountable. Reckless. Irresponsible… Brian Kemp cannot be trusted."
Kemp, meanwhile, is out with his own ad that features a woman identified only as "Amy" telling the audience that she's known Kemp for 10 years and knows how "incredibly decent and honest" he is. Amy then argues that Democrat Stacey Abrams supported "letting sexual predators work near our schools," and opposed a bill "cracking down on human trafficking." She concludes that Abrams "even voted against collecting DNA from registered sex offenders," adding that, "Victims of sexual violence deserve better. I know because I am one."
This is the latest spot that tries to portray Abrams as weak on crime, which have prompted the looked media to look at the background to the legislation in question. In 2008, the GOP legislature successfully pushed for bills to reinstate laws regarding sex offenders that had been struck down by the state Supreme Court. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that one bill restricted sex offenders from "living, working or loitering within 1,000 feet of places where children congregate, including schools and churches," while another "proposed to prohibit registered sex offenders from photographing children."
Democrats and civil rights advocates called these restrictions too onerous, noting for instance that school bus stops could change location every year. They also feared that this legislation could end up driving offenders into areas where few services were available. A local organization called Mosaic Georgia that helps sexual assault victims also questioned how much these laws would help protect anyone.
As for the bill that Kemp says was aimed at "cracking down on human trafficking," Abrams didn't vote either for or against it. The AJC says this bill, which passed, "allowed prosecutors to charge people soliciting a victim of sex trafficking with human trafficking violations." Abrams' campaign said she had reservations about it because it limited the discretion of judges and required judges to sentence anyone found guilty to at least 10 years.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is up with a spot highlighting how Republican Rick Scott's "blind trust" was anything but. The narrator first asks how Scott got rich and hits him over his old Medicare fraud scandal, before declaring that as governor, "Scott got even richer, making $550 million on one transaction hidden from the voters." The ad concludes, "Everywhere he's gone, Rick Scott has stuffed his own pockets."
● IN-Sen, MT-Sen, TX-32, OH-01: The Credit Union Legislative Action Council (known to us as CULAC the PAC), has announced that they'll spend $525,000 on digital and mail advertisements for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana, with a smaller $250,000 effort for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. On the other side, they're employing $200,000 on TV, digital, and radio spots for Texas Rep. Pete Sessions. We also have a copy of the TV spot they're running for fellow GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio as part of a similar overall buy, which we wrote up in a previous Digest.
● NJ-Sen: Republican Bob Hugin recently launched a spot that revived six-year-old anonymous allegations that Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez solicited sex with underage girls in the Dominican Republic, and Menendez quickly went up with a response commercial.
The ad shows clips of Howard Kurtz on CNN (he has since moved to Fox News) declaring, "The FBI has found no evidence in this case," and, "It's clear that someone was out to smear Menendez." The narrator says that Hugin "was willing to do anything to get rich, including misleading cancer patients. Now he's willing to do anything to get elected, including lying." It shows one more clip of Kurtz saying that a woman said "she was paid to lie about Menendez."
● OH-Sen: Oh, to hell with this guy. Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, whose most recent TV ads had the chutzpah to attack Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for trying to "destroy Judge Kavanaugh with unfounded claims," now is making his own extremely unfounded claim that "multiple women" have told him they were assaulted by Brown between 1987 and 2004.
Renacci made these incendiary allegations at a meeting with the editorial board of the Cincinnati Enquirer on Wednesday. The paper noted that he "didn't provide any proof or specifics," not even to name the attorney he claims he referred these women to or to specify the total number of women who supposedly approached him. Needless to say, Brown denied all of Renacci's claims, and fortunately, Renacci's campaign is spiraling into oblivion: The Daily Kos Elections polling average has him trailing by a painful 51-35 margin, and outside groups have left him to fend for himself.
Renacci also got negative attention of a different sort on Thursday. We'll just let WOSU Radio's headline sum it up: "Jim Renacci failed to pay strip club owner for governor campaign flights."
● WV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's new commercial features three well-known West Virginia sports figures endorsing him.
Nick Saban, a native West Virginian who coaches the University of Alabama football team, begins by telling the audience that he and Manchin grew up together in the state and the senator "never forgets where he came from." Next up is Jerry West, another state native who played and coached the Los Angeles Lakers, who says Manchin "dedicated his whole life to West Virginia." Finally, Bob Huggins, the current head coach of West Virginia University's men's basketball team, says no one loves the people of the state more than Manchin.
● Polls:
- IN-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 44, Mike Braun (R): 36
- NJ-Sen: Monmouth: Bob Menendez (D-inc): 49, Bob Hugin (R): 40 (April: 53-32 Menendez)
- NJ-Sen: National Research (R) for Bob Hugin: Menendez (D-inc): 42, Hugin (R): 40
- NV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Jacky Rosen (D): 44, Dean Heller (R-inc): 44
- TN-Sen: SSRS for Vanderbilt University: Phil Bredesen (D): 44, Marsha Blackburn (R): 43 (Sept.: 50-45 Bredesen)
- WV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Manchin (D-inc): 45, Patrick Morrissey (R) 40
Normally, Daily Kos Elections cites poll numbers that include both respondents who definitively pick a candidate and those who say they're leaning one way or the other, but we had to do something different in the case of Vox Populi. The firm allows respondents to say they support or lean towards one candidate, but it doesn't allow them to say they were undecided.
As we wrote in our post explaining how Daily Kos Elections reports and analyzes polls, we require any poll featured in the Digest to include voters who indicate that they're undecided. If a pollster does not allow voters to say they're still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, they're leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race—and not adhering to best practices. However, rather than exclude Vox Populi from the Digest, we've decided that it's better to treat the respondents who, when forced to make as choice, say they're "leaning" towards a particular candidate as undecided voters.
For instance, in Indiana, 44 percent of respondents say they're backing Donnelly, and 11 percent say they're leaning towards him; 36 percent say they're for Braun, and 11 percent say they're leaning Braun. We therefore are reporting that Donnelly leads 44-36 rather than 55-45, and are classifying the 22 percent of "leaners" as undecided voters—which they in fact were when initially asked, until they were compelled to choose a candidate. It's not an ideal solution, but we think it's better than excluding Vox Populi's results altogether.
In New Jersey, the Washington Examiner tells us the National Research internal for Hugin was in the field Oct. 6-9.
SSRS's last Tennessee Senate poll, whose trendlines we show above, was conducted for CNN, while this one was taken for Vanderbilt University. While three independent polls from the first two weeks of October showed Blackburn up anywhere from 5 to 14 points, this is the second independent survey this week to show a much tighter race. This is also the first poll we've seen in about a month to give Bredesen any sort of lead.
However, while it's tempting to hope that Bredesen just took a dip earlier this month and has now stabilized his position, we still only have a limited set of data to work with. We don't know if anything has changed over the last few days, or if the firms who've polled more recently just happen to be more favorable toward Bredesen than those who were in the field earlier. And since SSRS's prior poll gave Bredesen a 5-point lead, this latest survey actually shows his support declining.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: The Denver ABC affiliate KMGH-Denver7 has pulled a very misleading TV spot attacking Democrat Jared Polis. The dark money group Colorado Citizens for Truth recently launched a $700,000 buy claiming Polis assaulted a female employee 20 years ago, but it didn't mention the police report that said Polis had tried to stop her from leaving the office with stolen documents valued between $25,000 and $75,000. The commercial also declared that she had gotten a temporary restraining order against Polis while leaving out that the order was later vacated and that she eventually pleaded guilty to stealing trade secrets and was ordered to stay away from Polis.
● IL-Gov: Ten staffers working for Democrat J.B. Pritzker have sued his campaign alleging racial discrimination. The staffers, nine who are black and one who is Latina, charge that they are "herded into race-specific positions where they are expected to interact with the public, offered no meaningful chance for advancement, and receive less favorable treatment than their white counterparts." Pritzker denied the allegations as "just not true."
A suit like this has no chance of resolution prior to Election Day (barring a settlement) and likely wouldn't even have any sort of court hearing before then, so the only way it might become an issue is if Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner tries to make it one. He's in a very awkward spot, though: While he predictably called the matter "serious," Rauner was unable to say how many black or Latino people work for his campaign, or even whether any held senior positions. Pritzker, meanwhile, continues to hold a dominant lead and is currently up 48-29 in the Daily Kos Elections polling average.
● KS-Gov: On Thursday, Democrat Laura Kelly picked up an endorsement from former Republican Gov. Mike Hayden, who was elected in 1986 and lost re-election four years later. Former GOP Gov. Bill Graves had previously endorsed Kelly, and she now has the support of every living former governor who isn't named Sam Brownback.
Brownback, a Republican who now serves as a low-ranking ambassador in the Trump administration, left office this year horrifically unpopular after passing extreme tax cuts that eviscerated public services like education. He hasn't officially endorsed GOP nominee Kris Kobach, who nevertheless stands by his agenda.
● MN-Gov: As of this week, Jeff Johnson is no longer a name that national Republicans know. This week, the Republican Governors Association told Buzzfeed that they had no ad reservations in Minnesota, and Medium Buying confirmed that they'd canceled the final week of spending for the governor's race.
The committee had reserved $2.3 million back in April when their preferred candidate, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, looked like he was well on his way to capturing the GOP nomination. However, an unnamed GOP operative told BuzzFeed in June that it was "likely" they'd cancel it if Johnson won the primary, which he did in August. The RGA slowly began zeroing out week after week of TV time, and now there's nothing left to cut. Johnson has consistently trailed Democrat Tim Walz in the polls.
● NH-Gov: New campaign finance reports reveal that Democrat Molly Kelly outraised GOP Gov. Chris Sununu $345,000 to $111,000 since the mid-September primary, though Sununu holds a $437,000 to $236,000 cash-on-hand edge.
● WI-Gov: This week, Paul Jadin resigned from GOP Gov. Scott Walker's cabinet and endorsed Democrat Tony Evers one day later. Jadin, who was the first CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp., is the fourth former Walker cabinet official to speak out against his old boss in recent months.
Jadin co-signed a letter with former Corrections Secretary Ed Wall (who released a tell-all book this year alleging that Walker and GOP Attorney General Brad Schimel drove him to the edge of suicide), and former Financial Institutions Secretary Peter Bildsten, who criticized Walker and supported Evers. Former Transportation Secretary Mark Gottlieb has also accused the governor of lying about road funding.
● Governors: This week's installment of the Daily Kos Elections Governors Forecast finds the Democrats in position (in the polling averages) to pick up eight Republican-held gubernatorial seats; Maine and Wisconsin have both moved from ties to Democratic leads in the last week. We also take a look at how things are shaking out in the nation's most populous states; Democrats could end up in control of seven, or even nine, of the nation's 10 most populous states.
● Polls:
House
● CA-21: Medium Buying reports the NRCC has canceled their ad buy for the week of Oct. 23-29, but they still have time booked for the final week of the race. The group had previously zeroed out their reservations for Oct. 3-22 in a sign of confidence in GOP Rep. David Valadao, and the DCCC also cut $70,000 in TV time for the final week of the race.
● FL-27: The DCCC is airing a TV spot here for the first time, though there's no word on the size of the buy. Their commercial, which is airing in Spanish, ties Republican Maria Elvira Salazar to Donald Trump. The move comes days after the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund went up with their own Spanish ad against Democrat Donna Shalala in a race that once looked like a likely Democratic pickup.
● MN-08: With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, Democrat Joe Radinovich is dealing with another setback as his campaign manager, Meredith Raimondi, just quit. Raimondi did not provide any further details about her reasons for leaving, and Radinovich's campaign hasn't commented on the departure, but any time senior staff leaves—especially so close to an election—without a replacement already named, it's never good news.
Earlier in the week, Radinovich also learned that the DCCC was no longer a believer in his campaign when it announced it was redirecting $800,000 in ad reservations away from Minnesota's 8th to the 1st and 2nd Districts instead. That follows a recent Siena poll gave Republican Pete Stauber a hefty 49-34 lead over Radinovich.
But Radinovich, at least, is still keeping up the fight. In a new negative ad, Radinovich attacks Stauber for "wast[ing] official resources and our taxpayer dollars to strategize with Washington special interests—and [he] was caught red-handed." According to the Star Tribune, Stauber, a St. Louis County commissioner, used his government email address to exchange at least 15 emails with the NRCC, which would be a violation of county policy.
However, county officials are refusing to turn over the emails in response to a public records request from the Star Tribune, even though a state agency said they should. Republicans are obviously hoping to run out the clock, but by allowing the issue to fester, that could wind up making things worse for Stauber.
● NC-02: Rather weirdly, GOP Rep. George Holding has decided to call out a new ad that the Congressional Leadership Fund is airing on his behalf. The spot attacks Democrat Linda Coleman for allegedly paying her property taxes late, but as we previously noted, North Carolina offers a grace period, making the deadline Coleman missed a deadline in name only.
Surprisingly, Holding acknowledged this very fact in a new interview. "Everyone waits until the last minute. Why should you give the government money before you have to?" he told the News & Observer. Added Holding, "It's an example of an outside group spending money and not knowing what is going on in North Carolina." While it's strange to see a congressman defend his opponent, perhaps Holding is just trying to burnish his anti-tax credentials, or maybe he wants to distance himself from D.C. politics by slagging the CLF.
It's certainly not the first unusual thing he's done this year, though: In August, Holding tried to raised money by touting an internal poll that he said showed him losing to Coleman, something you almost never see an incumbent do. Evidently, though, George Holding is not most incumbents.
● NV-04: On Thursday, The Hill reported that the NRCC had cut $1.2 million in TV reservations for the Las Vegas media market. The group had earlier decided to direct their ad time towards helping former GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy regain Nevada’s 4th District rather than aiding Danny Tarkanian in the nearby 3rd, so he's the one who is getting left out in the cold here.
While the 4th, which includes many of Las Vegas' northern suburbs as well as some nearby rural areas, backed Clinton 50-45, Republicans had been optimistic that Hardy could retake his seat even in an unfavorable political climate. A few days ago, the GOP firm Moore Information even released a poll showing Hardy leading former Rep. Steven Horsford (a Democrat whom Hardy unseated in the 2014 GOP wave) 41-37. However, it seems that this survey wasn't enough to convince the powers-that-be at the NRCC that this was a good investment.
The NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have been airing ads in the 3rd to help Tarkanian, but as of Monday, they'd left the 4th to the NRCC. It remains to be seen if the CLF will rush in to aid Hardy, of if he'll be left to fend for himself in a tough environment. Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent millions in both seats, and so far, there's no sign that they're planning to let up.
● NY-24: The NRCC recently went up with their first TV ad in a contest where Republicans had seemed quite bullish about GOP Rep. John Katko's chances, and the Syracuse Post-Standard reports that the size-of-the-buy is $645,000.
● VA-07: What a swell guy Dave Brat is! The Republican congressman, who's in the fight of his political life against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, was visiting a local jail on Wednesday, where he met with a support group of inmates struggling with addiction. But just check out the dude's empathy!
"You think you're having a hard time—I got $5 million worth of negative ads going at me. How do you think I'm feeling? Nothing's easy. For anybody. You think I'm a congressman. 'Oh, life's easy. This guy's off having steaks.' Baloney! I got a daughter, she's got to deal with that crap on TV every day. It's tough. No one out there's got some easy life."
Oh yes! Being the target of attack ads is just like losing your freedom, trying to overcome a drug addiction, and worrying about your future after your release. The rest of his remarks were just as clueless: When one prisoner said that halfway houses are often in drug-infested areas, Brat tried to claim the kind of place where he lives isn't all that nice, saying, "You won't believe the depression in those hoity-toity neighborhoods." (Is that so!)
He also complained that when he left his professorship to serve in Congress—a decision he made freely, when he chose to challenge then-Rep. Eric Cantor—his children were no longer entitled to free tuition at his college, whining, "I didn't have any savings. All went away—oops! So, plans change."
Brat did ultimately concede that prisoners have "got it harder," but on every level, he displayed an entitled cluelessness that would make any decent person cringe. The Washington Post says Brat's campaign did not respond to a request for comment, but what could they possibly say here that might make any of this better?
● UT-04: Major outside groups on both sides only recently started spending here, and the Salt Lake Tribune takes a look at how much is being spent. They write that the Congressional Leadership Fund has booked $1.14 million to defend GOP Rep. Mia Love, while the DCCC has a smaller $235,000 reservation to help Democrat Ben McAdams. The Democratic group Patriot Majority also recently launched a $228,000 TV buy.
● VA-10: Medium Buying reports the DCCC has booked time for Oct. 18-22. The group had previously canceled $843,000 in spending for the final week of the contest, and it's not clear how much money they're adding for this five-day buy.
● WA-05: Roll Call reports that the group Winning for Women is spending six figures on a TV spot promoting GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers for trying to expand hydropower in the area.
● House: The Trump-inspired super PAC America First Action reports several new media buys in support of Republicans in a number of races:
- IN-Sen: $752,000
- MO-Sen: $869,000
- ME-02: $827,000
- NV-03: $1.37 million
- PA-10: $614,000
- WV-03: $618,000
This is the first major GOP buy in Pennsylvania's 10th, where GOP Rep. Scott Perry faces Democrat George Scott in a redrawn Harrisburg-area seat that went for Mitt Romney 53-46 and Donald Trump 53-43. The DCCC has spent $232,000 here so far.
● Polls:
- AK-AL: Alaska Survey Research (D): Don Young (R-inc): 49, Alyse Galvin (I/D): 47 (Early Oct.: 50-46 Young)
- AK-AL: Lake Research (D) for Alyse Galvin: Young (R-inc): 48, Galvin (I/D): 44 (June: 40-36 Young)
- CA-45: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Mimi Walters: Mimi Walters (R-inc): 50, Katie Porter (D): 46
- CO-06: Siena for the New York Times: Jason Crow (D): 47, Mike Coffman (R-Inc): 38 (Sept.: 51-40 Crow)
- FL-15: SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 Tampa/News 13 Orlando: Kristen Carlson (D): 45, Ross Spano (R): 45
- KS-03: Siena for the New York Times: Sharice Davids (D): 48, Kevin Yoder (R-inc): 39 (Sept.: 51-43 Davids)
ASR's last tracking poll for an unnamed "consortium of varied interests" found Young going from a 54-43 lead at the end of September to just 50-46 in the first week of October, and their new survey gives him just a 2-point edge. The result is slightly better than Galvin's own internal or a recent PPP poll for a pro-Galvin group that had Young up 46-43.
Walters released this poll about a week after unnamed GOP strategists told the New York Times that Walters could get triaged if she didn't "recover quickly," and at a time when the Congressional Leadership Fund is only running cable ads for her rather than more expensive buys on broadcast TV. Still, it's better for her than the snippet of a POS poll she released at the start of this month, where she only revealed that she led 37-36 with voters "who have definitely made a decision," while she holds a 44-39 with "informed voters" instead of all voters.
Both Siena polls are pretty similar to their September surveys, and that's bad news for the trailing GOP incumbents. The CLF triaged Coffman in late September, while the NRCC abandoned Yoder a few days later. Both incumbents soon released their own polls showing a tight race in their seats, but so far, it hasn't been enough to get either of them un-triaged.
SurveyUSA has some good results for Democrat in Florida's 15th, a seat in the Tampa area seat that went from 52-47 Romney to 53-43 Trump. However, it comes days after the DCCC canceled TV time in the Tampa market, which covers most of this seat. So far, the only major outside group on either side that has aired ads in this race is the arch-conservative Club for Growth, which recently launched a $300,000 buy against Carlson.
Ad Roundup
