On Friday, the NRCC confirmed that they’d canceled their remaining $1 million ad buy for GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado's 6th District, while Politico reports that the committee has bought $1.5 million in air time for Florida's open 27th District.
Back in late September, the Congressional Leadership Fund canceled their remaining $1 million in reservations to defend Coffman, who faces a very tough race against Democrat Jason Crow in a 50-41 Clinton seat in suburban Denver. The NRCC initially announced they would fill the void by adding $600,000 to their buy to save Coffman, and they released a mid-September poll conducted for both the Coffman campaign and the committee showing him down just 42-40 as another sign they felt the incumbent was not yet doomed. However, a recent Siena poll found Crow up 47-38, and the NRCC finally seems to have acknowledged reality.
But the news is not all good for Democrats. The NRCC’s late decision to get involved in Florida's 27th District is another sign that Team Red could well hold onto this open 59-39 Clinton seat in the Miami area, one where voters still often back Republicans further down the ballot. While both parties initially treated this district as a likely Democratic pickup and directed their resources towards the nearby 26th District, things have changed over the last month.
Democrats have griped that Democrat Donna Shalala isn't running a strong campaign against Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, and a recent Mason-Dixon poll even found Salazar up 44-42. Shalala's campaign responded with a poll giving her a modest 44-39 lead, another sign that this seat is in play. A few days ago, the CLF began running ads here for the first time for a reported six figures (we don't know how much exactly), and the DCCC soon responded with their first buy for $440,000. If the NRCC makes good on their reported $1.5 million investment, it will mark a serious escalation in this race two weeks out.