Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● GA-Gov: Unbelievable: On Tuesday, Rolling Stone obtained leaked audio from a private campaign event in which Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who oversees Georgia's elections, outright said he was worried that too many Georgians would vote in his own race for governor against Democrat Stacey Abrams. Kemp fretted about the resources Abrams is "putting behind the get-out-the-vote effort," saying that her campaign's unprecedented number of absentee ballot request "is something that concerns us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote."
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Kemp's fretting is more than mere talk, because he's one of America's most infamous voter suppression zealots. Under Kemp's leadership, Georgia has been one of the leaders in purging voter registrations, even of those may still be eligible to vote. And just last week, we learned that his draconian "exact-match" system has suspended the voter registrations of 53,000 citizens, roughly 90 percent of whom are people of color, over trivialities like a misplaced hyphen in their names. Kemp has also failed to protect Georgia's election equipment from the threat of hackers, and he's refused to even acknowledge the obvious conflict of interest in overseeing his own race for higher office.
Kemp's naked desire to suppress the vote is reminiscent of the tactics of the Jim Crow era, especially since polls show he's locked in a very tight race with Abrams. If elected, Abrams would make history as the first black governor of Georgia or any Deep South state, and she would also become the first black woman to become governor of any state in history.
Republicans like Kemp, on the other hand, are emblematic of the GOP's racist response to a rapidly diversifying electorate. Rather than seek to broaden its appeal, the today's Republican Party would rather make sure that as few people vote as possible. Kemp's latest comments illustrate once again that he is quite simply an enemy of democracy.
Meanwhile, the ACLU is going up with an $800,000 TV ad campaign in support of Abrams. The spot features a woman describing how her son was addicted to drugs and went to jail, before the narrator praises Abrams for working with GOP Gov. Nathan Deal on reforms to reduce the massive costs Georgia pays to keep low-level offenders locked up. The commercial also declares that Abrams will "end dependence on private prisons, saving millions that could be used for treatment."
Senate
● FL-Sen: Senate Majority PAC recently launched a Spanish-language ad tying Republican Rick Scott to Donald Trump and his handling of Hurricane Maria, and Scott is now going up with a response ad that's also in Spanish. The narrator argues that Scott "has confronted President Trump when he disagrees with him," and they use as evidence … a tweet where Scott says "I disagree" with Trump's claim that Maria's death toll was exaggerated by Democrats. Apparently, Scott thinks that extremely mild rebuke is a profile in courage.
● MS-Sen-B: On behalf of NBC, Marist gives us a rare look at the Nov. 7 special election, which is officially a nonpartisan contest. They find appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in front with 38 percent, while former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy leads GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel 29-15 for second place. In the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, there would be a Nov. 27 runoff. Marist takes a look at two runoff scenarios and finds Hyde-Smith beating Espy 50-36, though Espy leads McDaniel 43-36.
Espy is also going up with his first TV spot, where he tells the audience that "Mississippi is too often defamed, dismissed, and disrespected," which hurts the state's communities and economy. Espy declares he'll work to correct that stereotype and attract jobs, as well as give young people a greater respect for themselves and others.
● TN-Sen: Republican Marsha Blackburn's new ad rolls out Darrell Waltrip, a three-time NASCAR champion who now works as a on-air personality for Fox Sports. Waltrip, who is shown standing in front of a race track, tells the audience that he "made a career out of going fast and turning left. Now, that works on the track, but not so good in Washington." He argues that Democrat Phil Bredesen will just go along with liberals. Blackburn then pulls up in a racing car and asks Waltrip if he'll "keep talking, or are we gonna roll?" Waltrip excitedly lets out his "Boogity, boogity, boogity!" catch-phrase and concludes, "Let's win this race!"
● WI-Sen: Republicans aren't just portraying Democrats as an unwashed violent mob in red states, they're also doing in swingy Wisconsin. The super PAC Wisconsin Next is up with a $500,000 spot against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin declaring that in 2011, Baldwin led liberal protestors to the capitol to try to intimidate Republican Leah Vukmir and other conservative legislators. The narrator adds that it's happening again, and "We can't let radical Tammy Baldwin and her fanatical allies win. It's time to defeat them again."
● WV-Sen: Politico reports that, while the conservative Senate Leadership Fund has $750,000 booked for ads this week, they have yet to reserve anything for the final week of the contest.
● Polling: Just a couple of Senate polls today:
- FL-Sen: SurveyUSA for local media: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49, Rick Scott (R) 41 (Sept. 46-44 Scott)
- IN-Sen: Mason Strategies (R) for Indy Politics: Mike Braun (R): 47, Joe Donnelly (D): 43
SurveyUSA's Florida poll is notable because this is now the third survey in recent days to show Nelson putting some daylight between himself and Scott: Quinnipiac had Nelson up 52-46, while SSRS gave him a 50-45 lead. While other polls have continued to find the race neck-and-neck (and a possibly dodgy Scott internal even had him up 5), the polls that see a gap opening up are no longer looking like such outliers. Overall, Nelson now has a 48-45 edge in the Daily Kos Elections polling average, which you can find by clicking the race tag just above.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: In a change from what had been previously reported, election officials in Alaska said on Monday that votes for independent Gov. Bill Walker, who dropped his re-election bid on Friday, would in fact be tallied in November's election. In practice, though, this should make little difference, as whichever of the two remaining candidates, Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Mike Dunleavy, gets the most votes will win the race, regardless of whether votes for Walker are counted.
Perhaps of greater consequence, the state's elections division said it would not allow any voters who sent in absentee ballots before Walker's announcement to void their ballot and vote again. As of Friday, officials said 3,076 such ballots had been returned. In a very close race, it's possible that these votes could wind up making a difference. In 2014, Walker himself won by just 6,223 votes.
● FL-Gov: Florida Conservation Voters has announced a $500,000 digital ad buy for Democrat Andrew Gillum.
● IL-Gov: You know a campaign is desperate when it gets edgy and inserts the F-bomb into its TV ads. GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner once again is tying Democrat J.B. Pritzker to state House Speaker Mike Madigan and his new spot even shows the two getting married as partners in "unlawful destruction." The minister declares he "now pronounces Illinois" before his final word is censored, with the actor mouthing the word "fucked." That feels more like a description for the Rauner campaign.
● NV-Gov: The Nevada Independent reports that a new conservative super PAC called Fighting for Nevada has launched a $1.2 million ad campaign arguing that Democrat Steve Sisolak "will cost you too much." The group is funded by Station Casinos, the mixed martial arts promotion company Zuffa, the Nevada Subcontractors Association PAC, and Home Depot co-founder and prolific conservative donor Bernard Marcus.
Meanwhile, a conservative group called the Tenth Amendment Project has launched "issue" ads praising Republican Adam Laxalt. The spots don't call for viewers to vote for him but instead to thank their attorney general for establishing a partnership to get free legal aid to veterans and creating an elder fraud unit.
● OR-Gov: Thanks in large part to more big donations from former Nike co-founder Phil Knight and the RGA, Republican Knute Buehler has had a very lucrative few weeks. Buehler brought in $5.6 million from Sept. 26 to Oct. 12, while Democratic Gov. Kate Brown took in $1.8 million during that time. As of Oct. 12, Buehler has narrowly outraised Brown by a total of $14.1 million to $13.7 million since January 2017.
Buehler also held a $3.9 million to $3.5 million cash-on-hand lead. At this point in the race money in the bank isn't a great way to measure a campaign's financial health, since campaigns often pre-pay for advertising weeks or months in advance, which makes their cash-on-hand levels look artificially low. Still, it looks like Buehler won't lack resources for the next few weeks.
● RI-Gov: Republican Allan Fung is out with his first TV ad targeting conservative independent Joe Trillo. The narrator insists that Trillo has "admitted his campaign will help re-elect [Democratic Gov.] Gina Raimondo," which would mean four more years of her. The rest of the ad shows negative clips about Raimondo.
● SC-Gov: New campaign finance reports reveal that GOP Gov. Henry McMaster narrowly outraised Democrat James Smith $1.7 million to $1.4 million from July to Oct. 10, and that he holds a very similar $1.7 million to $1.45 million cash-on-hand lead.
● Polling: Freshen ya polls, guv'nah?
As with their Senate portion, SurveyUSA shows considerable distance between Gillum and DeSantis. Quinnipiac does as well, though their numbers represent a tightening from their last poll—albeit a probably too-good-to-be-true 9-point advantage for the Democrat. Independent pollsters in general are finding a wider gap between the two candidates, and per the Daily Kos Elections average, Gillum's overall lead is now 48-44.
House
● FL-15: In an about-face, the DCCC is returning to buy ads that will reach Florida's open 15th District, with Medium Buying reporting that they began their first TV ad buy on behalf of Democrat Kristen Carlson. This move comes just a week after the D-trip had pulled out of the Tampa media market, which is home to 89 percent of this district.
However, that cancellation must have instead been due to their lack of confidence in beating GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan in the neighboring 16th District, which is entirely located in the Tampa market, and as a result, we're removing the 15th from our triage tracker. The Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Republican Ross Spano just a 46-43 lead in this 53-43 Trump district.
● FL-18: With Honor Fund is joining GOP Rep. Brian Mast in running a spot hitting Democrat Lauren Baer over an op-ed she wrote in college just after the Sept. 11 attacks. The narrator argues that Baer "criticized our country, calling our response to 9/11, when hundreds of first responders sacrificed their lives, 'a moment of hypocrisy,' writing that America has a 'shameful history' of rarely standing up for values of justice and righteousness." The ad concludes by asking if Baer "couldn't stand with us after 9/11, how can she stand up for us in Congress?"
However, as Florida Politics writes, Baer (who again, was in college at the time) never criticized first responders. Baer, who went on to serve in the State Department, responded to this attack at a recent debate with Mast, saying at the time she'd "said if we are going to have other countries see an attack on America as an attack on (themselves), then an attack on American values anywhere in the world should be seen as an attack on us ourselves as well."
● PA-01: Attorneys for Democrat Scott Wallace have succeeded in knocking an ad from a Republican super PAC, Defending Main Street, off the airwaves on the grounds that it was false (a process we recently explained here). The spot claimed that Wallace had "funded" the legal defense of Mumia Abu-Jamal, who was convicted in 1982 for the murder of a Philadelphia police officer, but no such thing ever happened. The only "evidence" that the PAC put forth was that Wallace's family foundation had made a donation to Democracy Now!, a news program that has at times featured Abu-Jamal. Not even close.
But while Wallace succeeded in digging one thorn out of his side, at the same time, he earned some negative headlines for cursing in apparent exasperation during a debate with Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick at a local synagogue on Sunday night. The story, however, appears to be overblown: In a "moment of frustration," according to the congregation's rabbi, Wallace let slip the words "ah, fuck" "under his breath."
That's a far cry from what was first reported (and of course got shared on Twitter): that Wallace had snapped "fuck off" at Fitzpatrick. Wallace issued a half-hearted no-pology (saying he was sorry "for any offense that might have been taken"), though we can all agree that you shouldn't curse in a house of worship. But there's nothing to indicate that this was anything other than an ill-timed human moment. And if Fitzpatrick really wants to complain about incivility, he can start by directing his attention to Donald Trump.
● VA-02: The DCCC is up with a new spot hitting GOP Rep. Scott Taylor for continuing to pay staffers for continuing to pay four staffers accused of forging signatures to get independent Shaun Brown on the ballot.
● WA-03, NC-02, NY-24: EMILY's List is launching new ad buys for Democrats in several districts, including in a few races that hadn't seen much, if any, major outside spending until fairly recently. EMILY's most interesting investment is a $400,000 TV buy against Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington's 3rd District, a southern Washington seat where there's been very little outside spending on either side until now. A Siena poll finished days ago gave the incumbent a 48-41 lead over Democrat Carolyn Long, while a recent Long poll found the Democrat ahead 45-43.
EMILY is also spending $446,000 on a buy against North Carolina Rep. George Holding, taking their total investment here to $890,000 so far. The contest for this suburban Raleigh seat has attracted serious outside attention over the last few weeks: The Congressional Leadership Fund has spent $1.2 million to help Holding, while House Majority PAC has deployed about $380,000 for Democrat Linda Coleman.
Over in New York's 24th, EMILY is up with their first TV ad against GOP Rep. John Katko for $400,000. This is another race that outside groups have taken an interest in recently. HMP says they're spending $1 million here overall, while the NRCC recently spent $357,000 against Democrat Dana Balter.
● VA-05: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund is making its first foray into this open 53-42 Trump seat on behalf of Republican Denver Riggleman, with the Washington Post reporting they're placing an ad buy of an unspecified size through Election Day. Cockburn outraised Riggleman by a wide $1.1 million to $686,000 in the third quarter, and she had a $1 million to $505,000 cash-on-hand advantage as of the start of October, meaning outside support will likely be a welcome development on his part.
Furthermore, if Siena's new poll on behalf of the New York Times is close to the mark, Riggleman could indeed use the help. Their poll is the first publicly available survey of the entire race, and it surprisingly shows Democrat Leslie Cockburn leading Riggleman 46-45, even though the general consensus until now has been that Republicans were at least somewhat favored to hold this conservative-leaning seat.
● Spending: The House Majority PAC announced new ads on Tuesday in 16 districts across the country, a dozen held by Republicans and four by Democrats. Most are in districts that have been hotly contested by both sides and will help determine control of the House, but some are in more marginal seats. That includes reach districts where Democrats are on offense like Wisconsin's 6th, which hadn't previously seen any outside spending by the four major House groups.
It also includes a couple of Democratic districts that Republicans haven't made a serious play for, namely Arizona's 1st and Florida's 7th. Don't panic, though: HMP, as a super PAC, is answerable to its donors, and some of them have an interest in particular races even if they aren't particularly competitive. We saw a notable example of this in 2014, when HMP directed money to New Jersey's safely blue 1st Congressional District, so something similar may be happening again this year.
● Polls: Two more weeks …
Polls have consistently shown a tight race in California's 48th District, but the GOP has been surprisingly reluctant to spend much to boost Rohrabacher, who is not a strong fundraiser. Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Times reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund was only running cable ads for Rohrabacher rather than splurging for more expensive broadcast TV buys.
The CLF did spend another $345,000 for Rohrabacher in the week of Oct. 15-21, though that's considerably less than they spent to aid four other California Republicans in competitive races; the NRCC still hasn't spent anything. That doesn't mean the CLF and NRCC definitely think Rohrabacher is in more trouble than the polls suggest, but this is some odd behavior from them in a race that otherwise appears to be very tight. Democrats, by contrast, are acting like this Orange County seat is very competitive, and House Majority PAC spent $700,000 over the last week.
Salazar's poll comes from the disreputable McLaughlin & Associates, which finds the same margin they had a month ago. While this race certainly no longer looks like the likely Democratic pickup that it once did, no other pollster has shown anything like McLaughlin, and outside groups certainly aren't acting like they think Salazar is this far ahead.
This is the first poll we've seen of Georgia's 6th since late August, when a Democratic poll gave Handel a 49-47 lead. Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA recently launched a $1.8 million buy, with an additional $500,000 going to digital ads and mailers, while the NRCC recently began a $1.4 million buy to defend this suburban Atlanta seat.
Siena finds a big swing to Bost since early September in a downstate Illinois seat that moved from 50-48 Obama to 55-40 Trump. Democratic groups released a pair of polls in late September and early October giving Bost just a 1-point lead, and major outside groups have continued to spend here in the last week.
The poll of Maine's 2nd only tested Golden and Poliquin and left out the two independent candidates.
An early September Democratic poll also gave Balderson a very small lead. Few major outside groups have advertised here since Balderson narrowly beat O'Connor in the August special, though the conservative America First Action super PAC recently launched a $1 million buy.
This is the first poll we've seen since July out of Texas' 21st, an open seat that went from 60-38 Romney to a smaller but still tough 52-43 Trump. We also haven't seen any major outside spending on either side.
Siena's poll out of Virginia's 2nd is a bit better for Team Blue, though it still gives Taylor the lead. They also give Taylor a strong 51-32 favorable image compared to Luria's 45-28 score, which suggests his signature-gathering scandal hasn't done him nearly as much damage as Democrats have hoped. (The DCCC is still running ads on the topic, though.) The only other independent poll we've seen was a mid-October poll from Christopher Newport University that had Taylor up 50-43.
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