www.cookpolitical.com/...
Cook Political Ratings has move the Oklahoma Governor’s Race and New Hampshire Governor races towards the Democratic candidates with Oklahoma now a tossup and New Hampshire shifted from likely Republican to lean Republican.
In Oklahoma:
...some GOP strategists are growing concerned that (GOP candidate) Kevin Stitt hasn’t been able to close the deal. Democrats have always believed that the state is ready for change after eight years with GOP Gov. Mary Fallin at the helm; Fallin may well be the most unpopular Governor in the country today. And, that their nominee, former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, is the strongest candidate they could have hoped for.
While Stitt is an outsider, Democrats have worked to tie him to Fallin, saying that if elected, Stitt will amount to a third term for Fallin. Republicans have started to portray Edmondson as too liberal for the state. This is quickly becoming a jump ball.
In New Hampshire:
Sununu has had a healthy lead in the race, but when there are wave elections, the wave always tend to be somewhat bigger when it hits New Hampshire. Sununu remains favored to win the contest, but his margin is likely to be smaller than his lead in the polls today would suggest.
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maristpoll.marist.edu/...
In the NPR/Marist College Generic Poll, Democrats have increase their lead from 6% to 10%. The poll says 50% of voters prefer Democrats and 40% will vote Republican. This as President Trump campaigns heavily to make the election all about himself.
These numbers seem to return the generic race about where it was after the conviction of Paul Manafort and before the “Kavanaugh Bump”.
NPR/Marist Generic Poll
Democrat Republican Neither Undecided
10/26 50% 40% 5% 6%
10/3 48% 42% 4% 5%
9/26 48% 41% 5% 6%
9/13 50% 38% 7% 6%
Marist Poll is rated as an “A” poll by website 538 with a Republican lean of 0.5% Republican.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Nate Silver Retweeted Dave Were-ghoul
In general the highest-quality polls seem to show a bigger generic ballot lead for Dems (averaging maybe 9 or 10 points) than the medium quality stuff (averaging maybe 6 or 8).
@daveweigel
New NPR/PBS/Marist poll has Ds up 10 on generic ballot. This was the poll, a few weeks ago, that sparked the “Kavanaugh backlash/enthusiasm gap” panic among Ds. A few weeks is a long time.
Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll of 935 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 21-23. “Overall” results reflect all respondents, and the margin of error is 3.9 percentage points. Party affiliation results reflect the 738 respondents who identified as registered voters, and the margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. Totals may not add up to 100 because of rounding. “Vol.” answers were volunteered by respondents.