Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● ND-Sen: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer continues to find new ways to make offensive comments about women in his race against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, with his latest incident disparaging the #MeToo movement:
"That you're just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened," Mr. Cramer said, alluding to Christine Blasey Ford—who has accused Justice Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were teenagers—and, more broadly, women who have come forward to claim that they were sexually abused or assaulted.
Invoking his wife, daughters, mother and mother-in-law, Mr. Cramer said, "They cannot understand this movement toward victimization. They are pioneers of the prairie. These are tough people whose grandparents were tough and great-grandparents were tough."
Heitkamp responded by invoking an incident of sexual misconduct affecting her family itself:
"I think it's wonderful that his wife has never had an experience, and good for her, and it's wonderful his mom hasn't. My mom did. And I think it affected my mom her whole life. And it didn't make her less strong."
Cramer's remarks are just the latest in a long line of derogatory comments he has made, but if recent polling is accurate, they haven't done him enough damage to sink his campaign, at least not yet.
Meanwhile, Heitkamp is out with a new spot where she tells the audience why she voted against confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Heitkamp speaks directly to the camera and begins by saying she thinks the audience "should hear exactly from me" why she voted the way she did, declaring, "First off, honestly, I don't think he told the truth. And even if he did, he showed himself to be too biased to be impartial."
Heitkamp continues by saying she voted for Neil Gorsuch, so she knows there are "many other conservative judges who can fill this job without tearing our country apart." She concludes by declaring she thinks a senator "has to put politics aside and do what's right for our country."
3Q Fundraising
You can keep track of all the $1 million-plus House fundraising quarters announced so far right here.
- NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D): $7.1 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand
- WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): $6 million raised, $5 million cash on hand
- GA-Gov: Stacey Abrams (D): $10.2 million raised, $4.9 million cash on hand; Brian Kemp (R): $11.7 million raised, $6.6 million cash on hand
- AZ-08: Hiral Tipirneni (D): $916,000 raised, $469,000 cash on hand
- MN-08: Joe Radinovich (D): $1.25 million raised
- NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D): $2.7 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand
- NY-02: Liuba Grechen Shirley (D): $715,000 raised
- NY-27: Nate McMurray (D): $475,000 raised
Senate
● OH-Sen, NY-19: The political arm of the National Association of Realtors is spending $900,000 on a TV buy in support of Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and $475,000 on TV for GOP Rep. John Faso.
● TX-Sen: Ending Spending has made a new $950,000 ad buy to oppose Democrat Beto O'Rourke. There's no copy of any ad available yet.
● VA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine looks very safe against Confederate fanboy Corey Stewart, but he's still going up with his first negative spot. The ad stars a woman named Maggie Hansford who lives in Prince William County, where Stewart is the chair of the board of supervisors. Hansford tells the audience that while opioid overdoses were rising at home, Stewart "skipped a vote on opioids to campaign in Alabama for accused child predator Roy Moore, the guy who said America was 'great' during slavery, and who said repealing women's voting rights would 'eliminate many problems.'"
● Senate: This week’s look at the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast finds the Democrats in somewhat worse shape than last week, on track to hold 49 seats on Election Day instead of 51. But, as an indication of how much the Senate is on a knife’s edge, that’s entirely because of two polls, one in Missouri and one in Tennessee, that pushed the Democratic candidate’s average in each of those states from very narrowly winning to very narrowly losing.
● Polls:
Florida Southern is the first pollster to give Scott a lead in about three weeks, though most surveys have found a tight race. YouGov is also out with the best poll for Team Red in Tennessee in three months, though Fox recently gave Blackburn a 5-point edge.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: New campaign fundraising reports show both Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis have been raising money hand over fist. Gillum and his allied PAC pulled in $16.4 million since the Aug. 28 primary, including $3 million from the DGA. Meanwhile, DeSantis and his allied committee raised $12.4 million, while the RGA pumped $4 million into Florida Facts, another pro-DeSantis group, and has pledged to spend up to $10 million on his behalf.
● KY-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear has announced he's raised $672,000, with another $20,000 self-funded, since he kicked off his campaign against GOP Gov. Matt Bevin in July. Beshear ended the quarter with $588,000 in the bank for next year's contest.
● NY-Gov: On Friday, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo accepted the nomination of the progressive Working Families Party. The WFP had previously nominated his Democratic primary challenger, Cynthia Nixon, under New York's unusual "fusion" system, where candidates can be nominated by multiple parties and have their vote totals combined. Getting off the ballot once nominated is exceptionally difficult in New York, so the WFP had to nominate Nixon for a safely blue state Assembly seat in Manhattan, for which she says she won't campaign and has in fact endorsed Democratic incumbent Deborah Glick.
Despite its long feud with Cuomo, the WFP made this move to ensure it can retain its ballot line for the next four years: Its gubernatorial candidate needs to win 50,000 votes in order to do so, something that might not have happened with Nixon no longer actively in the race. At the same time, it removes a small risk to Cuomo by reducing the likelihood of protest voters opting for Nixon. But that risk was very small indeed: Republican nominee Marc Molinaro has only $211,000 in cash on hand, which is a comically small sum for a state as big and expensive as New York. A recent Siena poll showed Cuomo holding off Molinaro 50-28, with Nixon taking 10.
● Polls:
Remington's Kansas poll was done for the state PAC Kansans for Jobs and Opportunity, but it's not clear what its interest is in this race. In any case, the few polls we've seen here have all shown a very tight race. Over in Oklahoma, the GOP firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass says they have no client.
House
● CA-21: Back in late September, it turns out the DCCC did a coordinated ad buy with Democrat TJ Cox, despite this race not getting much attention from national groups. The spot attacks Republican Rep. David Valadao for standing with Trump "99 percent," blasting him for supporting Trump's "horrible healthcare plan," his "hateful immigration policies," and his "devastating stranglehold on our water."
● CA-45: GOP Rep. Mimi Walters voted for the leadership's tax bill over the vocal objections of real estate interest groups, and they're now spending against her. The National Association of Realtors, a group that spends plenty of money for candidates from both parties, has deployed $410,000 in mailers for Democrat Katie Porter, while the California Realtors PAC has spent $707,000 on mail and digital ads for Porter or against Walters.
● MI-07: Despite first winning his seat by ousting a more moderate incumbent in a primary, Rep. Tim Walberg is the latest hard-right Republican in a red-leaning district to run ads touting his supposed bipartisan bona fides, saying, "I believe in bipartisan solutions." He highlights a bill to combat the opioid crisis and takes credit for co-sponsoring legislation to promote medical research, noting that Barack Obama signed it into law. Walberg has spent much of his career loudly and proudly opposing Obama, and back in 2010, he even questioned whether Obama was an American citizen.
● NC-02: The Congressional Leadership Fund has launched a TV ad attacking Democrat Linda Coleman over late property tax payments, claiming she has missed the deadline for paying her taxes "over 60 times" yet repeatedly voted to raise taxes as a state legislator. However, the CLF of course omits that North Carolina often gives a grace period of several weeks to several months during which interest won't accrue, making the original deadline effectively a "soft" deadline. Indeed, Roll Call reports that Coleman exceeded the grace period on just eight of those 63 occasions and incurred an interest penalty of only $500.
● OH-01: The Credit Union National Association's CULAC PAC has placed a $200,000 buy for TV and radio ads boosting Republican Rep. Steve Chabot, with that buy including production costs.
● PA-16, PA-17, VA-10: Medium Buying reports that the DCCC has canceled their ad reservations for the final week of the campaign in both the Pittsburgh and the D.C. media markets, though they still have TV buys in place in both areas through Oct. 15. According to AdvertisingAnalytics, these cancellations amount to $305,000 worth of ads in Pittsburgh and $843,000 in Washington.
The Pittsburgh market is home to Pennsylvania's 17th District, where major GOP groups have abandoned GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus. However, it's worth noting that about a third of Pennsylvania's 16th, an Erie-based seat where national Democrats recently started advertising against GOP Rep. Mike Kelly, is located in the Pittsburgh market.
The D.C. cutbacks are another sign that Team Blue is feeling good about Jennifer Wexton's campaign against GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in Virginia's 10th. House Majority PAC also recently canceled $1 million, while Comstock's would-be allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have refused to buy up any airtime here. However, Comstock's actual allies at the NRCC are still spending millions on this seat.
● TX-23: Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is out with a response ad to the GOP's many spots. Ortiz Jones declares that GOP Rep. Will Hurd has been attacking her "for everything from my service to my name." She declares that "San Antonio is my home. I graduated from John Jay High School. I'm an Iraq War and Air Force veteran." She continues by saying she served where the country needed her, while Hurd "is on the attack because he doesn't want to talk" about his votes against health care, education, and "our opportunities."
● WI-01: The Congressional Leadership Fund has debuted a TV ad that calls Democrat Randy Bryce a "deadbeat dad" for failing to pay child support for nearly two years. However, the spot ignores the fact that the delinquent sums only amounted to $1,257, which he ultimately paid off, and his campaign has previously argued that Bryce and his ex-wife had made sure they met all of their son's needs.
● House: Independence USA, which is Mike Bloomberg's super PAC, has new digital ad buys for Democrats in several House races:
- FL-27: $109,000
- MI-08: $205,000
- MI-11: $605,000
- NJ-11: $302,000
- PA-06: $175,000
- VA-10: $307,000
- WA-08: $615,000
The buy in Michigan's 11th is the same one we note in our House polling item below.
● Polls:
- CA-39: Tulchin Research (D) for Gil Cisneros: Gil Cisneros (D): 48, Young Kim (R): 47 (Aug.: 53-42 Cisneros)
- IL-06: Garin Hart Yang (D) for Sean Casten: Sean Casten (D): 49, Peter Roskam (R-inc): 44 (Sept.: 47-44 Casten)
- IL-13: GBA Strategies (D) for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan: Rodney Davis (R-inc): 49, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D): 48 (Sept.: 51-46 Davis)
- MI-11: Siena for the New York Times: Haley Stevens (D): 45, Lena Epstein (R): 38
- NC-09: Siena for the New York Times: Mark Harris (R): 47, Dan McCready (D): 42
- NC-09: SurveyUSA for Civitas Institute (R): McCready (D): 45, Harris (R): 41, Jeff Scott (L): 3 (July: 43-36-3 McCready)
- NM-02: Tarrance Group (R) for Yvette Herrell: Yvette Herrell (R): 49, Xochitl Torres-Small (D): 45
- TX-23: GS Strategy Group (R) for the Congressional Leadership Fund: Will Hurd (R-inc): 55, Gina Ortiz Jones (D): 30
- TX-31: Siena for the New York Times: John Carter (R-inc): 53, MJ Hegar (D): 38
Tulchin's poll for Cisneros is worrying for a few reasons. The survey shows a big drop for Cisneros since the Congressional Leadership Fund began airing TV ads accusing him of sexual harassment (the woman who made the accusations publicly withdrew her allegations last week, and the CLF soon pulled their ads on the topic).
We've also noted before that Tulchin has produced some very eye-popping polls showing Democrats performing well in historically Republican seats, so it's notable that this new survey doesn't show Team Blue performing so well. However, the two independent polls taken in September very much disagree about the state of this race. A mid-September Monmouth poll found Kim ahead 51-41, while a recent poll from UC Berkeley gave Cisneros a 49-48 edge, which is the same margin as Tulchin finds now.
Over in Illinois' 13th District, a previously unreleased GBA poll from the second week of September found Davis up 51-46. We haven't seen any other polls since the spring, but outside groups from both parties have been spending here.
This is the first poll we've seen for Michigan's 11th District, an open seat in the Detroit suburbs that backed Trump 50-45. Interestingly, neither the NRCC nor the CLF has spent here, so it's possible they're seeing similar numbers showing them in bad shape; however, the Trump-inspired super PAC America First Action has deployed $612,000 so far. On the Democratic side, the DCCC has spent $730,000 so far, while EMILY's List and Independent USA have deployed $577,000 and $641,000, respectively.
While the Tarrance poll for Herrell does give her the lead in New Mexico's 2nd, it still doesn't find her in very strong shape for a seat Trump carried 50-40. A recent Siena poll gave Torres-Small a 46-45 lead, though a poll for the Albuquerque Journal had Herrell up 48-41. Major outside groups on both sides have been spending here in recent weeks.
FiveThirtyEight's polling database says the CLF's survey of Texas' 23rd was done by GS Strategy Group. The only other poll we've seen here was a Siena survey that had Hurd ahead 51-43. So far the NRCC and CLF have spent a combined $1.89 million, while House Majority PAC has deployed only $26,000. However, EMILY's List has spent close to $550,000 here.
Siena is also out with the first independent poll we've seen from Texas' 31st, a suburban Austin seat that backed Trump 54-41. The sample finds GOP Sen. Ted Cruz leading 52-43 here. In September, Hager released a poll giving Carter just a 46-42 edge, and the Republican incumbent responded with a survey showing him ahead 54-33.
Grab Bag
● Early Voting: Early voting is already underway in eight states (Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming), and it starts this week in another eight—including the biggest of them all:
- Monday, Oct. 8: California, Iowa, and Maine
- Tuesday, Oct. 9: Montana and Nebraska
- Wednesday, Oct. 10: Arizona, Indiana, and Ohio
You can find our full calendar of early voting dates here.
Ad Roundup
