If this CNN poll is what a GOP surge looks like, we'll take it!

The first data points on the post-Kavanaugh Republican surge are looking good—for Democrats. As we noted Monday night, the enthusiasm gap favored those who opposed Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation by fully 18 points in CNN’s latest poll.

Tuesday the outlet released the poll’s generic ballot numbers, showing Democrats with a 13-point advantage (54 – 41 percent) and a yawning 30-point advantage among women, while losing men by 5 points.

The cautionary note is always that this is one poll, the election is still four weeks away and Trump is a rolling disaster, so who knows what we’ll even be talking about in the final week? But if this is a GOP “surge,” we’ll take it. And look at how it compares to CNN’s midterm election polling from this week in previous years—two of these polls are not like the others. 

CNN POLL
Oct. 4-7
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Democrat Republican

Now 54% 41%
October 2014 47% 46%
October 2010 45% 52%
October 2006 58% 37%
October 2002 48% 47%

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 9, 2018

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