I was one of many on this site who kept swatting down attempts to talk about candidates for 2020 until after the Mid-terms. It would’ve been a distraction. We needed to keep laser-focused on retaking the House, doing as well as we could in the Senate, flipping governors’ mansions, etc. Well, vote counting and lawsuits are still happening regarding AZ & FL senate races, run-offs are happening in the MS B Senate race, possibly in the GA governor’s race (definitely in the race for GA SecState), and there is vote counting and a recount happening in the FL governor’s race. So, in one sense, the Mid-terms are not over. Trump is stirring up his brownshirts (as expected)—and we already have fights to protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
It never lets up in the era of Trumpist mis-rule. But this is still a good time (or as good as we are going to get) to look at our likely field of POTUS candidates. It is likely to be a crowded primary. I will discuss each possibility below as if they will be campaigning against Trump. If he’s in prison or decides he did enough to MAGA the 1st time, or loses in a primary against Romney or Nikki Haley, etc., obviously our challenges change. But, for right now, we have to assume Trump will campaign for a second term—which is scary because most incumbents since WWII get a second term—only my beloved Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush were denied a 2nd term. (Truman and LBJ declined to run for a 2nd full term of their own.) I begin with former members of the Obama era:
- Michelle Obama: Extremely unlikely. While she has become comfortable campaigning for others and definitely likes to make an impact on society, Michelle has consistently shied away from any elected office. She has rejected the Hillary Clinton model (not Hillary herself) and refused to be a candidate for office. And while she is hugely popular and a charismatic speaker (and vastly more qualified than Trump), she would be subject to attacks that this would simply be a way to give Barack a 3rd term, etc. Cross this possibility off your list. I brought it up only because it would come up in the comments section. I expect to find both Barack and Michelle on the campaign trail—but not for her.
- Former Vice President Joe Biden: Extremely likely. Biden has a ton of positives: Experience, popularity. In fact, other than the Obamas, Biden likely polls as the most popular Democrat in the nation. If he announces early and announces a young, charismatic running mate such as Kamala Harris (see below), I could see a path to the nomination and WH for him. He has weaknesses, such as his infamous ability to speak gaffes—but in the age of Trump that marks him as sincere. He would need a more progressive agenda than he’s ever campaigned on before (and embody that in someone like Harris as a running mate). But he appeals to white working class folk—and we do need some of their votes. They are too many for us to simply gift them all to Trump. Biden doesn’t have to win a majority of white working class people, but if he can get 40-45% (rather than Hillary’s low numbers), it would help us take the Rust Belt—possibly even including OH. Biden would also be able to help us repair our frazzled international alliances perhaps faster than any other candidate. A large part of me thinks his best shot past in 2016, but I think it likely he runs and that he could be a formidable candidate.
- Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Likely. Holder said directly in an interview with Rachel Maddow a few months back that he was considering such a run and that he would make a decision after the mid-terms and after seeing who else would step forward. Holder has never held elective office, so I don’t know what kind of campaigner he’d be, nor what kind of platform he’d put forward. His low key, calm speaking style would be mocked as “low energy” by Trump, but it might make him look far more presidential. He could easily contrast his approach to respect for the rule of law with Trump’s lawlessness.
- Former Secretary of State John Kerry: I don’t think it likely that Kerry runs, but he could. He’d be a wonderful POTUS, especially in foreign policy. The immediate knock on him would be that he couldn’t even beat W, how would he beat Trump’s cult following? Frankly, I think we need a more charismatic nominee. Kerry. But he could be drafted to run and he did come very close once.
- Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton: I REALLY hope she doesn’t run again. I don’t want Bernie (see below) to run again, either. I think Trump wins in any kind of rematch situation. Qualified: Hell, yes! And she tends to put forward pragmatic, progressive platforms that, if enacted, would greatly benefit the country. Hillary is a policy wonk—at least as much if not more than her husband. Unfortunately, unlike Bill, she is not a natural campaigner and we very much need that for 2020 if Trump is on the ticket. No, she did not get a fair shake. I don’t care, I don’t need to see her lose a second time which could lead to the destruction of the nation.
- Former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates: A native of GA, her name is more often floated to challenge Sonny Perdue (R-Asshole) for U.S. Senate in ‘20, but if Russiagate becomes a major issue in ‘20, as is likely, the contrast between Yates trying to save our democracy from Russian attack with Trump’s selling us out to Putin could make Yates a very compelling candidate.
Next up: Sitting U.S. Senators:
- Bernie Sanders (I-VT): I like Bernie, I really do. I love his Medicare For All proposal (which has gained in popularity with the general public and elected Democrats) and his tuition free university. Unfortunately, 50% of the country says it would never vote for a socialist—and Bernie does a terrible job of describing the difference between a democratic socialist and Hugo Chavez. He also tends to absorb matters of racial justice and gender justice under economic justice. Finally, I don’t want a repeat of 2016. But it is likely that he runs. I have no idea how well he’d do in a crowded primary, unlike 2016 when no one wanted Hillary to be crowned the nominee without a primary.
- Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): Warren is definitely running. She has a campaign book out. She took the DNA test to try to put to rest the faux controversy over her ancestry (which it didn’t—anymore than Obama’s birth certificate put to rest the fake birther conspiracy), and she has put forward some great bills that will form key planks in a platform: One to tackle corruption in DC politics and another to reform capitalism and tackle income inequality. Unlike Bernie, Warren has specifically tied her economic justice proposals to the way racial minorities are doubly disadvantaged. She’s a fiery campaigner and not afraid to take it to Trump. Born and raised in OK and getting her undergrad degree from the University of Houston, Warren knows how to connect with middle America. She has an excellent chance of becoming the nominee. To win against Trump, she’d probably need a running mate who was either Latinx or African-American—and definitely younger than her. I also want her to speak out more on foreign policy.
- Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): Prior to the controversy over her quick call for Al Franken’s resignation, I would’ve said that Gillibrand’s chances of running were high. Now, I don’t know. If she does run, that controversy—rightly or wrongly—makes her shot at the nomination much harder. Gillibrand went from being a centrist Represenative of upstate NY to a fairly liberal Senator. She took the lead in getting the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell through the Senate. (That’s no longer even controversial, but it was a huge fight at the time and Gillibrand took it on.) She has also been a champion against sexual assault, especially in the military. She’s younger and, if not for the Franken thing, I’d give her good odds.
- Kamala Harris (D-CA): She’s young, progressive, and charismatic. She’s of mixed heritage, both Asian-American and African-American and so looks more like the America of the future than of the past. The Young Turks crowd thinks establishment Dems are “forcing her” on the party, but I don’t see that. She hasn’t been in the Senate long enough to have accomplished much, but neither had Obama. She’s co-sponsored Medicare for All and been a champion of prison and sentencing reform. She has a brilliant legal mind that I would rather see on the Supreme Court, but I think she’s likely running and I think she has a good shot at POTUS.
- Corey Booker (D-NJ): He’s young, dynamic, and charismatic. Many find him too closely tied to the financial industry, but he doesn’t speak or act like a corporate Dem. I find it hard to judge his chances, but I do think it’s good for the party and the country that we are likely to have several persons on color running for POTUS this time. The nation needs to see this as normal, not a once in a lifetime thing with Obama. Booker is single and in this homophobic society, some will count that against him. (If he’s gay, he’s in the closet and I find that more problematic.)
- Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). Decorated combat veteran of Iraq from a long line of military service going back on her father’s side to the Revolutionary War. Asian-American, has disabilities thanks to her military service. The nation hasn’t elected someone who uses (mostly) a wheel chair since FDR, but Duckworth could do it. She’s a progressive with a pragmatic bent and her military sacrifice contrasts well with Trump’s cowardice and saber rattling (“Cadet Bonespurs”). She can get under his skin. I can see her as at least a running mate, if not the top of the ticket.
- Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Twice rumored to be on Obama’s short-list for the Supreme Court, Sen. Klobuchar , like Sen. Harris, is a powerful member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She’s a workhorse with a solid Midwestern base. Al Franken definitely wanted her to run for POTUS even as others wanted Franken himself to run. But although Klobuchar is extremely likable,she is not a very exciting speaker. I can see her more as a VP candidate than at the topof the ticket.
- Sherrod Brown (D-OH): Brown is a true progressive who was easily re-elected last Tues. even as everything else in OH stayed VERY red. For that reason alone, Brown is in this discussion. But he likes Trump’s tariffs which won’t fly everywhere. He does connect well to white working class folks, but he is very low key in speech and demeanor, so I am skeptical of him as a powerful campaigner in the era of Trump. He might be a good VP selection, but we’d lose his senate seat since Cordray lost the OH governor’s race.
- Jeff Merkeley (D-OR). Another true progressive with an ease at reaching “common people,” Merkeley helped generate strong public opposition to Trump’s caging of children kidnapped at the border. Whether he can translate that on the campaign trail to an immigration policy that is decent, humane, and resonates with the public against Trumpist fearmongering, remains to be seen.
Governors and former governors: This nation has raised far more governors to the White House than Senators.
- Former Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA). I had hoped Patrick would run in 2016. He’s been gone from the national stage for 2 years. But he was the 1st African-American governor of MA, was popular for most of that time (considering there was a deep recession that cost other Dem governors their jobs at the same time). He has a good personal narrative and a history of good governance. I’ve never heard him give a speech, so I don’t know how charismatic he is on the campaign trail.
- Former Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD). In 2016, before campaign season really started, I was very big on O’Malley. He’d campaigned as a true progressive and won 2 very successful terms as governor of MD. Both times he campaigned on abolishing the death penalty in MD (a cause dear to my heart since the early 1970s—and more so as DNA has revealed how very often the innocent are convicted) and he did it in his 2nd term. But on the ‘16 campaign trail he came across as milktoast. His personality was drowned out by Hillary and Bernie, never mind by Trump. Also, after Black Lives Matter took off, it was revealed that much of Baltimore’s police abuse of African-Americans took place during O’Malley’s time as mayor. I think that would still be a huge problem in ‘20.
- Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO). Hickenlooper is too moderate to excite me, but he is a successful 2 term governor of a recently-blue (formerly purple) key state that is still home to both the Air Force Academy and some of the organizations of the Religious Right (e.g., Focus on the Family). CO cannot be taken for granted. Hickenlooper as a VP could make sure the state is locked down and help defeat Corey Gardner (R-CO) as we work to flip the U.S. Senate.
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY): Cuomo is WAY too much the corporate Democrat to excite me and he blocked NY from progressive legislation for years by helping create and sustain the Independent Democratic Caucus or IDC, a group of turn-coat NY state Dems who caucused with the GOP to keep the NY state senate effectively GOP-controlled. They were wiped out last Tues. and now Cuomo will be forced to govern with a fully Democratic legislature. I still don’t want him as our nominee, but I think it’s 50/50 chances that he runs.
- Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-CA). Newsome has just been elected after being Lt. Gov. to Jerry Brown, but his name has been floated, so I’m listing him.
- Gov. Kate Brown (D-OR) Progressive who has had to clean up the mess left by a corrupt Dem. governor --and then get elected in her own right last Tues. She would be the 1st openly bi-sexual nominee and the Religious Right would go after her tooth and nails. They’d also attack her for being “spiritual, but not religious.” But after her victory last Tues., I wouldn’t dismiss her chances if she decided to run.
- Former Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT): who is probably unknown outside MT, has announced a POTUS bid for 2020 according to comments.
Members of the U. S. House of Representatives:
[Updated]
- Richard Ojeda (D-WV) lost his bid to win House District WV-04, and he actually voted for Trump in 2016, but for some reason that escapes me, he just announced his presidential bid for 2020.
- Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA-28): He will now be the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee and has become a thorn in Trump's side. Schiff is compelling on television, but he is very low key and I can't see him on the debate stage with Trump. Schiff goes with logic; Trump counters with pure theatre and outrage.
- Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA-15): Another judiciary committee member and frequent Trump critic. Much of the same shortcomings with the idea of Schiff as nominee also apply to Swalwell, although Swalwell is younger and more telegenic.
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI-02): Gabbard is a member of the House blue dogs and she is the first Hindu member of Congress. She is exploring a run for POTUS in 2020.
It’s been a long time since someone went straight from the House to the White House, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen again. Here are a few
Others:
- Beto O’Rourke (D-TX): With people pointing to the way Lincoln lost the Senate race to Douglass before going on to become the first Republican President, there are already strong calls to “Run, Beto, Run!” Personally, I think he would be better off running for Cornyn’s Senate seat in ‘20 after he has created a statewide infrastructure and with the increased turnout of a POTUS year. But, that’s just me. I am also not persuaded by the Lincoln analogy since Senators were not yet popularly elected (but chosen by state legislatures) when Lincoln lost to Douglass after a series of debates over slavery and, especially, the question of expanding slavery into the Western territories. But Beto does have a national profile, now, and is excellent in speeches and debate. He’s a progressive who can reach out to almost anyone. I could see him as VP nominee easily, putting TX in play. Beto is strong on several issues I care deeply about: gun safety, immigration reform (including abolishing/replacing ICE, the DREAM Act), labor rights, healthcare expansion, debt-free college. He cares about climate change, but I haven’t seen a concrete plan for how to tackle it from him.
- Joachim and/or Julian Castro (D-TX). [Corrected after seeing the comments, thanks.] One of these twins will run against Greg Abbott for TX governor and the other will either run for POTUS or for Cornyn’s Senate seat. We need to have a huge Latinx turnout in ‘20 and for 80% of it to go to Dems. Many believe the Castros to be too moderate, but that could simply be because they backed Hillary over Bernie. I don’t know. I want to see and hear more from them.
- Michael Bloomberg as a Democrat: Just. No. Please.
- Tom Steyer, Billionaire. Better than Bloomberg.
- Oprah Winfrey. Count me among those not happy with the strategy of “Let’s beat a right wing celebrity with a progressive, smarter celebrity with just as little experience.” Having said that, I’ve been impressed with Orpah’s efforts on behalf of Stacey Abrams (a little earlier might have done even more good) and her ability to enthuse a crowd is well known. She’s a philanthropist, but when she calls herself an independent, she isn’t kidding. On many subjects, she’s more in line with Republicans than Democrats—including taxes. I think it unlikely she’s running, but I have to list her as a possibility.
These are the likeliest possibilities I can see right now. I have no doubt others will be suggested in the comments. I do not fear large primary fields—we tend to get better candidates that way. I do NOT want to see a replay of the huge infighting of 2016 and the refusal to reunite after. Whatever else is true, we MUST emerge from the DNC united and on fire to win.
No flirtations with 3rd parties. No half-hearted (or late) endorsements. No brokered conventions.
Our nation—and maybe the planet—depends on us getting 20202 right, folks.
Update, Replies to Comments: We do have to win the Midwest while attempting to expand the map into the Sunbelt (Southwest and fringes of Dixie). I don’t think that necessarily means that no one from the coasts can do that. Trump is from Queens, for pete’s sake. Elizabeth Warren represents MA, but she is from OK (by way of TX and then NJ) and still has an OK accent. She connects very well to both young people and the White Working Class. (When my millennial daughters thought that Hillary was going to name her as her running mate, they grew much more excited. This was deflated when Hillary named Kaine.)
We need someone who can move crowds. I wish we didn’t, but we do. I’ve never seen Klobuchar do this, as much as I like her on policy. I think she was too Minnesota Nice to Kavanaugh. She has a prosecutor’s mindset, as does Harris. We need a warrior for the people. I think both Harris and Duckworth fill that role. So does Beto, but I still think he’d be better off running for Cornyn’s senate seat.
The Castro brothers can excite crowds and we definitely want Latinx in for us at 90% plus and maximum turnout. But neither has been on the national stage since 2012, so we would need to see early on in the primaries if either could connect. On the other hand, both would make great running mates.
Tammy Duckworth checks several boxes: Woman, Asian-American, mid-Westerner, veteran and decorated war heroine with disabilities from that war—even while having been against the invasion of Iraq. But she might need someone like Steve Bullock or Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown to help her connect to the white working class. We need someone whom labor LOVES and trusts and someone who can get farmers to realize how much Trump is screwing them. (If the economy weakens, this will help.)
If Sherrod Brown is our nominee (and wins) we lose the OH Senate seat since Cordray lost, damn it. Warren doesn’t face the same prospect in MA since MA requires a special election, not an appointment. (The legislature changed this after Ted Kennedy died with a different GOP governor in charge. If MA, VT, and MD would quit voting for “moderate” GOP governors, we’d all be better off.) As long as MA doesn’t run Coakley again, I think we can keep Warren’s seat.
Most of our likely nominees would need to speak more on foreign policy, now. A large primary field could help us get someone who can connect to everyone—but our nominee needs to be bolder in VP choices than Hillary was. Tim Kaine’s a great person, but he excited ZERO people. We already had VA in ‘16, so he wasn’t bringing in a key state. And, yes, he’s fluent in Spanish, but Latinx would rather someone who actually IS Latinx rather than a Gringo who is bilingual. Much to think about and the groundwork needs to be set NOW for the IA caucuses and the NH primary.