Donald Trump repels people with a college education—women more than men. But still, "Trump is kryptonite in the suburbs," retiring GOP Rep. Ryan Costello told Bloomberg. Based on nationwide exit polls, Democrats won college educated whites by 8 points this cycle after losing them to Trump by 3 points in 2016. Women were the driving force behind that shift, favoring Democrats by 20 points. And Costello expects Trump to collapse another 5-10 points by 2020.
"Because, look, he’s not going to be running against Hillary," he says. "Some people who tried him out may not be willing to digest that in 2020."
"Nationally, Republicans won men, whites and voters over 45 years old, while Democrats won women by an extraordinary 19 points and led among non-whites and voters under 45," writes Bloomberg.
But it's the education divide that seems to have put some new states in play while sidelining others. Whites without a college degree, men especially, favored Republicans by 34 points. That means states with larger rural, non-college educated populations are trending heavily Republican. The shift led to the defeats of Democratic senators in red states like North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana and led to a near GOP sweep in Ohio, with the notable exception of Sen. Sherrod Brown. The trend also practically takes the once swingy Buckeye State off the 2020 map for Democrats even as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin swung back toward Democrats this election.
But as Ohio leans more red, Arizona and Georgia are becoming more competitive while Nevada and Virginia are becoming more reliably blue.
Florida, however, "will be a nettlesome issue” for any Democratic nominee in 2020, says former Hillary Clinton spokesperson Brian Fallon. (As a side note, it will be interesting to see how the addition of about 1.5 million former felons and newly eligible voters in the Sunshine State changes the political environment.)
And Texas, well, at the very least Republicans can't simply take it for granted anymore.